Russia/Ukraine

Status
Not open for further replies.
P

ProudDad2022

5-Year Member
Joined
May 24, 2017
Messages
260
I searched the archives and only found 1 dead thread that mentioned this situation. Help me out....Why does Russia want to invade Ukraine? Will they invade Ukraine? What will/should we do if that happens?
(hopefully we can keep from getting too political)
 
it’s a guess

I assume Russia is concerned about only having friendly countries on their border or close by. Similar to the US and Cuba back in the day.

On an unrelated note

If Canada or Mexico are ever seen as major threats to the US I’d expect to see US troops massed on our border. Ready to “solve” the problem.

The what to do is less clear. Good war decisions are usually seen in the rear view mirror long after the fighting has stopped.

WW1 was seen to last a few weeks with few KIAs. Vietnam was a nothing burger until it was seen as major fighting that would go on for years and end with no win.

How many truly good war decisions has the US made during its history? Far far fewer than the wars we have fought.
 
THParent said:
Well, if we say things like a "minor incursion" would be one thing and an invasion would be another, then I think we green-lighted the lesser thing, whatever that is.
Click to expand...
And maybe in the rear view mirror this will be seen as the sensible position to have.

Although it’s always easier to see bad decisions play out in real time than good decisions that keep us out of combat. Those good decisions in fact may get chided by the opposition or the public as being weak.

You can’t say a “minor intrusion” is a green light for a combat response unless you have all your ducks in line and are ready to go to war. If you draw a line in the sand you better be ready to follow through.
 
Russia has for a very, very long time considered Ukraine as part of the motherland. It was Russia’s historical breadbasket, a source of agricultural riches and access to the Black Sea. That’s why it was for so long called “The Ukraine,” akin to the way we say “The Midwest.” The “the” signified a region of Greater Russia, not an independent nation.

Ukraine’s declaration of independence 30 years ago still rankles the Russians, because it removed an important bulwark from the West. Not an unreasonable fear, since Russia had been attacked countless times from that direction. Further, free Ukraine has pushed hard to be integrated into the West, as a full member of NATO and the EU. It’s not unlike if Mexico or Canada aligned itself economically and militarily with China. We’d feel that threat acutely.

None of this excuses Russia’s bellicose behavior. But it explains it. Much of what I know about Ukraine I learned from my DFIL’s autobiography. As a young boy growing up there, he escaped both the invading Nazis and the invading Soviets.

Does a Russian invasion of Ukraine directly threaten the U.S.? This brewing conflict may feel distant and peripheral, but it’s part of a much larger “game” among the three major powers. The Cold War may be over, but we remain to a large degree the world’s policeman. We project our power around the globe because our national interests are truly far-flung. This will be interesting, to say the least.
 
Last edited:
We actually discussed this issue in one of our recent leadership labs. There are so many ways to view this and analyze it. What I stress to my folks is try hard not to simply espouse a western viewpoint without considering how Russia could see this. And it's not like I don't want to be patriotic to the cause, but if you are going to get after the "why is it happening", you have to get past the notion of "why don't they just do what we want?"

As mentioned earlier, Ukraine was an agricultural and industrial boon for Russia. And they have deep internal divisions. A very nationalistic Ukraine-centric west, with a much more Russia-friendly east.

When Boris Yeltsin signaled the advent of democracy for Russia, many in Europe and the US felt as though we had reached total victory. And so, over time, we started expanding NATO, to include Poland and Romania, which are not very far from Russia. And now, we have an eye toward bringing Ukraine into NATO. From a western perspective, we are such a peace-loving, freedom-evoking country, why should anyone suspect of us of ulterior motives?

If you are Russia, however, and you are watching the map, it would appear that our desire is to bring our defensive (and offensive) capabilities to the very doorstep of Russia. We don't seem very friendly to them. And when we sail destroyers into the Black Sea, which we technically are free to do, the weapons systems there can reach significantly into Russian territory.

So, Russia would like us to stop. And to be candid, some of their recent demands make me think they don't really want to reach a peaceful solution, at least not in the near term. From where I sit now, as a country, we can't agree on what color the sky is on any given day. So, it seems to be a fool's errand to assume that the EU or NATO would really be chomping at the bit to escalate this situation. And without any political malice intended here, whenever a domestic situation seems to be flagging, our government starts looking internationally at some cause that could be unifying. (Insert lawyerly language here that states I am not representing any government position, or that of any university, yada yada yada.)

A pretty decent article from the Council on Foreign Relations is here shortly after the invasion of the Crimean Peninsula. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/uk...YFrhkMunVmgp1pxXpP4Poe_U7l65pquRoCJZUQAvD_BwE
 
I think that the "minor incursion" thing isn't a thing anymore, because the press secretary was quick to tell us what the POTUS actually meant, as usual:
Jen Psaki said:
“President Biden has been clear with the Russian President: If any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, that’s a renewed invasion, and it will be met with a swift, severe, and united response from the United States and our Allies,”
Click to expand...
 
GWU PNS said:
What I stress to my folks is try hard not to simply espouse a western viewpoint without considering how Russia could see this. And it's not like I don't want to be patriotic to the cause, but if you are going to get after the "why is it happening", you have to get past the notion of "why don't they just do what we want?"
Click to expand...
Really appreciate your perspective, @GWU PNS. As you know far better than I, to truly understand your adversary, you must put yourself in their shoes.

Looking at our own history: Think of the Monroe Doctrine. Think of the Cuban Missile Crisis. For that matter, think of our invasion of Grenada. Now compare the threat that tiny Grenada posed to us, to the threat that a westward leaning Ukraine poses to Russia.
 
MidCakePa said:
Russia has for a very, very long time considered Ukraine as part of the motherland. It was Russia’s historical breadbasket, a source of agricultural riches and access to the Black Sea. That’s why it was for so long called “The Ukraine,” akin to the way we say “The Midwest.” The “the” signified a region of Greater Russia, not an independent nation.

Ukraine’s declaration of independence 30 years ago still rankles the Russians, because it removed an important bulwark from the West. Not an unreasonable fear, since Russia had been attacked countless times from that direction. Further, free Ukraine has pushed hard to be integrated into the West, as a full member of NATO and the EU. It’s not unlike if Mexico or Canada aligned itself economically and militarily with China. We’d feel that threat acutely.

None of this excuses Russia’s bellicose behavior. But it explains it. Much of what I know about Ukraine I learned from my DFIL’s autobiography. As a young boy growing up there, he escaped both the invading Nazis and the invading Soviets.

Does a Russian invasion of Ukraine directly threaten the U.S.? This brewing conflict may feel distant and peripheral, but it’s part of a much larger “game” among the three major powers. The Cold War may be over, but we remain to a large degree the world’s policeman. We project our power around the globe because our national interests are truly far-flung. This will be interesting, to say the least.
Click to expand...
Thank you for the explanation of the "why". I truly had no idea why Russia was wanting to invade but this motive makes sense.
 
GWU PNS said:
We actually discussed this issue in one of our recent leadership labs. There are so many ways to view this and analyze it. What I stress to my folks is try hard not to simply espouse a western viewpoint without considering how Russia could see this. And it's not like I don't want to be patriotic to the cause, but if you are going to get after the "why is it happening", you have to get past the notion of "why don't they just do what we want?"

As mentioned earlier, Ukraine was an agricultural and industrial boon for Russia. And they have deep internal divisions. A very nationalistic Ukraine-centric west, with a much more Russia-friendly east.

When Boris Yeltsin signaled the advent of democracy for Russia, many in Europe and the US felt as though we had reached total victory. And so, over time, we started expanding NATO, to include Poland and Romania, which are not very far from Russia. And now, we have an eye toward bringing Ukraine into NATO. From a western perspective, we are such a peace-loving, freedom-evoking country, why should anyone suspect of us of ulterior motives?

If you are Russia, however, and you are watching the map, it would appear that our desire is to bring our defensive (and offensive) capabilities to the very doorstep of Russia. We don't seem very friendly to them. And when we sail destroyers into the Black Sea, which we technically are free to do, the weapons systems there can reach significantly into Russian territory.

So, Russia would like us to stop. And to be candid, some of their recent demands make me think they don't really want to reach a peaceful solution, at least not in the near term. From where I sit now, as a country, we can't agree on what color the sky is on any given day. So, it seems to be a fool's errand to assume that the EU or NATO would really be chomping at the bit to escalate this situation. And without any political malice intended here, whenever a domestic situation seems to be flagging, our government starts looking internationally at some cause that could be unifying. (Insert lawyerly language here that states I am not representing any government position, or that of any university, yada yada yada.)

A pretty decent article from the Council on Foreign Relations is here shortly after the invasion of the Crimean Peninsula. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/uk...YFrhkMunVmgp1pxXpP4Poe_U7l65pquRoCJZUQAvD_BwE
Click to expand...
Another great explanation of the "why". Thank you.
 
All that said, it is a mistake to regard the situation as far remote from the US and US Interests. Through
my lens as a former NATO Staff Officer, our position under the concept of collective defense of Europe
is to treat our allies as if they are ourselves and while the Russia/Ukraine dispute is not local to us, it is
local to our NATO brethren (and sistren). I recognize that Ukraine joining NATO might be a red flag to
Russia but so is a further Russian grab of Ukraine's territory to the West.
 
DH and I were in St. Petersburg about 5 years ago. Our tour guide was a middle-aged woman who loved Putin. She said he was “bringing Russia back” and she didn’t understand why former Soviet bloc countries wanted to leave. She thought the U.S. should mind its own business and the West should stay out of it all. Freedom of the press is clearly not a priority there.
 
Not at all like Mexico or Canada aligning with China.
One of the things the Putin apologists leave out is the Russian history of brutalizing Ukraine. Stalin’s
policies in the early 1930s killed almost 4 million Ukrainians.
The Russians may view Ukraine as “the Midwest”, but Ukrainians have never wanted anything to do with their abusive neighbor.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Holodomor - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org

Of course Soviet Union apologists such as The New York Times tried to downplay these famines, much as many now try to down play the threat to Ukraine.
Also, we made a promise to Ukraine after the Soviet Union fell that in exchange for them giving up their nuclear weapons we would guarantee their sovereignty.
en.m.wikipedia.org

Budapest Memorandum - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
But I guess it was a pinky promise.
And much like another despot in the late 1930’s, this will not end with the Sudetenland…. Sorry… Ukraine. The Baltic nations will be next.
I think the press conference will go down in history along side Dean Acheson’s Press Club Speech.
 
Last edited:
Capt MJ said:
DH and I were in St. Petersburg about 5 years ago. Our tour guide was a middle-aged woman who loved Putin. She said he was “bringing Russia back” and she didn’t understand why former Soviet bloc countries wanted to leave. She thought the U.S. should mind its own business and the West should stay out of it all. Freedom of the press is clearly not a priority there.
Click to expand...
Was she drinking Stolichnaya out of a brown bag? :D
 
OldRetSWO said:
All that said, it is a mistake to regard the situation as far remote from the US and US Interests. Through
my lens as a former NATO Staff Officer, our position under the concept of collective defense of Europe
is to treat our allies as if they are ourselves and while the Russia/Ukraine dispute is not local to us, it is
local to our NATO brethren (and sistren). I recognize that Ukraine joining NATO might be a red flag to
Russia but so is a further Russian grab of Ukraine's territory to the West.
Click to expand...
If this is true, and I don’t doubt it, I wonder about our southern border.

I also wonder when we can get to the bottom of the ukraine corruption involving US.

At the same time, I wonder what the impact of the russian hoaxes is on our interests.
 
A1Janitor said:
If this is true, and I don’t doubt it, I wonder about our southern border.
Click to expand...
I'm not seeing what might not be true. It is a fact that we are in the NATO alliance and the
duties as an alliance member with regard to collective defense are spelled out in the NATO Charter.
The proximity of Ukraine to our NATO partners is also a fact. The concept of Ukraine joining has
been discussed publicly and Russia's dislike of it is well known.
 
I was a political science major in college and spent a year studying in England (1980-81). The professor at the University stated at the time that Russia was the only country surrounded by hostile communist nations.:)
 
OldRetSWO said:
I'm not seeing what might not be true. It is a fact that we are in the NATO alliance and the
duties as an alliance member with regard to collective defense are spelled out in the NATO Charter.
The proximity of Ukraine to our NATO partners is also a fact. The concept of Ukraine joining has
been discussed publicly and Russia's dislike of it is well known.
Click to expand...
If it was true (as I accepted), I don’t understand President Biden’s comments which seem contradictory.

Or why our southern border is less important.

How does Germany and its relationship with Russia change NATOs position? The German chancellor rejected Biden’s request for a discussion on Ukraine.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top