USAFA Job Drops Tomorrow

My son is only a junior C2C but I watched his squads seniors receive their jobs today. I shed a couple tears of happiness for some of the reactions as they were so happy, relieved what they have been working towards had finally come to fruition. I know for a fact I will get ZERO sleep next year the night before job drops for my son.
 
I was fortunate enough to watch a live stream and it was quite fun. The "dream sheet" to AF Personnel is different than when we selected jobs by walking into a lecture hall in class order of merit. If the job was there, and did not require a specific degree or medical qual, you simply picked it off the board and everyone behind you adjusted to what was left on the big board - much closer to today's USNA SWO selection event.

The added dimension of NEEDS OF THE AIR FORCE makes this no longer a sure thing, but for the vast majority of Firsties, it does appear that they received their first pick.
 
Wondering how many pilot slots USAFA was allotted this year ? Probably won’t know factual numbers for a couple weeks. Anyway, I hope they are allotted 1000 next year when it’s my sons turn 😉 🤞🏼
 
Bigrod said:
Wondering how many pilot slots USAFA was allotted this year ? Probably won’t know factual numbers for a couple weeks. Anyway, I hope they are allotted 1000 next year when it’s my sons turn 😉 🤞🏼
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According to my C3C there were 490 (around), then he heard that '23ers may have over 600 (pilot shortage). He said he heard if you are pilot qualified and don't put it down you may end up with it anyway. They have to put their choices in by Dec. 4th. This is all hearsay, from hearsay, and nothing official.
 
Also heard of the pilot shortage from ALO who interviewed DS. So it would seem there are more slots available this year.
 
dah19 said:
According to my C3C there were 490 (around), then he heard that '23ers may have over 600 (pilot shortage). He said he heard if you are pilot qualified and don't put it down you may end up with it anyway. They have to put their choices in by Dec. 4th. This is all hearsay, from hearsay, and nothing official.
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I can confirm this ad my son texted me and said his jobs sheet needs to be turned in by December 2nd. I told him if he wanted to we could discuss all his options when he comes home for Thanksgiving next week. I know if he could put Pilot down on every line he would but I also know it doesn’t work that way.
 
dah19 said:
According to my C3C there were 490 (around), then he heard that '23ers may have over 600 (pilot shortage). He said he heard if you are pilot qualified and don't put it down you may end up with it anyway. They have to put their choices in by Dec. 4th. This is all hearsay, from hearsay, and nothing official.
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My son is C1C and he was blessed to have his first choice as pilot-- he was telling me he has a few friends who wanted other positions and they were given pilot slots --- so it does seem if they have spots to fill they could place one there even if they did not request it.
 
coach86 said:
My son is C1C and he was blessed to have his first choice as pilot-- he was telling me he has a few friends who wanted other positions and they were given pilot slots --- so it does seem if they have spots to fill they could place one there even if they did not request it.
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Congratulations to your son. I wish him the best and to finish the academic year strong and keep setting the standards and good examples of being a cadet at USAFA.
 
dah19 said:
According to my C3C there were 490 (around), then he heard that '23ers may have over 600 (pilot shortage). He said he heard if you are pilot qualified and don't put it down you may end up with it anyway. They have to put their choices in by Dec. 4th. This is all hearsay, from hearsay, and nothing official.
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I've heard this throughout my time as a cadet that pilot slots for the Academy will continue to increase due to the pilot shortage. However, the latest I have heard (from a professor) is that pilot slots will stay at 400-500 for the foreseeable future. The reason: more pilot slots are being allocated to ROTC, because ROTC cadets are on average outperforming Academy cadets in UPT. This is because the Academy cadet that barely scrapes by with a 2.0 and is ranked 800+ will struggle throughout UPT, while the ROTC cadet who has a 3.0 and is in the top 25% of their commissioning source will see much more success.

We learned this lesson from c/o 2019 which got ~600 slots (legend has it the very last ranked cadet got one). 2019 then went on to have greater washout rates than ROTC cadets. The decision to limit Academy slots is unfortunate for us USAFA cadets, but probably better for the AF long term.
 
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Small_Goose said:
I've heard this throughout my time as a cadet that pilot slots for the Academy will continue to increase due to the pilot shortage. However, the latest I have heard (from a professor) is that pilot slots will stay at 400-500 for the foreseeable future. The reason: more pilot slots are being allocated to ROTC, because ROTC cadets are on average outperforming Academy cadets in UPT. This is because the Academy cadet that barely scrapes by with a 2.0 and is ranked 800+ will struggle throughout UPT, while the ROTC cadet who has a 3.0 and is in the top 25% of their commissioning source will see much more success.

We learned this lesson from c/o 2019 which got ~600 slots (legend has it the very last ranked cadet got one). 2019 then went on to have greater washout rates than ROTC cadets. The decision to limit Academy slots is unfortunate for us USAFA cadets, but probably better for the AF long term.
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What was your source on that? I kind of doubt this for a couple reasons. 1. College academic performance does not correlate well with UPT performance. 2. This supposed discrepancy hasn't altered the last 50ish years of training. 3. Wash out rates are low, currently, and the AF is accepting less-trained UPT grads to meet numbers.
 
Small_Goose said:
I've heard this throughout my time as a cadet that pilot slots for the Academy will continue to increase due to the pilot shortage. However, the latest I have heard (from a professor) is that pilot slots will stay at 400-500 for the foreseeable future. The reason: more pilot slots are being allocated to ROTC, because ROTC cadets are on average outperforming Academy cadets in UPT. This is because the Academy cadet that barely scrapes by with a 2.0 and is ranked 800+ will struggle throughout UPT, while the ROTC cadet who has a 3.0 and is in the top 25% of their commissioning source will see much more success.

We learned this lesson from c/o 2019 which got ~600 slots (legend has it the very last ranked cadet got one). 2019 then went on to have greater washout rates than ROTC cadets. The decision to limit Academy slots is unfortunate for us USAFA cadets, but probably better for the AF long term.
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Okay...I'm home with some "bug" so I probably shouldn't write this but...eh, pilot logic: "beak to beak" approach.

I would LOVE to see ANY data on this other than emotional or opinion.

Let me address this in reverse. First, the limit on pilot slots even though we're in a critical shortage of pilots. Don't expect those numbers to rise anytime soon. Why? Capacity. In years past we had MANY more airframes and at least three more SUPT bases. Today, we have four SUPT bases, three of which have the full capacity (ENJJPT has a USA capacity limitation to ensure it's a NATO program) for USAF lieutenants. The limiting factors: IP availability (they're bailing out), airframe availability, follow-on training slot availability. Then there are budgetary issues with "continuing resolutions" vs a federal budget. That limits the spending, the "pots of money" that can be used, mandates cuts, etc. Maintenance is a huge cost of SUPT (heck, ALL flying) and that keeps airframes on the ground, limiting the flight time available. Now...you graduate 1000 cadets from USAFA and perhaps 4000 ROTC cadets and commission them all. You promise 900 of them pilot slots but can only put through @500 a year. There's now a delay, up to a year or so. And the backlog continues...

That's just "touching the tip of the iceberg" but gives you a "tiny idea" of the issues.

Now, let's look at the comment about academic performance. Your comment: "...the Academy cadet that barely scrapes by with a 2.0 and is ranked 800+ will struggle throughout UPT, while the ROTC cadet who has a 3.0 and is in the top 25% of their commissioning source will see much more success." Okay, I'm ready; please show me the source of this. I will bet there isn't one, it's "legend" or "common knowledge" or "gossip." I can only use personal experiences over 33 years of service. Academic standing had pretty much no impact on SUPT performance. Yes, there's a serious academic load in SUPT. It is NOT engineering, not mathematical (beyond simple numbers), not, not, not. It's learning rules and procedures. However, when you look at the elimination rates of SUPT students, the majority occur during flying training. And it's not that the student can't fly, it's that they can't fly in the military environment. What's that? They struggle with 3D thinking, working four steps ahead, thinking for more than one aircraft, working several radios, maintaining situational awareness, all at the same time. Flying is not hard. I've taught some absolute tools to fly. Flying a military aircraft in a military role is not easy and the more complex the aircraft or mission, and the difficulty level moves upward dramatically. My beloved F-15C is an EASY plane to fly! It's so forgiving, so docile, so easy to fly...now try to employ it. THAT IS A...challenge.

Academics at USAFA or "State U ROTC" and SUPT performance? I can't find any corroborating information on that. I can use myself as an example. My class has 958 graduates and there are 80 that were stunned to know that I graduated ahead of them in the order of merit; yes, I am number 878. I was #1 in UPT academics in my class and in the top 25% of my class overall. I found UPT to be "relaxed" compared to USAFA. I was NOT unusual. When I went to UPT we chose our base based upon our class ranking. In other words, at my base, we were ALMOST ENTIRELY the "bottom feeders." From my class at UPT? TBird pilot, F-16 PACAF demo pilot, flag officers, F-22 test pilot, etc...etc. Those were the USAFA grads; we also had some amazing ROTC grads that washed out, and some that graduated as honor grads and went on to great assignments and outstanding careers!

Okay...too long, too wordy; I just dislike comments that that without some data/evidence.
 
This reminds me is an anecdote I observed about two USNA sponsor mids, roommates, both good guys and good friends, both went Navy pilot in same class at Pensacola.

Mid A was an aero major, high 3.X GPA, completely dedicated mid in all respects. Mid B was in deep lower third of class in terms of OOM, History major. Played a lot of video games to despair of Mid A hitting the books hard in the room. Had a very active social life. Guess who did the best in graded flight hops, no do-overs? Guess who buckled down and did just as well as Mid A in ground school? Guess who got the lone jet slot out of their section? Whether service academy, ROTC or OCS, a new line is drawn at flight school, and the myriad factors that go into the making of a military pilot come to the fore, and it’s not just how well they did in their commissioning program.
 
@flieger83 @raimius
Both of you bring up very good points that inspired me to do a little more digging on the internet to see what information I could find that would shed light on predictors for success in pilot training.

BLUF: Any academic research I could find was based on data from ~2010 to 2018, so its not very relevant to my assertion of higher washout rates from the c/o 2019 (who were graduating UPT in 2020). However, I believe it establishes a baseline for what was occurring before 2020.

Firstly, this is a RAND Corp paper on the relationship between demographics and pilot training attrition. Most of it isn't relevant except for a chart on pp 37. The chart shows that student pilots who commission through OTS have the lowest dropout rates in both IFT and UPT. (Correct me if I'm wrong), but logically this makes sense, as OTS grads are often guard/reserve hires who went through extremely competitive applications for their units, and often are very well prepared for pilot training. ROTC student pilots have higher washout rates than USAFA students in IFT, but equivalent rates in UPT.
https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1057350.pdf
Main takeaway: Before 2019, commissioning source had little effect on UPT washout rates.

Next is this paper written by 3 authors from Wright-Patterson AFB. It explores factors used to select candidates for pilot training (PCSM, TBAS, AFOQT, commissioning source, academic major, etc.), and their effect on success at UPT (measured as attrition, distinguished graduate, etc.)
Most informative is a Figure #7, which lists "Degree Type" and "Commissioning Source" as the two strongest predictors of success in UPT, followed by "Number of AFOQT Retests". Frustratingly, I couldn't find anywhere where these variables were actually defined - so what they mean is up to interpretation. My best guess is that Degree Type refers to STEM degrees, and Commissioning Source refers to OTS.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012121001130#!
Main takeaway: Between 2011 and 2018, degree type followed by commissioning source were the strongest predictors for success in UPT.


Conclusion: It appears to me there is a 2-3 year lag between what occurs in pilot training and when that data is analyzed and published in academic research. My earlier comment was poorly worded, and did not capture very well my intent. However, it was written based on information from a professor currently involved in the conversations concerning pilot slot numbers for c/o 2023. My main point is that I doubt more than 60% of a graduating class will get pilot slots in the foreseeable future. The academic example was incomplete, and should have sounded more like "the least qualified USAFA cadets (as defined by PCSM, GOM and selection boards) probably aren't going to be as successful as above-average ROTC cadets (by the same metrics)." Finally, as a cadet I really don't see a high level of interest in UPT (>50% of the class) from my classmates, and I don't believe that the "everyone gets a pilot slot" approach to USAFA is a very good idea.

ok. Time to go finish my English essay now 😅
 
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