U.S. aircraft carrier's arrival off Korean peninsula also sends a message to China.

Twoop, Steve.

Been there, done that (prepped for the Korean O-Plan). NOT a pretty situation, and the devastation, to both sides, would be a rude reminder to the world just how horrifying war on this scale could be.

Two things have kept the peace over the past few decades: N Korea's threat to Seoul (which has a population closer to 24 million if you count the outer suburbs, which are also in N Korean artillery range), and the US presence on the peninsula, which are unfortunately there to suffer mass casualties to ensure America would respond if N. Korea attacks (in fact, our troop reduction and movement away from the DMZ a few years back made S. Korea VERY nervous on our level of commitment to defending them).

These two factors haven't changed (much), and have been an effective deterrent towards preventing full scale conflict on the peninsula. What also hasn't changed is Pyongyang's use of sabre-rattling to force the South (and US) to give them concessions. In this case, I think they are looking for the multi-lateral talks to resume (as Mongo pointed out), and are also probably looking for more food and technology shipments from the South.

It's worked before (multiple times), so why should N. Korea NOT think it would work again?

And to correct an earlier point from Hornet, while it is correct that the majority of the troops there are manning remote tours (one year tour, no dependents), I think about 1/4 of them are manning two year tours, with dependents on the peninsula with them, particularly at Osan AB. So, when would I start getting nervous? When I see us execute the plans for evacuating those dependents out of harm's way (massive airlift out of Korea, and remember those cargo birds would also be bringing reinforcements and supplies INTO Korea on the trips into country at the same time).

For now, my impression is our government is making a very visible statement to Pyongyang: "we are no longer just going to roll over and give you whatever you want every time you start acting up. THIS time, we'll ratchet up the rhetoric as well." Risky maneuver, hope it works out (and I expect it will).



Mongo?
 
South Korean president signals hardened military stance toward North

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/28/AR2010112804537.html?hpid=topnews

SEOUL - South Korea will abandon its long-standing policy of not responding militarily to the North's hostile acts, President Lee Myung-bak said,....

..."Lee said South Korea tolerated the provocations "in the belief that one day North Korea will change, and because of our hope for peace on the Korean Peninsula." He said South Korea has continued to engage in talks with Pyongyang and has given humanitarian assistance to the economically troubled country, but North Korea continued its pursuit of nuclear weapons and continued its attacks.

Now, Lee said, "South Koreans realize that tolerance and generosity bring more provocation." He said that South Korea would strengthen its military capability and would "make North Korea pay the due price by all means for its provocation from now on."

Baek Seung-joo, a researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analysis, called the speech "a turning point for South Korean government policy dealing with North Korea...With the nation's support, Lee will make sure any further provocation is met with military action...."

He really has no other choice. At some point a sovereign country can't tolerate continued provocation without responding forcefully in kind. The North Koreans are nuts and since 1953 reallyhave never faced any kind of consequences for their actions. This is how they extort money and attention from the rest of the world. Clinton fed this monster in a huge way in the mid 90s with his agreement on Nuke development- but they have been successful with this approach for so long that it appears that they have little or no concept of any line that will produce consequences to them. However, shelling a civilian village and killing civilians may have been that line that the SK Government discovered it's own population will not tolerate crossing?
One does wonder when the Chinese will have had enough of this and aggressively clamp down on them? While I have no doubt that China has an interest in keeping the region slightly destabilized as a way of controlling potential competitors , but they have no more interest than anyone else in seeing things bubble completely over.
 
I think the world has only two solutions left

1. Strike North Korea first and reunite the peninsula with a military solution

2. Force China and South Korea to stop sending aid to North Korea


Honestly, I can't think of any other way that doesn't sound too extreme to most people. We've tried nearly everything, and obviously, dealing with North Korea is like dealing with a 5 year old. Yes, Seoul could be devastated, yes, a nuclear warhead might be detonated over the peninsula. But can't the US simply destroy all of North Korea's entrenched artillery and potential nuclear launch sites with laser guided/precision missiles? I know we have the technology. I am under the impression that our satellites can see everything from up there. Doing so would eliminate those two biggest threats and a sweep to the Yalu river would probably take less than a month, maybe even within weeks or days.

Or just wait them out? Force China and South Korea to cease propping their government up and wait for the North Korean government to collapse inwardly. It would probably turn out to be incredibly chaotic but it would work. Exploiting this would bring the inevitable collapse of the regime. We would have to rush in fast before China takes advantage of the situation.

This is assuming that China will not intervene. China's interests are in occupying the peninsula and I wouldn't be surprised if they invaded North Korea with the premise of restoring "order" to any political instability with the ultimate goal of annexing the territory. I would say that among the six parties, China is probably the most uncooperative and shameless member. They have routinely shielded North Korea from accusations and complaints from other nations and continue to keep them barely alive. The explanation that they are doing so to prevent a refugee crisis is BS. Obviously, keeping the peninsula divided is in their interests, not reunited under a US-backed republic.

Besides, if we did succeed, America could pull out of Korea and save the trouble of keeping them there.

Its time to stop North Korea from trolling the world and trolling America and its allies. Seriously, how much longer is this kind of crap going to go on for? I honestly don't know any reason why we couldn't end it this very second...
 
I honestly don't know any reason why we couldn't end it this very second...

Maybe the fact that the loss of life on both sides would be tremendous. Plans for a war with North Korea from the 90's estimated US casualties to be around 40,000 before it was over. And in the 100's of thousands for the south. And I believe the estimates would be even worse now. I think the only way war is going to happen is if the North invades the South, only because then we'd be forced to act.
 
Maybe the fact that the loss of life on both sides would be tremendous. Plans for a war with North Korea from the 90's estimated US casualties to be around 40,000 before it was over. And in the 100's of thousands for the south. And I believe the estimates would be even worse now. I think the only way war is going to happen is if the North invades the South, only because then we'd be forced to act.

I would say that the sinking of the Korean corvette several months ago and now the artillery barrage are more than enough to be seen as acts of war. I dont know about a full-blown invasion but a far stronger response should have been made. The South Korean return artillery fire was too weak
 
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