kdc,
They have published the numbers yrs ago, I don't know if they still do, but typically the number ranges from 450-500 noms. I know for 08 it was 453 Presidential noms.
Statistically you would think that candidates have a better shot since it is approx a 20% rate compared to a 10% for an MOC slate that can be charged.
However, it is important to realize that the Presidential slate is not geo-centric, but national.
For example, people are always amazed there are so many VA cadets. The fact is VA, esp. No. VA has nationally ranked HS schools, and there are many military parents working in this area (Pentagon, Belvoir, Andrews, Quantico). The AFA does not look at their region, just the WCS.
This helps a candidate since VA is very competitive regarding noms. 700+ for an MOC is not unheard of for MOC applications.
Conversely, look at Wyoming, they are not deemed as competitive as other states, and it is possible to get all 3 noms. + presidential. The candidate could get an apptmt from them, be #88 on the WCS for presidential. They would be removed from that list, and now the #101, is 100.
Our DS's friend received no MOC noms from a state that I would not say is competitive (NC); you can get 3 from that state. He got an apptmt. via the Presidential.
It is all about the WCS and charging sources.
This is why mass mailing March occurs. Every yr they are making a giant jigsaw puzzle without ever looking at the picture. The LOAs, principals are their corners and borders. After that they start moving around the ones with multiple noms, and keep moving until every piece fits.
As it has always been stated you only need 1 nom., but try to get every nom possible that is available to you. CC will tell you, along with Flieger, myself and many other posters that we have seen candidates with 5 noms get a TWE, and candidates with 1 get a BFE.
The only thing in a candidates control is to submit the best packet they can submit. This is a very fluid situation, and will be for at least 5 more months.