From the numbers I have seen, this year Admissions has been much pickier about the number of files they have qualified. If my memory serves me correctly, there were over 2500 qualified files last year but this year there are only ~1900. Last year Admissions offered ~1300 appointments, and around 1900 were accepted.
So in all, I believe the chances of qualified applicants being appointed increased this year since the pool is smaller. But someone please correct me if I am incorrect. I know that this year they were extremely aggressive about eliminating files they did not think were competitive.
I would agree, last year 2629 qualified, this year 1902. What no one knows is the competitive landscape, underrepresented pool composition, will the recent announcement allowing women into combat increase female appointments above the typical 15% etc. We will not learn the answers to these questions until the Class of 2017 Profile is published in August/September. The wait continues, finalize Plan B.