State Competitiveness

[Packer]

It's not really useful to consider the "unversal" rate. IOW, all 3Qs with noms do not have the same likelihood of receiving an appointment b/c some folks are more qualified than others.

In that vein, it may be easier to obtain a nom from a less competitive state or district; however, it may be harder to obtain an appointment if you're not the principal nominee.

Trying to figure out your "odds" by looking at numbers may be entertaining, but I'm not sure its any real predictor as it applies to you personally.

Something also to add to what USNA posted.

The world of the Air Force academy appointments changed dramatically in the last year. In the class of 2009-2013, the academy went off of past data and offered 1600+ appointments, KNOWING that approximately 400 would turn it down. Well, in the last 3-4 years, the economy has made it where less people have been turning down appointments. As such, the academies have TOO MANY cadets. (By law, they are only suppose to have no more than 4400 at the academy total each year, and no more than 1000 being commissioned each year). Well, they've been exceeding that, no longer are being offered automatic waivers, and with DOD budget cuts have changed their methods.

This past year, instead of offering all the appointments up front and waiting for many to turn them down, they'd offer some.... wait for the turn downs.... offer some more..... wait for more turn downs..... etc... This way they could ensure that they didn't wind up with too many people accepting an appointment.

So, you can believe that looking at "Past" appointment numbers is meaningful in judging your chances, but I wouldn't use the past to judge the future. The academy is no longer using the past to make their appointment offers, so why would you use the past to judge your chances. Truth is; this coming year is going to be the lowest appointed class. There will be approximately 1050 appointments. For what it's worth, this year's graduating class of 2012, still has over 1100 students. (When I checked a couple months ago). That's why the rules are changing. People aren't dropping out and turning them down as much as they did in the past.

I definitely agree with you both. However, when new potential candidates and parents are beginning to research the process and the chances it is helpful to see that if one makes it to the 3Q level with a nom one has a reasonable chance rather than the ~10% acceptance rate that gets tossed around. Is the 52% really your chance? Not unless they are drawing names out of a hat and I sure hope that is not what they are doing. Without knowing your competition and the details of the selection process you will never know your actual chance but with the numbers like Lugi posted and the previous class profiles a person can look at themselves and at least develop somewhat of an idea of where they stand.

 

[Christcorp]

I definitely agree with you both. However, when new potential candidates and parents are beginning to research the process and the chances it is helpful to see that if one makes it to the 3Q level with a nom one has a reasonable chance rather than the ~10% acceptance rate that gets tossed around. Is the 52% really your chance? Not unless they are drawing names out of a hat and I sure hope that is not what they are doing. Without knowing your competition and the details of the selection process you will never know your actual chance but with the numbers like Lugi posted and the previous class profiles a person can look at themselves and at least develop somewhat of an idea of where they stand.

I understand what you're saying. And in the past, I would agree with you. But this isn't the past. This isn't the class of 2012, 2013, or 2014. They WILL NOT offer 1600 appointments. The way they will do it, is similar to last year. Put out the first 500-600 that covers the "mandatory" slots for nominator slates. They'll see who says yes and no, and they'll offer some more. They'll see who says yes and no from there, and they'll offer some more. So while it's true that to get the 1050 appointments they want, they'll offer probably 1200-1300 appointments, they aren't going to offer them up front and HOPE 300 turn it down. They're going to make sure that when they reach the 1050+/- magic number, that they aren't offering any more appointments and no one else is going to say yes.

That's why I think looking at the past "Offered Appointments" isn't as useful as it once was.

 

[cchung34]

In addition, we also have to take into account of the limitations each district is allowed to have appointees to USAFA. At least, I believe that each district is only allowed to have up to 5 cadets at USAFA at any given year. Therefore, assuming that the 3 cadets are already at USAFA currently, there are only 2 slots left for the DISTRICT.

That's pretty intense competition, especially if you have around 10 nominees for each academy. One out of the 10 (or possibly 2 out of the 10) will receive an appointment. And I'm guessing with the bad economy, most of the appointees will not turn them down yet there are still those who decline.

 

[falconfamily]

In addition, we also have to take into account of the limitations each district is allowed to have appointees to USAFA. At least, I believe that each district is only allowed to have up to 5 cadets at USAFA at any given year. Therefore, assuming that the 3 cadets are already at USAFA currently, there are only 2 slots left for the DISTRICT.

That's pretty intense competition, especially if you have around 10 nominees for each academy. One out of the 10 (or possibly 2 out of the 10) will receive an appointment. And I'm guessing with the bad economy, most of the appointees will not turn them down yet there are still those who decline.

All of this information is interesting, but in the end, unless you are a principal nominee, it will all depend on the candidates you are competing with in your district (or if it should come to it, how you match up against a national pool of candidates). No sense worrying too much about this, take it a step at a time, get your nomination, complete your application, do well in your CFA and the rest is out of your control. Don't forget, this is just a small part of a journey that will span a decade or more. I-Day, BCT, Doolie Year, Recognition, .....Graduation/Commissioning, becoming a professional officer in the US Military....as a parent of a 2015 Cadet, I can honestly tell you that it is a rollercoaster ride of emotions and this first part, while nerve wracking is a small fraction of what you can look forward to once appointed.

Good Luck Connie and Class of 2016, I wish you all the best of luck!

 

[Packer]

I understand what you're saying. And in the past, I would agree with you. But this isn't the past. This isn't the class of 2012, 2013, or 2014. They WILL NOT offer 1600 appointments. The way they will do it, is similar to last year. Put out the first 500-600 that covers the "mandatory" slots for nominator slates. They'll see who says yes and no, and they'll offer some more. They'll see who says yes and no from there, and they'll offer some more. So while it's true that to get the 1050 appointments they want, they'll offer probably 1200-1300 appointments, they aren't going to offer them up front and HOPE 300 turn it down. They're going to make sure that when they reach the 1050+/- magic number, that they aren't offering any more appointments and no one else is going to say yes.

That's why I think looking at the past "Offered Appointments" isn't as useful as it once was.

How they get to 1200-1300 appointments offered is irrelevant. It doesn't really matter if you get the first one of the last one tendered. If they make 1250 offers and there are 2500 3Q + nom candidates 50% get offers. The yield on those offers is 84% if they end up at 1050 for a class size. If they make the offers one at a time the statistics still say the same thing. The new more careful way of doing it just means they will hit the 1050 number and not go over on accepted offers.

 

[Christcorp]

In addition, we also have to take into account of the limitations each district is allowed to have appointees to USAFA. At least, I believe that each district is only allowed to have up to 5 cadets at USAFA at any given year. Therefore, assuming that the 3 cadets are already at USAFA currently, there are only 2 slots left for the DISTRICT.

That's pretty intense competition, especially if you have around 10 nominees for each academy. One out of the 10 (or possibly 2 out of the 10) will receive an appointment. And I'm guessing with the bad economy, most of the appointees will not turn them down yet there are still those who decline.

That's not completely true. Yes, a representative or senator can only have 5 cadets at the academy at one time, but that means "Charged" against them. I.e. Lets assume that each MOC has one opening. That's 535 appointees. The remaining 500-600 appointees could all have nominations from these same representatives or senators, but because they got appointments from the national pool, they DON'T COUNT against the MOC's limit of 5. In a real extreme for examples, let's say a representative from pickadistrict, California submits 10 names and only has 1 slot available. That one person (Whoever it is) receives an appointment. ALL 9 of the remaining nominees on their list COULD RECEIVE an appointment too. And NONE of those remaining 9 count towards the representative's limit of 5 at the academy.

As far as wanting to look at numbers to judge your chances or position, if it makes you feel better; go for it. There will be a few thousand that are qualified but didn't receive a nomination, and there will be those that receive a nomination and aren't completely qualified. And if you happen to be an applicant who is completely qualified and do have a nomination, you can say you have basically a 40/60 or 50/50 chance of receiving an appointment. (2500 qualified and noms and 1050-1100 appointed). But as pointed out, your odds are based solely on your competition. You can have 24/25 ACT scores; 3.3gpa, do decent on your CFA, and pass your DODMRB. You could come from a district where getting a nomination is easy because of little competition. But unless you're the Principal nominee (Which MOST MOC's don't do this method), then I would say that you probably DON'T have a 50/50 chance of receiving an appointment. Probably closer to a 10% chance.

On the other hand, if you have a 3.9, All IB/AP classes, 30+ACT, excellent CFA, passed the DODMRB, have all the leadership, EC, Sports, etc... that gave you a really good overall score; then I'd say you have closer to an 80-90% chance. But again, that depends on your competition. But like you said, it doesn't matter if you're the 1st or 1050th appointee. It also doesn't matter if you're the 1st or 1500th NON-Appointed person either.

Finally; realize that with the economy and the military draw downs, MOC's are being more and more selective with those they nominate. The same numbers that luigi provided show a STEADY CLIMB in "Qualified" candidates. Don't be surprised if the qualified number surpasses 3,000. In which case would mean you'd have an initial 1 in 3 chance of receiving an appointment. But then minus the initial 500-600 for MOC/Military slated appointments, and you figure there will be 500 slots out of the remaining 2400; Which now means a 1 in 5 (20%) chance. My point stands. Using the past figures, stats, percentages, etc... as a means of judging your "Chances" is very misleading. Yes, the odds are still better than the initial number of 12,000+ applicants, or the 5000+ nominees, but the numbers of applicants, qualified, and appointments given is not constant; and the method of selecting appointments and number is also changing.

 

[usna1985]

As I tell my USNA candidates, completing your application greatly increases your "odds" of receiving an appointment. I apologize that I can't speak for USAFA, but for USNA, of the 19,000+ "applications," somewhat less than 6,000 typically complete the process (application, CFA, medical).

Of those, maybe 2500-3000, more or less, would be triple qualified and receive a nom.

HISTORICALLY, somewhere around 1500-1600 would be offered appointments, meaning the odds weren't all that bad. As others have pointed out, the number of offers has decreased.

For the newbies out there, if you finish the application process, the overall odds for applicants across the board are much better than the 10% or so the SAs tout (being honest here). However, if you're trying to gauge what YOUR personal chances are based on where you live, etc., it's really a futile effort.