Sequestration and ROTC: Down to the Wire

I had the poor luck to enter active duty under the Carter administration. Pilots were not getting enough hours to stay current. Training was essentially stopped. It was a terrible time for the military and our readiness suffered.

I had the good fortune to stay in long enough to see the Reagan years. 180 degree turnaround in every aspect of military life. Money was spent on upgrading, training, pay raises, etc. In my opinion, the U.S. military became a world leader once again.

My point is that it is sad to see this cycle starting to repeat. Unfortunately the pendulum always swings too far one way and then has to swing far the other way to balance things over the course of time. Ideally, we would manage through these times with less drastic variation but I fear that history will repeat itself here.

This should probably be on the Military News discussion board. However, it hits on discussions which I have had with both DS's, AROTC MS II and NROTC scholarship recipient.

Grunt, you have hit the nail on the head. I think we are close to the same age and observed much of the same progression of politics and public sentiment. The parallels to the mid to late 70's are striking: winding down a war effort with an inconclusive result, longterm bad economy, deeply divided politics.

To me the most striking parallel is that the US public, although more solidly behind the troops than post Vietnam, is tired of war. Nobody wants to talk about it. It wasn't even discussed during the last presidential campaign. (And we know that Presidential candidates only discuss what their pollsters tell voters want to hear about). It was barely touched on during Chuck Hagel's confirmation hearings.

Witness the recent revelations about targeting of US citizens suspected of being active members of terrorist groups. Zero discussion. All hell broke loose 5 years ago over "advanced interrogation techniques" on non-US citizens. Now nothing.

Bottomline, the average person on the street is more concerned about the price of gasoline or the eligibility age for Social Security and Medicare than the number of US naval carrier groups.

Grunt, I remember seeing (and smelling) US soldiers smoking pot on a train in West Germany in 1976 (Ford Presidency), showing no regard for the train conductor punching their tickets. I don't know if that was rock bottom, but it took many years for the US public and politicians to get their heads screwed on straight. I am afraid we haven't hit rock bottom.
 
A lot of this is very hard to fathom, especially in the flying world as it was stated for both the Navy and the Army.

They have to do specific types of sorties to maintain their MQ status. If they cut and the Army is correct regarding creating pilot shortage than what if G forbid another Kuwait invasion or 9 11 occurs? We won't be able to react as fast as we did back than, because now they will have to spin up training.

Plus, if they start cannibalizing equipment it will not be ready either.

I would think cadets in ROTC can expect summer training that is not considered essential to commission will also go by the wayside. I would think AFROTC will keep SFT because of their system, but than again, they might totally change it and make it more like ADAF promotion boards...either you are promoted to a POC or you are cut.

That would not be a surprise either, because they could push back to after commissioning, and this way it would give them a couple of yrs to defer the costs. Let's be honest sending 2K cadets to SFT for @30 days at 35 bucks a day, and that does not include the transportation costs to and from, or the food, laundry, etc. I would bet from start to finish it is about 2 grand per cadet.

It will be interesting to see what happens with SFT because the board is meeting now, and the list will drop around the same time as the sword for sequestration drops.

This is what I am worried about. My packet is getting sent up to the EA board here in two weeks and I am starting to get really nervous reading about all of these cuts. Last year the numbers were really good for EA slots, but the year before was ugly. It is hard to accept the fact that I might be on the chopping block. I had two nominations to USAFA C/O 2015 and that year the class size got cut, so surely I can't get creamed twice.

Does anyone think this will affect the 2013 EA Board? Does anyone know anything about how this all can affect AFROTC selections?
 
Regarding last yrs SFT numbers, you have to see it for everything that was released, not just the 93% stat.

1. They only offered 100 more slots than the yr before, so the question is how did they go from 55% to 93% with only 100 more slots
~~~ Either there were overall a lot less 200s from the yrs before or dets did not send everyone to the board.
~~~ DS went in 10, which had a 55% selection rate, but in 09, it was only in the mid 60s. So it was for 3 yrs that the number was between 50-65% range. I would consider 12 was a fluke or CoCs went to cadets in Dec and said you will be in the bottom 25-50%, and cadets dis-enrolled voluntarily knowing their chances were slim to none, hence a smaller pool size.
~~~ It might be the same this yr too.

2. Even with that information, what didn't change was the cgpa avg. It still has remained at the 3.0-3.4 marker depending on if the cadet is tech or non-tech.

AF has released their proposed cuts, I did not see anything that included AFROTC, the only maybe was this:
Canceling non-mission critical TDYs (such as SAVs, Inspections, Conferences, Training Seminars)
Considering reducing PME and mission readiness training TDYs; will drive loss of certification & promotion cycles

However, that is for ADAF, but since SFT is at Maxwell along with PMEs, it also could be impacted too.

I wouldn't worry, and just keep proving yourself as if it is a GO.

I would still be cognizant of sequestration, especially if you want rated, maintenance or communications.
In total, sequestration would cut about 203,000 flying hours, and that means it would take six months to repair the damage to readiness levels, the presentation says. Civilians could be furloughed for 22 days, translating into a roughly 20 percent loss in bi-weekly pay for each furloughed civilian.

Sequestration would affect more than 30 weapons systems, postpone 146 depot inductions and cause 85 engines to be pulled from service. The cuts would also lead to a 75 percent reduction in the sustainment of the Defense Satellite Communications System, and that would hurt military communications worldwide.

Certain radar sites for missile warning and space surveillance would see operations reduced from 24 to 8 hours per day Further, the Air Force could not participate with certain missions outside of Afghanistan, such as the continuous bomber presence in the Pacific.

The reason I would keep my eye on this is because AFROTC is different than other ROTCs, rated boards for you will release results 1 yr from now, only a few months into FY14, and 9 months after sequestration will start.

Branches are big, think of them like a carrier, they can't do a 180 degree turn on a dime, it takes time.

Will your AF look different than the2011's when they commissioned? Yes, but guess what? Every officer says that. An O4 will say that to an O3, and an O3 will say that to an O1/O2. Things change all of the time with every yr group/rank. Little things go away or change. However from the big picture you all will say the same thing...it is our AF!

Look at even AFROTC scholarship acceptances or the DoDMERB timeline from when you were in HS. Ten will get you twenty you did the exam earlier than after you got the scholarship because back than if a candidate was considered competitive they didn't wait, and now they wait to save money. Back then you had 30 days to accept, now you have until May. Back than the yr before you for the class of 14 ISSP and OTS was cancelled. It is like a pendulum, it keeps swinging from one extreme to another, very rarely is it in the middle.

It changes over and over again, trying to predict the future in the AF is like trying to read tea leaves. Instead of trying to read the leaves, enjoy the tea!
 
Things are about to get rough...do ya'll think they'll be another major officer-cut like what happened in the 90s? (I forgot what it was specifically called...just that a lotta young LT's and captains got handed pink slips)
 
It was called RIF (Reduction In Forces). I don't see a RIF coming, but who knows, in 1990 when they were doing Desert shield nobody saw the RIF 18 months later.
 
Looks like Sequestration is going to happen! With March 1st only a few days off now, I guess we will know soon how it will affect our cadets and the ROTC's?
 
AF AETC announced this last week:
All areas within AETC could be impacted by sequestration. There will be substantial cuts to funding for national advertising for recruiting and commissioning programs such as ROTC. Professional Military Education(PME) and Readiness training quotas will be reduced

The two things that nationally AFROTC cadets attend over the summer are:
1. SFT

This is where 2200 cadets attend for a month training at Maxwell AFB. They are paid per diem, and travel expenses. If you place all the costs together, food, lodging, travel and per diem for 28 days, it will be a couple of MN.

Assume 30 bucks a day X 28 =@850. Add in air fare of @500 per cadet, and their per diem, you have @1200 more. So let's say 2K per cadet or if my math is correct about 4.5 Million.

This is held at the same base that they have PME which AETC has announced will be reduced.

2. Flight physical for C300s.

This is a 3 day physical where they fly them out to Wright Pat. The problem with doing this is by delaying it to FY 14 budget, it will clog up the system in many ways.

~~~ If a cadet is DQ'd and needs a waiver, than it will be that much longer before they know if the waiver is approved. This impacts the alternates on the list because if the cadet is not waived than the alt will find out later, and they still need to get their physical.

~~~ It impacts the cadet from a non-rated board position, because before when it was done in the summer many of the cadets that got DQ non-waiver knew by Aug., thus they submitted their wish list for non-rated along with all of the other C400s. Now there will be a lot of game changing later on.

I believe kinnem said on another thread the Navy will not be doing summer cruises for the mids even at USNA. If that is true, I could see AFROTC hitting at least 1 of these areas. Maybe not cancelling SFT, but reducing numbers. AFA cadets might also their ops tour over the summer cancelled...let's be honest if they are going to cut 203K flight hrs in the op world there will be less for cadets to see.
 
All areas within AETC could be impacted by sequestration. There will be substantial cuts to funding for national advertising for recruiting and commissioning programs such as ROTC. Professional Military Education(PME) and Readiness training quotas will be reduced
Perhaps it's just me, but I interpret this statement to mean that the advertisement budget for recruiting and commissioning programs such as ROTC will be cut. Not necessarily the programs themselves.

As far as I can determine, Professional Military Education(PME) and Readiness training are not ROTC related.
http://www.dsca.osd.mil/home/professional_military_education.htm
 
This issue is because they have to cut an entire yr budget, when they are 1/2 way through the yr. Next yr. it will be different but right now...assume you were handed 96K last Sept. 8K a month. You spent 48K, and now they say oops you now the total is 75K.

You are left with 28K for 6 months instead of the 48K.

Not an easy feat, when you start adding up the must bills...mtgs, car, insurance, electricity, gas, etc. All you have is food and disposable income.

Look at what has been said by the AF
Advanced pilot and instructor training courses will be curtailed beginning April 1 in order to protect initial flying training, which is expected to stand down in late August or early September. If Congress fails to act and the automatic cuts are enacted, AETC will start implementing actions as soon as March 1.

In total, sequestration would cut about 203,000 flying hours, and that means it would take six months to repair the damage to readiness levels, the presentation says. Civilians could be furloughed for 22 days, translating into a roughly 20 percent loss in bi-weekly pay for each furloughed civilian.

Sequestration would affect more than 30 weapons systems, postpone 146 depot inductions and cause 85 engines to be pulled from service. The cuts would also lead to a 75 percent reduction in the sustainment of the Defense Satellite Communications System, and that would hurt military communications worldwide.

Certain radar sites for missile warning and space surveillance would see operations reduced from 24 to 8 hours per day Further, the Air Force could not participate with certain missions outside of Afghanistan, such as the continuous bomber presence in the Pacific.

Do you actually think with these type of ADAF cuts AFROTC SFT will be safe?

Yes, it can be if SFT is NAF (non-appropriated funding), but still this is what the AF is saying.

Agagles,

I took it differently regarding that quote.
There will be substantial cuts to funding for national advertising for recruiting AND commissioning programs such as ROTC

The amount of advertising I have ever seen for ROTC is close to zilch. Maybe 10 a yr on TV and that is for AF recruiting, not ROTC. Pretty hard to do substantial cuts if you don't spend any money in the 1st place...unless we are playing the political game. Substantial cuts of nothing equals nothing in the budget, but is a great sound bite for those that listen!
 
Glad I checked the boards today. Thanks for the update, Pima and others. Still playing the waiting game with Washington.
 
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