I'm in the same situation. I've been told by USNA directly that you will be offered a Conditional Offer of Appointment and then you will go through the waiver process. This is coming directly from a health technician at the Academy. It's Conditional Offer first, then waiver if they deem you eligible for one. This makes sense to me as why waste time going through the waiver process for a candidate who probably isn't competitive for appointment. I know there is a lot of speculation on this site, but this is what I've been told directly from the Academy.