Service Assignment Odds

[NavyHoops]

Any idea why they are downsizing?

 

[navyfamilyof4]

Sounds like the NUPOC program. Great program if someone is interested in the Navy and didn’t pursue ROTC. Probably more than anything the money and guaranteed job are the selling points to these students.

what is NUPOC? the Sub option is actually my DS first choice

 

[Capt MJ]

what is NUPOC? the Sub option is actually my DS first choice

https://www.navy.com/what-to-expect/education-opportunities/college-options-and-scholarships

Very competitive application process. Go to college. Major in certain things. Scholarship + stipend. Go to Officer Candidate School (OCS) after graduation to get commission. Do not look left or right, proceed to nuclear propulsion training pipeline side by side with USNA and NROTC grads. NUPOC has been around a long time. There were wicked smart NUPOCS in my OCS class in the 20th c.

 

[THParent]

 

[BDHuff09]

You're not going to get nuke with a 2.7. There's enough competition for people who want it and the people they're going to sub draft have much higher grades. You're likely to get pilot, HOWEVER there's a pretty serious downsizing happening in CNATRA right now, so the slots available for your class may be reduced. FOs seem to always be behind in numbers, so I'd bet money on you at least getting that. Padding your preferences with the nuke options as 3 and 4 isn't going to preclude them from giving you your 5th choice though.

You're probably right, Nuc is probably out of the question at this point for a 2.7. It's just that witnessing the bloodbath that was '17 service assignment has show that relatively few people are truly safe from subs if they really need bodies. There are definitely people in Charleston right now who had south of 3.0 QPRs who are not there by choice.

Any idea why they are downsizing?

I'm just an ensign, so I definitely don't have all the facts, but the impression I had was that it's not so much that Naval Aviation is downsizing, but that there are too many students in the training pipeline right now, and that the time to train is way too long for pilots. I think they are trying to assess fewer pilots and raise attrition to lessen the back up in the pipeline.

 

[pilot2b]

Subs is usually the one that has more open spots than people who want them. Last year (class of '18) was an exception and there was no sub draft.
For '18, there was actually a SWO draft, but the people sent SWO (who didn't pick it first) mostly came from those who picked SWO NUKE as first choice.

Class of '17 was more typical.
86% got first choice
9% got second choice
2% got third
>1 forth
>1 fifth
>1 sixth

Also for '17, USMC came up 40 people short, but USMC does not draft those who do not pick Marines 1st choice.

Also, for '17, there were 74 mids who went to SARB (service assignment review board). If you get sent to the board, you are not likely getting your first choice.
Of those 74, 40 got Subs, 19 got SWO Nuke
Of the 40 that got Subs, they came from 8 SWO, 14 Pilot, 15 USMC, 2 NFO, 1 CW
Of the 19 that got SWO Nuke, they came from 8 SWO, 7 Pilot, 4 USMC

For OP - the metrics used to rank aviation candidates are:
OOM - 50%
Aviation Points - 35%
ATSB score - 15%
It is very possible that you could be ranked very high on the list, based on these metrics, but then be found "qualified" for Subs or SWO Nuke and be sent to SARB.

*Aviation points are awarded for aviation related activities and qualifications, ie. private pilot license, certified instructor, powered flight summer training, etc. etc.

This is wrong regarding USMC for '17. Class of '17, like most classes, had to cut people who wanted to go Marines. '18 had the (rare) issue of too few people wanting to go Marine Corps.

As an aside, I would be skeptical of fully trusting the numbers USNA publishes of who gets their first choice. They purposely convolute the issue in several ways. They always talk in terms of who got their first or second choice, never just their first choice. Also, the way I (and most people in my class) understood it, was a SARB for subs ends up changing that person's top choice to subs. It's a dirty trick designed to make the numbers seem better than they actually are. The truth, most people get what they want. I did, and I'm thankful. But be cautious in fully trusting the numbers published that have been manipulated on the front end.

 

[pleber16]

I'm just an ensign, so I definitely don't have all the facts, but the impression I had was that it's not so much that Naval Aviation is downsizing, but that there are too many students in the training pipeline right now, and that the time to train is way too long for pilots. I think they are trying to assess fewer pilots and raise attrition to lessen the back up in the pipeline.

Basically, yes. The fleet is short on pilots, but the pipeline from IFS to wings is very backed up. The OBOGS issue in the T-45 affected more than just the jet pipeline, because everyone heading to Kingsville or Meridian had to stay current. That meant SNAs for E2/C2 were taking flight hours in the T44 and jet kids were taking T6 hours from the primary squadrons, so everything slowed down.

 

[A6E Dad]

Also for '17, USMC came up 40 people short, but USMC does not draft those who do not pick Marines 1st choice.

.

This is wrong regarding USMC for '17. Class of '17, like most classes, had to cut people who wanted to go Marines. '18 had the (rare) issue of too few people wanting to go Marine Corps.

As an aside, I would be skeptical of fully trusting the numbers USNA publishes of who gets their first choice. They purposely convolute the issue in several ways. They always talk in terms of who got their first or second choice, never just their first choice. Also, the way I (and most people in my class) understood it, was a SARB for subs ends up changing that person's top choice to subs. It's a dirty trick designed to make the numbers seem better than they actually are. The truth, most people get what they want. I did, and I'm thankful. But be cautious in fully trusting the numbers published that have been manipulated on the front end.

You are correct. I had data from '17 and '18 and mixed it up. In '18, the CNO requirement was 269 for USMC, but there were only 228 who picked it as first choice.

In a briefing done by Officer Accessions, they showed the breakdown by selection for '18, but because it was such an unusual year (meaning almost everyone got first choice) they used '17 as more typical (ie. sub draft etc) to show percentages.

I agree that the numbers that are published can be misleading, they tend to show "% that got first OR 2nd choice".

For class of 2017, 86% got first choice, and 9% got second choice. Per your point about SARB, it's not clear if those people drafted are included in the 86%.

It looks like there were 59 who were drafted into either Subs or SWO Nuke that year. If you remove that number from the 86% who got first choice, it goes down to about 81%.

In that case, it's still 90% getting first or second choice, with the very large majority getting first, but not quite as positive as published.

 

[BDHuff09]

You are correct. I had data from '17 and '18 and mixed it up. In '18, the CNO requirement was 269 for USMC, but there were only 228 who picked it as first choice.

In a briefing done by Officer Accessions, they showed the breakdown by selection for '18, but because it was such an unusual year (meaning almost everyone got first choice) they used '17 as more typical (ie. sub draft etc) to show percentages.

I agree that the numbers that are published can be misleading, they tend to show "% that got first OR 2nd choice".

For class of 2017, 86% got first choice, and 9% got second choice. Per your point about SARB, it's not clear if those people drafted are included in the 86%.

It looks like there were 59 who were drafted into either Subs or SWO Nuke that year. If you remove that number from the 86% who got first choice, it goes down to about 81%.

In that case, it's still 90% getting first or second choice, with the very large majority getting first, but not quite as positive as published.

It's also important for candidates, midshipman and parents to know that there are several other scenarios that occur somewhat often that are not captured by the figures release by the Academy on Service Assignment.

For one thing, many communities will have frank conversations before service selection with borderline candidates advising them to start moving in another direction. Like, "Hey, you've met every prerequisite for community X, but based on the applicant pool/recent history, I wouldn't expect you to be selected, so if I were you I would start considering plan Bs." Many mids (the smart ones at least) after hearing that, will put a different community #1 on their preference sheet. So midshipman Y might've always wanted to be a Marine but received a "meh" evaluation at leatherneck, and his Marine Mentor tells him his odds are low since the USMC has a lot of interest in his class, so Y puts SWO #1 instead. So yes, he got his first choice on paper, but it wasn't really his first choice.

Also, every year medical stuff comes up that prevent people from selecting certain communities. You might have 9/9/9 ASTB, be #1 in your class, and have a Private Pilots license, but at your pre commissioning physical the docs find out that you've got really low iron so bam! Naval Aviation is off the table for you. You put something else down and get it, so officially speaking you got your first choice, but the truth is you didn't really get your first choice.

Don't get me wrong, the scenarios above don't happen to most people, and it is pretty safe to say that MOST midshipman will get what they want at service selection. But you should definitely take that 90% figure with a grain of salt.

 

[Capt MJ]

It's also important for candidates, midshipman and parents to know that there are several other scenarios that occur somewhat often that are not captured by the figures release by the Academy on Service Assignment.

For one thing, many communities will have frank conversations before service selection with borderline candidates advising them to start moving in another direction. Like, "Hey, you've met every prerequisite for community X, but based on the applicant pool/recent history, I wouldn't expect you to be selected, so if I were you I would start considering plan Bs." Many mids (the smart ones at least) after hearing that, will put a different community #1 on their preference sheet. So midshipman Y might've always wanted to be a Marine but received a "meh" evaluation at leatherneck, and his Marine Mentor tells him his odds are low since the USMC has a lot of interest in his class, so Y puts SWO #1 instead. So yes, he got his first choice on paper, but it wasn't really his first choice.

Also, every year medical stuff comes up that prevent people from selecting certain communities. You might have 9/9/9 ASTB, be #1 in your class, and have a Private Pilots license, but at your pre commissioning physical the docs find out that you've got really low iron so bam! Naval Aviation is off the table for you. You put something else down and get it, so officially speaking you got your first choice, but the truth is you didn't really get your first choice.

Don't get me wrong, the scenarios above don't happen to most people, and it is pretty safe to say that MOST midshipman will get what they want at service selection. But you should definitely take that 90% figure with a grain of salt.

Very insightful and so true of the many variations that can occur. We had a sponsor son who was that guy with PPL, single digit standing in the class, aero major, great ASTB scores, all he ever wanted was naval aviation as a path to test pilot school and NASA astronaut program. Then - bam, exactly - pre-comm physical finds something he now has to to take a med for that is air DQ. He went subs.