As an AFROTC Mom, I think you are wrong to assume for AF that getting a pilot slot is slim to none. This yr for VT, and our DS's school 100% that applied for rated, got rated. Granted some got CSO or UAVs, but 100% got rated.
I believe VT had 11 cadets apply and 11 got UPT. DS's had 8 or 10, and only 2 did not get UPT, 1 because of vision, the other got UAVs.
Here's the deal for either branch your OML is going to be the deciding factor. What are the parts of the OML? Big one, GPA!
This is another reason to chose your major wisely. That GPA is going to be on you like a weight regardless of scholarship or not.
DS got a pilot slot, he also is scholarship, BUT he is nor has never been a tech major. He is a govt major, a major he thoroughly enjoys and because of that he has maintained a very strong gpa his entire college career. Had he been a tech major, I am sure right now I would be a parent saying he lost his scholarship and probably his chance to be commissioned let alone UPT. Understand he had a 720 on his M SAT, and 36 M for his ACT. He can do Math and Science, but he hates doing it.
As I stated before ROTC is a small part of the equation, school is the larger part. You can love ROTC, but if you hate the school or the major you will always be in constant turmoil, and in the end it will hurt you from a ROTC position.
AFROTC is one of the more competitive scholarships out there. I would say NROTC is the most competitive. However, you need to understand this is only phase 1 in the path of getting commissioned.
Phase 2: Freshman yr
Success in ROTC every day.
~~~ PFT
~~~ Jobs in the det*
~~~ Command ranking
ROTC is not just about classes and drills, but you work up the rank like you do in the AD world. You will get evaluated on performance in these positions. They require time outside of classes and drills. You will have meetings with the command. You will write reviews of cadets. That equates into taking time away from studying which can def. ding your gpa.
Phase 3: Sophomore yr
SFT selection...this is a board like scholarships
~~~Do poorly in Phase 2 and you can expect not to get Phase 3.
~~~ AFOQT scores will be placed into the equation.
Again they are going to look at your entire packet. If you do not get SFT, you can't become a POC. No POC = no commissioning.
This yr was a harsh yr. I believe they said the avg CGPA was @3.2 for tech, and 3.4 non-tech. The selection rate was @50%. Speculation is by your yr group the pipeline will be flowing again and the rate of acceptance will increase.
Phase 4: Sr yr
Another board, this time for your career field. Notice do not pass Phase 3, and it is do not pass go!
Your ranking out of SFT will now be added into the equation for your OML.
GPA, PFT, TBAS, AFOQT, CoC rec all account for % to give you a final score.
Highest wins! That is true for all the career fields not just rated.
The twist for AFROTC is rated boards go first, and if a cadet does not get selected they are placed into the non-rated board. That is why non-rated goes later. It use to be career boards were in your JR. yr, but this was the last yr that they are supposedly doing that. Rated got theirs in March, but non-rated was pushed back to Sept.
I believe this is true since AFA cadets C2C's were informed that they will not get theirs until this summer.
As you can see it is a never ending saga. Not only that, but it is like building a house, you build upon what you achieved prior.
I would also state 2 things:
1. You have 0% chance of getting a scholarship if you don't apply! The worse thing they can do is say no!
2. Understand the AF is just starting to come out of what I call "purging". The last few yrs have been brutal. It is expected that commissioning yr group 17 will be the return of normalcy.
Do not assume anything. DS entered college in 08, at that time everyone went to SFT. Now in 11, it is dog eat dog. It changes that quickly.
AF has really cut hard re:ROTC and OCS. To the point that they canceled the OCS board last yr. You should not assume that the Army is not going through it. Clarkson stated that this yr his scholarships were drastically cut. I believe he said a few yrs back they had 20, and now they are down to 6, it might not have been him, maybe it was Marist.
The DoD budget is being chopped big time. Adm. Mullen has stated even pay for AD members is on the table. It is important to realize that ROTC comes under DoD, and sometimes it is all about timing, something you have no control over. It is a crappy economy, and a downsizing military, which makes it the perfect storm.
Never give up, but always be informed.