USAFA Applications down 27.6%?

[DomerDad]

I was shocked to see such a huge drop-off in applicants for the USAFA 2026 class. This week USAFA released the Demographic Profile for the Class of 2026 and they reported only 8,393 applicants. That compares to 11,599 last year. Admission rates were impacted despite 53 fewer offers of admission. The class of 2025 admission rate was 12.3% (1,428/15,599) vs a 2026 admission rate of 16.4% (1,375/8393).

The Naval Academy has not yet reported its numbers, but West Point is only showing a 10% drop. West Point's class of 2025 admissions rate was 8.7% (1,214/13,984). Their admissions rate rose to 9.6% (1,209/12,589) in 2026 as a result of the lower number of applications.

I would love to know what people think about this. Do you really think nearly 28% fewer applicants decided to apply to USAFA in one year? That doesn't seem right to me. Do you think our sudden departure from Afghanistan had something to do with it, and if so why was the impact not the same for Army? I don't think the war in Ukraine had anything to do with it because fighting broke out well after applications were submitted. Do you think they are redefining what constitutes an applicant? Do you think it's a result of bad data related to the new computer system? I am curious to know what people think.

 

[Jacobko75]

Honestly I think the fact that more and more colleges making standardized testing optional has had some impact on it. As someone who just graduated high school, hardly anyone took sat/acts in my area, as why should they, you can now get into some of the best schools without them. Only specialized schools like MIT and SA's require them nowadays. I had to take the act 7 times throughout highschool, and have invested hundreds of hours of studying through various methods just to make minimal improvement. This isn't even mentioning how much money I spent on study books, tests, sending scores, etc. Like I know kids who had all ap/aice/Cambridge classes, perfect gpa's, and still score below average (for their desired schools), and instead of being a factor that helped them, instead hurt them when they could've just "opted out". It really is a predatory system, and I think the fact that it is required and is so heavily weighted with SA'S in particular steers a lot of would be applicants away. The military isnt the only way to serve or have purpose in life, which is what a lot of young people desire, so they choose the "easier" routes to gave that same sense of belonging instead.

However, that's all theoretical based off my personal experiences, I'm sure there are a thousand variables when it comes to this stuff. Could also just be what you speculated, redefining what constitutes as an applicant.

 

[Usnavy2019]

I think part of it is COVID related and I think the Academies are feeling the recruiting issues that the wider military is facing. Most young Americans are unqualified for military service. Even those that are qualified, there is a significant and growing civil-military divide in the US to overcome. The divide in a sentence is that American society is becoming further unaware of what the military is and how it operates. The military is becoming a society in and of itself more and more instead an entity that is made up of people from the society it protects.

 

[justdoit19]

I’ve seen discussion, that all college applications are down. In general.

 

[LoneStarParent]

Honestly I think the fact that more and more colleges making standardized testing optional has had some impact on it. As someone who just graduated high school, hardly anyone took sat/acts in my area, as why should they, you can now get into some of the best schools without them. Only specialized schools like MIT and SA's require them nowadays. I had to take the act 7 times throughout highschool, and have invested hundreds of hours of studying through various methods just to make minimal improvement. This isn't even mentioning how much money I spent on study books, tests, sending scores, etc. Like I know kids who had all ap/aice/Cambridge classes, perfect gpa's, and still score below average (for their desired schools), and instead of being a factor that helped them, instead hurt them when they could've just "opted out". It really is a predatory system, and I think the fact that it is required and is so heavily weighted with SA'S in particular steers a lot of would be applicants away. The military isnt the only way to serve or have purpose in life, which is what a lot of young people desire, so they choose the "easier" routes to gave that same sense of belonging instead.

However, that's all theoretical based off my personal experiences, I'm sure there are a thousand variables when it comes to this stuff. Could also just be what you speculated, redefining what constitutes as an applicant.

@Jacobko75 can you please point me to where you saw this? I am not able to find where this information is posted.

 

[LoneStarParent]

@Jacobko75 can you please point me to where you saw this? I am not able to find where this information is posted.

Sorry I meant to ask @DomerDad for where this was posted.

 

[Osprey123]

Vaccine mandate may has impacted apps

 

[DomerDad]

Sorry I meant to ask @DomerDad for where this was posted.

This was sent to USAFA parents

 

[LoneStarParent]

Thank you @DomerDad.

 

[DomerDad]

Vaccine mandate may has impacted apps

Perhaps, but last year USAFA had 1,615 more applicants than West Point. This year West Point had 4,196 more applicants than USAFA. Both schools had vaccine mandates. Something seems off.

 

[DomerDad]

I think part of it is COVID related and I think the Academies are feeling the recruiting issues that the wider military is facing. Most young Americans are unqualified for military service. Even those that are qualified, there is a significant and growing civil-military divide in the US to overcome. The divide in a sentence is that American society is becoming further unaware of what the military is and how it operates. The military is becoming a society in and of itself more and more instead an entity that is made up of people from the society it protects.

I hear what you are saying. Your argument makes sense, but wouldn't you expect West Point and USAFA to be down by similar percentages? -10% vs. -27.6% is significant.

 

[LoneStarParent]

"For the Class of 2026, as of November 16, 2021, the Common App reported a 13% increase in the number of college applicants and a 22% jump in the total applications submitted. In short, while there were more applicants this year, these applicants also applied to more schools than ever before."
As a point of reference

 

[Usnavy2019]

I'm guessing it is most likely a combination of outreach/recruiting budget/strategy and name recognition. I feel West Point is known by more people compared to USAFA.

 

[Frog97]

My son knew he wanted to apply to USAFA & Navy for years. In the middle of his junior year he received a letter from West Point that said based on scores, blah blah he should consider applying. We discussed & he decided to apply for Summer Seminars with all 3. He was accepted and able to attend West Point & Navy‘s because they were virtual but I think the virtual seminars turned a lot of people off. It worked great for him & West Point put together an impressive package of swag and a great virtual product. Then he was invited to a dinner to learn more about West Point. Needless to say those efforts pushed him to apply there as well. He‘s at USAFA and thrilled but from our experience West Point had amazing outreach, USAFA & Navy had zero. at the time I thought it might just be our area, we hear of kids going to USAFA and Navy all the time and not as much to West Point, but this makes me wonder.

 

[Small Team Bacsi]

And next year the numbers will climb.

24% of Americans who wanted to attend the USAFA did not all at once change their mind in one year. Not for the long haul.

Short haul covid, vax, overall fatigue, an increase the previous year all and more could well have led to a temp turn down.

And the possible answer——-Tom Cruise and that darn movie. Look to see a possible giant increase at the USNA

 

[jeffinCharlotte]

Has to be vaccines. But I will say USMA is the only service academy that pursued my daughter. Pretty hard actually. Several letters and even a web call. The other academies did not call or reach out to her even once. But she went to USAFA. 2026

 

[Charlie W]

Has to be vaccines. But I will say USMA is the only service academy that pursued my daughter. Pretty hard actually. Several letters and even a web call. The other academies did not call or reach out to her even once. But she went to USAFA. 2026

Ditto to the above, I'm admittedly only a rising junior but have been getting a lot of (e)mail from USMA (possibly in part due to expressed interest), a bit here and there from USNA, and absolutely nothing from USAFA.

 

[Small Team Bacsi]

I think part of it is COVID related and I think the Academies are feeling the recruiting issues that the wider military is facing. Most young Americans are unqualified for military service. Even those that are qualified, there is a significant and growing civil-military divide in the US to overcome. The divide in a sentence is that American society is becoming further unaware of what the military is and how it operates. The military is becoming a society in and of itself more and more instead an entity that is made up of people from the society it protects.

It’s not just the general military civilian divide.

we have a similar divide here

On these SA forums with so many pro military people I have seen some variation of this from any number of parents when discussing the military academy , their DC , and explaining things to friends and neighbors etc

””well it’s not like they are going enlisted”

And I have seen more than one youngster wanting to go enlisted but talked out or forbidden by the parents to do so.

Many parents on these forums would run away dragging their DC with them as fast as they could , if they thought their DC would end up having to go the enlisted route when they applied to the SA.

 

[FalconDad2026]

The percent decline in qualified candidates is even more striking, resulting in a very high percent (77%) of those qualified ultimately receiving an offer of admission.

Perhaps COVID-related impact on academic performance (academic DQ) and mental health diagnoses and drug therapies (medical DQ) resulted in both fewer people applying and fewer people successfully qualifying. Plus, an unfavorable portrayal of law enforcement, military and similar professions in the last few years may have steered away those toying with the idea of an SA, who would have opened an application in years past, but never really pursued it whole-heartedly.

Ivy league schools, other T20 schools, and many more schools also require the vaccine(s) and all saw an increase in the number of applications, so the vaccine does not seem a likely reason.

Our experience with the marketing efforts of USMA, USNA and USAFA was the same as others have noted. USMA had great letters, local meetings, personal contact with reps, overnight visit offer, etc.. It's difficult for young people to commit to a difficult application process and the prospect of a 9-year commitment for a school that they can't visit and don't get personal attention from. That's a risk/reward proposition that only lends itself to those who knew they wanted USAFA years in advance of the application cycle.

 

[JP4]

Hmmm, wondering myself why such a big hit here and not other academies (or is it just not known yet?). My initial thought would be the same reasons given in the rash of articles lately regarding declining enlistments and lavish recruiting bonuses. Mandatory covid vax, rising wokeness, pronouns, disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, disappointment in leadership from Milley and Austin, the war on extremism and white supremacy, military families not recommending their children follow in their footsteps, suicide stories, ongoing proxy war in Ukraine, etc.. That said this should be somewhat offset by people that see some of this list as positives and progress.

I would think though that people that want to go to an academy wouldn't be so easily deterred and perhaps would put up with most everything on this list to reach their goals.

I would hesitate to commit to college right now with the chance of yet another semester/year on lockdown and isolation for covid. Perhaps many are waiting it out for a year to see what happens.