USNA02,
Is right on the mark. Retention rates will vary depending on the career field. As a flier you cannot five and dive, you have to do 8 after winging, which really means 9.
Here's the little known secret that has an impact on officers, every time you PCS, get promoted or go to a "specialty school" you will sign on for a commitment that most likely will run concurrent with your original.
Here's how it works:
1. Graduate owe 5 active duty yrs, YR 2 and 3 you decide o get your Masters on the military's dime...you now owe 3 from the last day of registering, and are at 6.
2. Yr 4 you make O-3, you now are at 7 because you owe 3 from that pin on date. You PCS at this time, but no "official" time is owed because it is concurrent.
3. Yr 6 you PCS, (unless you non vol) you are now at 9 for that PCS.
4. Yr. 9 you are up for O-4, which brings you to 12 if you accept that rank.
5. Yr 11 you get PME in residence RI here we come, which brings you to 15.
6. Yr 14 you are up for O-5, and say to yourself what the heck, stay 5 more yrs and I get 50% forever.
People like 02 are in that window where they need to make a decision, the problem is many by this time may now be married with small children. You give a 1 yr notice that you are leaving, when the economy is great people will bolt, when it is bad, they will be more likely to stay for the paycheck and health insurance.
In the early 90's the economy stunk and the military had to RIF officers. In the late 90's the economy and airlines were thriving and the military had to give retention bonuses.
The retention rate is not just about the desire to leave, it is a very tangled web regarding personal life, commitments and the national economy. There just is no true % that could be given as a blanket statement. It will be personal, maybe he will say I have missed too much of my childrens life and I am tired of being deployed 6 mos out of 18. Maybe he will say, my wife's mother is single, she is an only child and battling cancer. His wife says I want to go home. Maybe, she is AD and they decide that both of them can't have military careers, thus, he says I can follow you and go corporate.
I can't speak for the USNA, but for the AF unless you do something horrific promotion(dui) to O-3 is basically guaranteed. AA has no effect on stations, it is a man power issue. You are stationed based on the needs of the military. A E-6 pilot will not be x-trained into a Hornet because he is Black, Asian or Native American, it is based on how you handle the stick. When you get to O-4 and above it is also about how you have performed over the past yrs, what positions you have had within the military. Many times this is political, but it is not based on race, it is based on the golden child system. Commander loves you, you get a DP, commanders are your make and break when it comes to a P(promote) or DP (DEF. Promote). DP you will be promoted and are fighting for schools. P you are fighting to be promoted, and schools are not in play. No School (PME) as an O-4, call it a day when you make O-5 and do your 20, because you don't get O-5 school without at least being on the O-4 PME list. No 0-5 school no chance in Hades unless you get some high award Medal of Honor, Navy Cross to make O-6.
The USNA commissioning will help you in the beginning, but once you are O-3 that becomes nominal in your progression within the military. AFter O-3 it is all about what YOU do withing your career, especially when it comes to positions and PME.