*rumored* Next Appointment Wave

usnahopeful0731 said:
Does anyone know of the reunited next wave of appointments that’s supposed to go out?
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I’m not sure there will be another “wave” of appointments. In past several years, history has shown more of a trickle effect. The next big “wave” will probably be twe’s mid April.
 
When I read it, it said “Regular decisions will be made on/around March 22nd” Anyone know what regular decisions are ?
 
If you look at prior years (which I've always said may or may not be a good predictor of current year), the "big wave" occurred over a 2 week period then slows down. In my uneducated opinion, last week was the 1st week of the wave, either this week or next week is the 2nd.

Also, in my uneducated opinion, good news and bad news. Good news, I think a lot of folks on this forum get appointments. Bad news, if someone doesn't get the appointment, chances realistically begin to decrease. It "ain't over till its over" but realistically chances do decrease, no other way to say it, that just hurts.
 
I agree at this point it is going to be a drip, drip, drip with very few appointments compared to the 1st 2 weeks of Mar. The big wave in the next few weeks will be TWEs.

Remember USAFA will offer @1400+ appointments with the expectation of an incoming class size of 1150. They try to get the TWEs out end of March/beginning of April because many traditional colleges will require deposits starting mid April, and USAFA wants those candidates to be able to move on to their plan B.
 
Historically, about 10% of offered appointments are reported to the Service Academy Forums. If we assume that these 10% are a representative sample of all offers of appointment, then we can create a graph for how reported appointments accumulate over time and draw conclusions about which stage the admissions cycle is in. The link below displays this information for the current admissions cycle and for a number of past cycles. Light blue represents reported appointments for the Class of 2023. You'll notice that the "wave" usually happens somewhere in March (the large jump) with a trickle of appointments leading up to and following. From what I can tell, the "wave" has already occurred, but there are still a significant number of offers of appointment that will eventually be released. This graph also shows that in past years offers have gone out as late as the end of May.

https://imgur.com/a/RBIbVVo
 
AFrpaso said:
Historically, about 10% of offered appointments are reported to the Service Academy Forums. If we assume that these 10% are a representative sample of all offers of appointment, then we can create a graph for how reported appointments accumulate over time and draw conclusions about which stage the admissions cycle is in. The link below displays this information for the current admissions cycle and for a number of past cycles. Light blue represents reported appointments for the Class of 2023. You'll notice that the "wave" usually happens somewhere in March (the large jump) with a trickle of appointments leading up to and following. From what I can tell, the "wave" has already occurred, but there are still a significant number of offers of appointment that will eventually be released. This graph also shows that in past years offers have gone out as late as the end of May.

https://imgur.com/a/RBIbVVo
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Very Nice! Thank you!
 
So do you guys believe that there will be a second wave?
 
I’m biting my fingernails over here in MO. Anxiously waiting to hear for my DS. We have two nominations to USAFA, and one to USNA. DS refuses to look on portal, he’s waiting for a call, email, or letter.
 
momoffuturecadet said:
I’m biting my fingernails over here in MO. Anxiously waiting to hear for my DS. We have two nominations to USAFA, and one to USNA. DS refuses to look on portal, he’s waiting for a call, email, or letter.
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I believe the notification is on the portal. I’ve heard some that said they received a call from their nominating source. I’ve also heard that folks received emails to go into their portal. It maybe a good thing to check. Good luck!!!
 
ginapenny said:
momoffuturecadet said:
I’m biting my fingernails over here in MO. Anxiously waiting to hear for my DS. We have two nominations to USAFA, and one to USNA. DS refuses to look on portal, he’s waiting for a call, email, or letter.
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I believe the notification is on the portal. I’ve heard some that said they received a call from their nominating source. I’ve also heard that folks received emails to go into their portal. It maybe a good thing to check. Good luck!!!
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I know if it were me I’d be checking everyday, but he wants to wait for an email alert.
 
momoffuturecadet said:
ginapenny said:
momoffuturecadet said:
I’m biting my fingernails over here in MO. Anxiously waiting to hear for my DS. We have two nominations to USAFA, and one to USNA. DS refuses to look on portal, he’s waiting for a call, email, or letter.
Click to expand...
I believe the notification is on the portal. I’ve heard some that said they received a call from their nominating source. I’ve also heard that folks received emails to go into their portal. It maybe a good thing to check. Good luck!!!
Click to expand...
I know if it were me I’d be checking everyday, but he wants to wait for an email alert.
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as far as I can tell USAFA portal only updates once a day and that is at about 5am Eastern Time. Every time your portal updates you should get an email as well
 
WingsUp said:
So do you guys believe that there will be a second wave?
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Yes and No. The 2nd wave will most likely be the TWE wave. The BFEs impo are now in the drip, drip, drip mode.
Look at the appointment thread, only 1 was added for the 19th, but for the 8th and 13th, @50 were added.

I hope I am wrong, but being here for eons, as AFpraso stated maybe 10% at tops of all appointments are reported here. I would say it is closer to 8%. Mathematically, that means maybe there is another 150 apptmts out there. Keep hope bc you could be 1 of those 150. That is still a large number, but it is dwindling yet you can be 1 of those 1s.

The thing to remember is nobody knows how many apptmts they are going to offer. Some yrs it is as low as just under 1400, some yrs it is close to 1500. By law the SAs can only have X amt of cadets. Can't recall the number, but I want to say it is 4K.
~ If the attrition rate is lower than expected for the class of 2020 and 21, than to keep the numbers under the legal requirement they will offer less appointments for the class of 2023. If it is higher they will offer more appointments.
 
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momoffuturecadet said:
DS refuses to look on portal, he’s waiting for a call, email, or letter.
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JMPO, calls are rarities. Portals and emails come @ the same time. BFEs are the last. TWEs may come before the portal/emails.

Just a parent (Mom), but let him be and do what feels comfortable for him. I have 3 kids, my ADAF DS is the silent type. He never came home looking in the mailbox, nor checked his email/portal as far as I knew. It is hard on you, but trust me, this is the easiest part of the next 9 yrs. , 14 if they go rated.
 
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