US strikes Iranian Nuclear Sites

Great analysis from Scott Jennings on CNN - "Missiles. Nuclear ambitions, Terrorism. It stops now because TRUMP had the guts to do it."

"Trump isn't starting a war - he's ending a regime at war with the US & Western Civilization for 47 years. May God rest the souls of the Americans who gave their lives in this noble cause!"
 
Trump’s aim in this current conflict is not regime change. Perhaps that’s his goal in the long run, but this specific event will not initiate it. You cannot have regime change without some opposing force within Iran (troops on the ground) or a proxy initiating said revolt. Could we destroy Iran’s navy with these strikes? Probably. Could we change the regime in charge? Not likely. Keep in mind Iran is a relatively legitimate nation with a chain of succession. There is a greater chance the internal security forces takes charge within Iran.

I see the Trump admin using a recurring pattern of placing leaders under considerable pressure to then be “pliable” to the demands of the US. After’s Maduro’s capture, the vice president of Venezuela took charge; there was no massive change in government. The Venezuelan Gov took it as just another contingency where the president was unable to serve and thus appointed the next successor. However, this VP is now under considerable pressure to give in to the demands of the US. “We can kidnap your president within 10 hours, what do you think we could do if we TRIED?” Thus the Trump admin keeps the legitimacy of the government of Venezuela yet tailors it to their need a forces them to give into our terms.
This was a tactic used by Napoleon in establishing satellite states with a semblance of legitimacy by keeping the rulers in place but making them pliable enough to give into his demands.
I think Trump envisions a slightly drawn out conflict with Iran imo. There’s no way these strikes alone cause a chain of events to initiate regime change; and even if they did there would be catastrophic bloodshed in regional conflicts between still loyal IF’s and the citizens. (There’s factions within citizens as well btw, some still support the Islamic revolution.)
 
One final comment. Everyone on this thread is looking at this conflict through a keyhole. There are much larger strategic implications at play.

Every JASSM, every LRASM, every SM-3/6, every Tomahawk, depletes a finite reserve. A reserve that takes a long time to replenish. Every capability utilized burns potential future application. These concerns have been publicly echoed by multiple echelons of leadership.

If you think Iran was a strategic risk to the United States, that is not echoed by the entirety of the DIA. China is the existential threat, and we must posture accordingly. We just lost 3x F-15Es. Those are three JASSM shooters and 3 APG-82s we no longer have. When (not if) me and my friends cross the straight, we need every single high end weapon and capability we have. There is a reason the majority of fellow 11Fs I know (including patches) are not in favor of this conflict.

During my career I have seen us fall behind technologically and have to play catch up with China due to CENTCOM conflicts. We no longer have decades to play with. Time is not on our side. We as a country have to start acting like it.

Cheers.
 
A1Janitor said:
I thought taking control of Venezuela, suffocating Cuba, and wiping out the Iranian terrorists would weaken China.

I have more faith in western innovation than I do China’s.
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Fine, one last comment.

1. If you think those move the needle on China's timeline on Taiwan, you are wrong.
2. You do not understand the threat. I see the threat briefs. I instruct in my F-35 every day against Chinese systems. I study their capabilities and tactics. This is my life, and has been for the past 11 years. When I tell you that we have lost the advantage, and are on equal "innovation" /technological footing with China, I highly advise you leave partisanship at the door and listen.

Now I am actually done.
 
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flieger83 said:
Okay, to lighten up the topic...

NEWS JUST IN FROM ESPN...
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Funny story, my last CO in the Marines was in the final scene at El Toro (along with several other extras in the crowd) Col. Jim Ritchie. He is below not wearing sunglasses. A great leader…flew CH-46’s in Vietnam in 68 and 72. If you are a military history aficionado, there are several oral histories where he was interviewed about the fall of Saigon, which he also participated in flying off of the USS Hancock. If you were familiar with the BRAC debacle with El Toro and Tustin back in the late 90’s you may recognize him, as he was in charge of the transition and spent a lot of time in front of the media about the changes.

IMG_0858.jpeg
 
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a400831 said:
Fine, one last comment.

1. If you think those move the needle on China's timeline on Taiwan, you are wrong.
2. You do not understand the threat. I see the threat briefs. I instruct in my F-35 every day against Chinese systems. I study their capabilities and tactics. This is my life, and has been for the past 11 years. When I tell you that we have lost the advantage, and are on equal "innovation" /technological footing with China, I highly advise you leave partisanship at the door and listen.

Now I am actually done.
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How did those systems work in Venezuela and Iran?

Remove the Chinese spies in and out of our universities. China steals everything.
 
USMC Crayons said:
We have been in a state of war with Iran or its proxies for the last 47 years, I wouldn’t call anything occurring with Iran “new”, it’s just a perpetual game of kicking the can down the road. If we would have taken care of business after the bombing in 1983, we likely we not be in the situation we are today. Iran has done nothing but destabilize the region since 1979.
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^ This...I came to this thread to say exactly this. I don't think anyone that has seen war really wants war, but sometimes its necessary. We've been engaged in a low intensity conflict (and in a few cases, we were on the receiving end of some pretty egregious actions) without responding) for years, and whether right or wrong, there appears to be a credible threat that IRAN is close to having nukes and the ability to deliver them. One of the primary purposes of our federal government is to provide for the common defense of the country, and it appears that talking wasn't going to solve the problem. Failure to act in a situation like this would be unconscionable.

I do fear for the future.... like the opening strikes of Desert Storm back in the 1991, I wonder how this will end. What is our end game ? We've proven that are military is pretty good at blowing stuff up and winning the war, but we haven't won the peace since 1945. My recommendation would be to get a coalition of Arab states to participate and lead Iran back into the community of nations.


Boeingaircraft767 said:
I guarantee that if we killed Bin Laden today the left would protest it.
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If we hadn't acted and suffered a nuclear strike or even another 9-11 level attack, there would have been hell to pay. It's easy being the party out of power, they don't have any responsibility and can sit back and attack the President. Frankly, that would happen regardless of what side of the aisle the President sits.

I did see a comment online that President Trump attacked Kamela Harris during the last campaign, claiming that she would get us in a war with Iran, That may be true, but the difference is that with President Trump, the war started at a time and place of our choosing, with a strong ally by our side. If this had been Kamela Harris (or Joe Biden), it would have started with us taking the first hit which would have been ugly, and the response would likely have been half assed. Whether you like or dislike President Trump, he doesn't do things half way,.
 
Maybe somebody with knowledge of this subject might answer a question for me. (Sorry if it was addressed earlier...I've been locked out for a couple of days.)

I read in the media that Qatar shot down two Iranian fighter aircraft. How did these get off the ground in Iran and penetrate across the Gulf? I did not know that Iran had much of an air force left, if any! Seems like a suicide mission to me.
 
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