Is there a chance a cadet candidate can receive a LOA and be 3Q'd... but denied a nomination?
Some MOC boards will play games to maximize yield for their congressional district. One school of thought surrounding LOA and Recruited Athlete is that the school has declared significant interest in the candidate and the SA will find that student a NOM. It is not unheard of for the board to leave the LOA/RA off their slate and force the SA to use an alternate NOM path for that student. While not especially friendly to the process, it is one way a MOC can gain additional students at the school. Meaning - nominate your highest qualified people and let the SA find a NOM for those with LOA/RA. This would net the MOC more students at the academy than their typical allocation.
As soon as the MOC lists the LOA/RA on a NOM slate, it can be charged to the congressional district and save one of the alternate NOM paths for another potentially less qualified candidate who has is LOA/RA but failed to net a NOM from their MOC.
Scenario:
Board nominates 10 unranked students
1) Recruited Athlete
2) LOA
3) LOA
4-10) Highly qualified students
SA receives the slate and then charges the RA to the district, and then finds alternate noms for the two LOA candidates, and then that leaves (potentially) the other highly qualified students who have a NOM without a home this cycle because the MOC slot was charged to the recruited athlete.
In the alternate universe where the board strongly believed the SA would "find a NOM" for the others, the MOC would net 4 students and not just the 3.
To be clear, I am not advocating for an approach that assumes a qualified candidate with find a NOM via another path. I prefer not to gamble on the future of great students.
In the same vein of thought, an additional potential category of candidates that potentially would be in the same scenario would be someone who is currently a sponsored prep school student.
In my experience on MOC boards, these scenarios are discussed but
I did not experience anyone being left off a list because the panel wanted the SA to find another way.