USAFA Applications down 27.6%?

Korab said:
Why are the increases hard to believe?
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Korab,
Over the years, SAT score changes from year to year for all of the service academies were a small single digit number either up or down. Seeing the Math SAT score mean jump almost a hundred points in a relatively short period of time (decade or two) seems like a statistical anomaly. For example, the change between 2019 and 2025 alone was 70 points! I have in my possession the class profiles to verify those facts. When my son was applying for a SA in 2010, the range of SAT scores for all of the SAs would have been about 635-660 (as I recall). Seeing the USAFA Class of 2025 come in at 743Math and 711Verbal seems statistically unlikely - but the profiles are what they are. As a prior USAFA faculty engineering asst prof and statistics adjunct faculty member (Graduate /undergraduate) for ERAU, I am pleasantly surprised to see such a large increase in SAT scores. I also wonder why similar increases didn't also occur at USMA and USNA.

BTW, the mean SAT scores for my USAFA class would probably be automatically disqualifying these days. So much change! I'm glad we didn't have to compete against this younger generation.
 
It's not hard to believe at all: the academies went test optional for a short time during covid, so in addition to the folks who couldn't get a testing slot there appear to be a lot of folks who didn't get a tremendous score who quietly didn't send in average or worse scores. If you let the applicants decide if they want to report their scores the only ones who are really motivated to get them in are the ones who crushed it. Test scores rise at every school where testing is no longer required.
 
Falcon74 said:
Korab,
Over the years, SAT score changes from year to year for all of the service academies were a small single digit number either up or down. Seeing the Math SAT score mean jump almost a hundred points in a relatively short period of time (decade or two) seems like a statistical anomaly. For example, the change between 2019 and 2025 alone was 70 points! I have in my possession the class profiles to verify those facts. When my son was applying for a SA in 2010, the range of SAT scores for all of the SAs would have been about 635-660 (as I recall). Seeing the USAFA Class of 2025 come in at 743Math and 711Verbal seems statistically unlikely - but the profiles are what they are. As a prior USAFA faculty engineering asst prof and statistics adjunct faculty member (Graduate /undergraduate) for ERAU, I am pleasantly surprised to see such a large increase in SAT scores. I also wonder why similar increases didn't also occur at USMA and USNA.

BTW, the mean SAT scores for my USAFA class would probably be automatically disqualifying these days. So much change! I'm glad we didn't have to compete against this younger generation.
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'25 is just built like that
 
StPaulDad said:
It's not hard to believe at all: the academies went test optional for a short time during covid, so in addition to the folks who couldn't get a testing slot there appear to be a lot of folks who didn't get a tremendous score who quietly didn't send in average or worse scores. If you let the applicants decide if they want to report their scores the only ones who are really motivated to get them in are the ones who crushed it. Test scores rise at every school where testing is no longer required.
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I think this is a very good explanation for why the jump might have occurred in the SAT scores.
 
StPaulDad said:
It's not hard to believe at all: the academies went test optional for a short time during covid, so in addition to the folks who couldn't get a testing slot there appear to be a lot of folks who didn't get a tremendous score who quietly didn't send in average or worse scores. If you let the applicants decide if they want to report their scores the only ones who are really motivated to get them in are the ones who crushed it. Test scores rise at every school where testing is no longer required.
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StPaulDad,
Thank you! That is an interesting point I hadn't considered. Assuming that what you contributed is correct, why didn't scores at USMA and USNA also increase if all of the academies went test optional? USMA had means of 650V and 666M for the Class of 2025. USNA had mid ranges of 610-720M and 620-710V.

According to the USAFA Admissions Office, the only Cadets not included in the SAT data were international cadets and prep schoolers.

I continue to be suspicious about SAT score reporting from USAFA. If the answer is incomplete data, then why report the misleading data at all?
 
Falcon74 said:
StPaulDad,
Thank you! That is an interesting point I hadn't considered. Assuming that what you contributed is correct, why didn't scores at USMA and USNA also increase if all of the academies went test optional? USMA had means of 650V and 666M for the Class of 2025. USNA had mid ranges of 610-720M and 620-710V.

According to the USAFA Admissions Office, the only Cadets not included in the SAT data were international cadets and prep schoolers.

I continue to be suspicious about SAT score reporting from USAFA. If the answer is incomplete data, then why report the misleading data at all?
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Isn’t USAFA and the air force in general more STEM related as well? Typically STEM focused ppl are better at testing. Idk though I’m also asking for confirmation on the question, it’s something I was told
 
armypanda_ said:
Isn’t USAFA and the air force in general more STEM related as well? Typically STEM focused ppl are better at testing. Idk though I’m also asking for confirmation on the question, it’s something I was told
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Historically, SAT scores for the academies were relatively close to each other, although USAFA tended to score a bit higher than USMA/USNA. The published difference was relatively small. Cadets at all SAs need to have solid STEM skills.
 
@Falcon74 The bigger swing at USAFA could have happened if they didn't press for scores as hard as the other academies. (Did they require a reason for not submitting scores? I honestly don't know.) Again, I'm not sure we'll ever know everything that went on, but it should start showing up in the next couple months whether this dip was an aberration or trend.
 
Falcon74 said:
Korab,
Over the years, SAT score changes from year to year for all of the service academies were a small single digit number either up or down. Seeing the Math SAT score mean jump almost a hundred points in a relatively short period of time (decade or two) seems like a statistical anomaly. For example, the change between 2019 and 2025 alone was 70 points! I have in my possession the class profiles to verify those facts. When my son was applying for a SA in 2010, the range of SAT scores for all of the SAs would have been about 635-660 (as I recall). Seeing the USAFA Class of 2025 come in at 743Math and 711Verbal seems statistically unlikely - but the profiles are what they are. As a prior USAFA faculty engineering asst prof and statistics adjunct faculty member (Graduate /undergraduate) for ERAU, I am pleasantly surprised to see such a large increase in SAT scores. I also wonder why similar increases didn't also occur at USMA and USNA.

BTW, the mean SAT scores for my USAFA class would probably be automatically disqualifying these days. So much change! I'm glad we didn't have to compete against this younger generation.
Click to expand...
My theory is it has more to do with admissions and the congressional nomination boards than the kids. Academics seem to be receiving more emphasis at the expense of everything else. Some of the passing PFE scores you see on here are embarrassing for applicants to a military academy. A reasonably fit 50 year old could post them.

There’s an ulterior motive involved by someone, somewhere.

Also, don’t feel too bad about your class’s scores - scores from from 30 years ago are not equivalent to todays exams. In 2016, they removed the penalty for incorrect answers, and decreased the number of multiple choice answers from 5 to 4. It’s easier than ever to score high, especially with the academies super scoring and encouraging kids to take the SAT multiple times. And if you think it’s bad now, wait until they add in adversity scores!
 
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Korab said:
My theory is it has more to do with admissions and the congressional nomination boards than the kids. Academics seem to be receiving more emphasis at the expense of everything else. Some of the passing PFE scores you see on here are embarrassing for applicants to a military academy. A reasonably fit 50 year old could post them.

There’s an ulterior motive involved by someone, somewhere.

Also, don’t feel too bad about your class’s scores - scores from from 30 years ago are not equivalent to todays exams. In 2016, they removed the penalty for incorrect answers, and decreased the number of multiple choice answers from 5 to 4. It’s easier than ever to score high, especially with the academies super scoring and encouraging kids to take the SAT multiple times. And if you think it’s bad now, wait until they add in adversity scores!
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Interesting story from a class reunion some years ago: As graduates, we frequently comment about the fact that we are glad we didn't have to compete for an appointment against a recently admitted class. One day, we (reunion class) were being addressed by the Sup/Comm/Dean/etc. The Commandant told the following story. He was speaking to a representative of the Admissions Office one day when he asked, "Does the Admissions Office keep all of the old paper admissions records"? He received an affirmative response form the Admissions Office representative. The Commandant then asked, "On a zero-priority basis, could you look at my admissions record and give me an honest answer as to whether or not I would be offered an appointment if I were competing against the records of the last admitted class." A few weeks later, the representative came back to the Commandant's Office to provide the bad news. The Commandant confessed to my class that he would not have been competitive with current admissions standards. We all felt the same way about our individual situations.
 
StPaulDad said:
It's not hard to believe at all: the academies went test optional for a short time during covid, so in addition to the folks who couldn't get a testing slot there appear to be a lot of folks who didn't get a tremendous score who quietly didn't send in average or worse scores. If you let the applicants decide if they want to report their scores the only ones who are really motivated to get them in are the ones who crushed it. Test scores rise at every school where testing is no longer required.
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Testing wasn’t ‘optional’ in the sense you are speaking. It was ‘optional’, in that kids who had no opportunity to test, could still be considered. The student had to provide evidence of this, if I remember correctly….but for sure, admissions knew where testing wasn’t available geographically.

Adding: at least this was the case at USNA.
 
My theory is thus:
SATS are normalized each session. Since half the kids didnt take it, the deviations had a lot more room for changes. Many of the elite didnt have to keep taking it over and over, so there were less students at the top to "ruin the curve".

Our state still had SATs as normal, especially the one during school hours in Jan/Feb when most of the single time only takers would have taken it. So, the bottom half of curve was likely still in place. It seems logical that someone trying for an SA would have had an advantage that year over most others, assuming they were above average.

What that doesnt cover is why AF rose higher than Army or Navy.
 
Another factor to consider - that I have yet to see any reasoned debate on - is the demographic makeup of today's enlistees or applicants to USAFA and its relevance: 30% of military entrants have or had a parent who served and more than 70% have or had a family member who served. A majority of today's potential recruits grew up during the two-decade-long Global War on Terror (GWOT) and saw their mothers, fathers, or other important family members deploying to and from the "sand box." Frequent and prolong separations from close family members can negatively impact a child's upbringing, not to mention their view of the military.

My old man deployed three times ISO Op Northern/Southern Watch back in the late '90s and it really made signing that bottom line a difficult thing to agree to. And I can only imagine what those youngsters back at Ft. Bragg must have felt when they saw their Ma or Pap leave on that 3rd or 4th deployment for 12 to 15 months. Now their all grown up. Is it any wonder how they might feel when that recruiter is trolling the halls of their high school?

Perhaps the current recruiting crisis is today's young generation refusing to join an organization that took a great deal from them. Addressing this means not only reassuring today's recruits they'll have better than their parents did, but taking measures to ensure it happens. FY 23's looming force and budget cuts in spite of this existential issue liken back to SECDEF Rumsfeld's illogical decision to RIF the DoD in the middle OIF/OEF - neither a good look, nor a step in the right direction. Our military has grown too small and its versatility and increased workload have robbed its people of the esprit many of the old-timers in here frequently liken back to, but then fail to understand where it went in today's ranks.

Wokeness, last year's withdrawal from Afghanistan, and COVID may explain why the DoD is coming up short. But as the son of a 20-year veteran and as a 20-year veteran myself, I know the GWOT's impact on military families features in this crisis. Like so many of our modern problems, the solution can be found in taking better care of our people.

My humble nickel...
 
Sly, if wokeness ( what ever that means to people and I assume it only means something to those constantly talking about it ) and Covid are a possible answer to this down turn then so may be the recent attack on our capital and Vice President .

But it’s hard to blame far too many deployments , along with ending a major reason for far to many deployments , as both being the cause for the down turn.
 
IMO, as with most things, the real answer is not one single element. We are living in strange times…a couple years ago people hoarded toilet paper. We don’t have cars on the sales lots and are paying g full price for ones we order, arriving months down the road. Kids had schooling via zoom. Parents work from home. College was behind closed doors with food served doorside in a styrofoam shell. We are in a recession. And Russia and China are conducting war games together.

Why wouldn’t college applications also experience hiccups?

Locally, we had a story about military enrollment not hitting their numbers. Military explained that the recruiters were not allowed in schools for career fairs, etc, for 2 years (which generates interest). Those recruiters were also put on hold in their OWN training pipelines to be recruiters (no training). And, there were less of them bc of delays in assigning them to recruiter status.

So, instead of 5 trained recruiters getting into schools to spread the word, there was one, untrained recruiter, not allowed access to students. And beyond that, knowledge about applying to a SA, for some, is for sure a result of outreach or exposure such as this (for certain it was in our family, which resulted in one Air Force, and two Midshipmen sons!! That’s THREE right there that wouldn’t be in the military without school recruitment exposure!).

Put it all in a blender and shake it up, and imo, it all contributes. Like most things, it’s not one single thing. We are still living in weird times, and no reason to believe that SA applications aren’t also affected.

The bigger picture, imo, is whether there is a problem creating a qualified class. And given that every year, highly qualified candidates are not appointed, I doubt it. Imo, like I tell my kids ‘it’s not a problem, until it’s a problem’. Heck, the drop in applications could even be a result of how applications are tabulated. I have no clue. But maybe it doesn’t even matter. I guess it gives the forum something to debate 😂
 
Avidreader said:
All good ideas posited on this thread. There are so many factors at play. I doubt that it is bad data. My sense about the initial drop off in application #s would be COVID disruption/fatigue. I was surprised that the 2025 #s were as strong as they were. But the class of 2026 really felt the brunt of it during their sophomore and junior years. These kiddos have not had the benefit of a "normal" high school experience and education, like a battleship, does not turn on a dime. It's going to be awhile to correct this course. I would expect to see slightly lower standardized testing scores as the impact of virtual learning is felt in math and less so in reading. GPAs probably won't see much of a dip.

As a candidate mom, current high school teacher, and former college admissions coordinator, I think:

a) there has been a significant disruption to high school counseling/recruiting/mentoring/outreach during the COVID era. Any number of prospective candidates may have simply missed out because they weren't aware enough of the SA opportunities. And we all know that candidates have to start this process early and on point.

b) high achieving students may unfortunately be more likely to self-select out if they feel they are not checking all the boxes: academics, EC, athletics, and leadership. It's really great to see mentors on here encouraging everyone to apply and shoot their best shot. I've heard the same message from attending virtual admission events and in person tours. I hope it's getting through to the kids.

It remains to be seen if this is a blip or a trend. I'm hoping blip. Our kids still have a lot of grit, talent, perseverance, and determination. I have the utmost respect for kids who are making it through this process and/or just making it through this time. I think with a little more recruiting, the numbers will swing back.

This is also a bit of a numbers racket. In regular college admissions, application #s to selective schools are trending up as they drop testing requirements. This makes it look like admission rates at these schools are falling. But really, it's always the qualified candidates competing, just like the SAs. They just don't disclose the #s of qualified candidates.

I don't see a big drop in the % of qualified candidates at USAFA. There was a 28% drop in applications, there was an almost corresponding drop of 25% in the qualified pool. My admissions hat may be a little dusty, but I think those two numbers should correlate. Once actual admission standards and admit yield rates start to wobble, then there may be a problem. But I don't see evidence of that from these #s. On the bright side, I see 1071 well qualified cadets who are on their way.
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As was cited earlier - from a competitiveness standpoint, despite the lower application number, there remained a very high bar to clear to be qualified. In fact this year, only 21% of the class qualified vs 29% the year before. That said, 30% more of the qualified candidates were admitted this year. 16% overall acceptance rate vs 12% for class of 2025 - still very low and it’s just exceedingly difficult to get into an academy.

Don’t think for a second that schools like Harvard and most already selective schools that dropped the SAT/ACT who now have very low acceptance rates have all of sudden a better crop of students. It’s the opposite. Applications skyrocketed because of the dropping of tests. As a school administrator who has extensive experience in a selective high school, Many kids applying to elite schools are now are simply not qualified. They will do fine because there is very real grade inflation on college campuses. The academies may be the only place this is not the case.

Testing is the only way to truly differentiate(other than AP tests) given all the supposedly amazing kids out there applying from completely different schools.There is massive grade inflation in high schools, especially after Covid - kids were given high grades out of sympathy. The absence of testing has empowered admissions to meet a host of other priorities - diversity, legacy, sports, oboe players donors, etc. Thank God the academies didn’t just go with the trend and drop standardized tests.

As I watched my son go through the selection process both for the academies and ROTC vs a host of other schools he applied to I was so impressed with the depth of analysis and rigor of the process. The academies are doing it right. Getting to meet the kids on A Day and parents weekend I’m in awe of these outstanding young people and confirms my thinking about the process. These individuals are exceptional in a host of ways. They are the right selections.

12%, 16%, higher rate of appointments for qualified candidates, drop in applications, whatever, I have 100% confidence in the admissions process at our academies and trust this will continue despite an unfortunate decline in respect for the military and doing hard things in general among young people that may make this trend more long standing.

Although Tim biased I think cadet belongs there and I believe they got it right. Even if he’s not loving every minute of Being a C4C). I would have felt similarly if he didn’t get an appointment. I agree with this decision for the other academy he didn’t get into. It wasn’t as good of a fit and they knew it.

I’m honored to just be associated with these schools and the cadets who represent the best of America
 
This commentary has a lot of interesting linked docs regarding DEI at USNA. You can read or skip his take but the linked docs are fascinating.

cdrsalamander.blogspot.com

Diversity Thursday

This is one of those DivThu that could be a, in a word, tome. As such, I am only going to pull a small portion of the things I normally woul...
cdrsalamander.blogspot.com cdrsalamander.blogspot.com
 
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