Keep in mind how the overall admission process works. The board does not meet and vote "yes" or "no" on an appointment. They basically say qualified and move to the next step in the process based on your WCS. Being a recruited athlete will help your WCS as you should do very well in the athletic component and you probably get a few extra points if the coach checks the "recruited" box on your application.
You have to be 3Q and have a place to be "charged" to. There are no unlimited slots and while the "Blue Chip" is a mystery you can make some safe assumptions that these individuals are slotted as additional appointees if they do not win their nomination slate. Many different interest are competing for these last few slots and they are rationed based on the perceived importance to the academy. Football or under-represented diversity candidates probably have more weight than the track coach.
All coaches would like a team of 5 Star recruits at the beginning of each recruiting season but as the process moves along, they start balancing what they can get into the program. I have a daughter who has been a preferred walked on at two different Division I track programs in the last two years. She is not one of these 5 Star recruits but when the coaches do not get these super stars they still need to fill the team. While she may never make the NCAA Finals, she has helped her team compete and done well for herself.
To answer your final question, there are no guarantees till you have an appointment as there are many different things that influence the process.
That completely answers my question, thank you so much!
The real question is what nominations do your currently have and how competitive of a candidate are you? That will give you a good idea at your chances