WAITING !

THParent said:
2. If you're planning on doing anything in the military, you are going to have to get used to waiting.
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Dear Admins,

Please change my forum name to "Snowflake"

Your pal,
Lazyboy


:biggrin:
 
Ha!

Thanks for the post! Pretty accurate based on my (brief) experience in this forum and contact with people I know in the Military. If they're good at their jobs, they know very well what "hurry up and wait" means!

In fact, I'd argue reading the "waiting posts" stresses me out...waiting in general without being constantly reminded is a lot easier and doesn't distress me at all.
 
If you watch any movie about D-Day you will understand what waiting in the military is like. (D-Day was postponed a couple of times with men sitting on transport ships waiting for the weather to clear)
 
What Are My Odds?
That's the thing I tend to read the most on these forums (plus the "are my CFA scores passing?" threads)

I put the following together, based on what I could glean from last year's data:
  • In 2016, there were 19,145 applications to The United States Naval Academy.
  • Of those 19,145 applications, approximately 18,000 were assigned candidate numbers.
  • Of those 18,000 candidates, approximately 10,000 were triple-qualified (3Q’d).
  • Of those 10,000 3Q’d candidates, approximately 3,000 received nominations.
  • Of those 3,000 candidates, only 1,426 were extended Offers of Appointment.
  • Of those 1,426 appointments, 1,229 were enrolled on Induction Day.
The odds therefore were 1,229 in 19,145, or 6% admitted.
(From a glass-is-half-empty view, 94% of applicants were rejected).

USNA “tied” with Columbia and Yale as the 3rd hardest college to get into @ 6%.
(Tied for 2nd – Harvard and Stanford @ 5%).
(Tied for 1st – Alice Lloyd College and the Curtis Institute of Music @ 4%) <-- personally had never heard of either of these.
 
To extend THParent’s analysis:

  • Roughly 14% of QUALIFIED candidates received an Offer of Appointment.
  • Roughly 48% of QUALIFIED and NOMINATED candidates received an Offer of Appointment.
My Conclusion: You have to be in the top half of qualified candidates to receive an appointment. From what I have gleaned from other posts, this top 50% is based on WCS and NOT individual test scores or achievements.
 
Reminder: CFA is only 10% of WCS.
 
For what it's worth....

My daughter's BGO said this year --for class of 2022-- she was told the initial applicants were approx. 60,000! I asked her to repeat what she said twice! I told her that during USNA orientation, we were told last year (for class of 2021) there were approx. 20,000 applicants. (Which is what THParent posted). BGO said yes, the past year there were approx. 20k applicants. But for this incoming class, the # of initial applicants had indeed tripled so far! She said not to worry, that lots of people begin the process and never finish, and that will be an even bigger percentage this year.

But I don't think it matters to me personally how many begin the application. I'm more concerned with the # of candidates in my DD's current group. Meaning, she's assigned a candidate number at the moment, which again, to me, isn't a big hurdle to cross. Getting to be 3Q'd- now that's where the hurdles really begin. I'm going to presume that my DD will be 3Q'd- no academic, medical or CFA issues to speak of. And she's been granted interviews with our congressman and both senators, so hopefully (!!) she earns a nomination. With each hurdle, your chances of appointment obviously increase. I try to focus on those increasingly smaller numbers (or increasing larger percentages!).

BTW, we are very, very new to this- no prior experience- so I have no frame of reference or a way to verify what we were told. Nonetheless, bottom line it's fiercely competitive!

Good luck to all!
 
Wishful said:
Reminder: CFA is only 10% of WCS.
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Wishful, do you know the breakdown percentages for the other parts of the WCS? Academic, leadership, etc....
I thought the CFA was more like pass/fail and that it could only boost your WCS a point or two if it were extraordinary. This isn't correct?
 
WCS: Academic 60%
Extra Curricular 30%
CFA 10%
 
THParent said:
What Are My Odds?
...

USNA “tied” with Columbia and Yale as the 3rd hardest college to get into @ 6%.
(Tied for 2nd – Harvard and Stanford @ 5%).
(Tied for 1st – Alice Lloyd College and the Curtis Institute of Music @ 4%) <-- personally had never heard of either of these.
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Appreciate the effort to to lay this out.

Curtis Institute (in Philly) - reminds me of an enduring family story told by my DMIL about her DS, my DH - who was accepted to Curtis, was offered a USMA appointment, and was an alternate for USNA. Without telling parents, DH declined Curtis (had/has a well-trained tenor voice but thought making a living with it was iffy), turned down USMA (great place, too much gray) and decided to take his chances with USNA, because he wanted a shot at pilot and to play baseball. He was also accepted at schools with NROTC scholarships. Not long before I-Day, the USNA appointment arrived. DH had simply mailed off the replies while his parents were out on a Saturday in January, and they returned home to face one of those Waiting periods that we read about here on SAF.
 
THParent said:
What Are My Odds?
That's the thing I tend to read the most on these forums (plus the "are my CFA scores passing?" threads)

I put the following together, based on what I could glean from last year's data:
  • In 2016, there were 19,145 applications to The United States Naval Academy.
  • Of those 19,145 applications, approximately 18,000 were assigned candidate numbers.
  • Of those 18,000 candidates, approximately 10,000 were triple-qualified (3Q’d).
  • Of those 10,000 3Q’d candidates, approximately 3,000 received nominations.
  • Of those 3,000 candidates, only 1,426 were extended Offers of Appointment.
  • Of those 1,426 appointments, 1,229 were enrolled on Induction Day.
The odds therefore were 1,229 in 19,145, or 6% admitted.
(From a glass-is-half-empty view, 94% of applicants were rejected).

USNA “tied” with Columbia and Yale as the 3rd hardest college to get into @ 6%.
(Tied for 2nd – Harvard and Stanford @ 5%).
(Tied for 1st – Alice Lloyd College and the Curtis Institute of Music @ 4%) <-- personally had never heard of either of these.
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The Curtis Institute of Music is indeed incredibly hard to get into. Very small number of vacancies each year, and a full ride to anyone who does get accepted. (i.e. like a SA, all the students there are "full scholarship" students)
 
That 10+ yr old Rand study was done for WP and is often quoted out of context here. USNA has never published their WCS and you can't assume all SA's are the same or that it hasn't changed over time. You will frequently find someone on here who got an appointment to one SA but a TWE to another, so obviously there are some differences.
 
THParent said:
What Are My Odds?
That's the thing I tend to read the most on these forums (plus the "are my CFA scores passing?" threads)

I put the following together, based on what I could glean from last year's data:
  • In 2016, there were 19,145 applications to The United States Naval Academy.
  • Of those 19,145 applications, approximately 18,000 were assigned candidate numbers.
  • Of those 18,000 candidates, approximately 10,000 were triple-qualified (3Q’d).
  • Of those 10,000 3Q’d candidates, approximately 3,000 received nominations.
  • Of those 3,000 candidates, only 1,426 were extended Offers of Appointment.
  • Of those 1,426 appointments, 1,229 were enrolled on Induction Day.
The odds therefore were 1,229 in 19,145, or 6% admitted.
(From a glass-is-half-empty view, 94% of applicants were rejected).

USNA “tied” with Columbia and Yale as the 3rd hardest college to get into @ 6%.
(Tied for 2nd – Harvard and Stanford @ 5%).
(Tied for 1st – Alice Lloyd College and the Curtis Institute of Music @ 4%) <-- personally had never heard of either of these.
Click to expand...

I am assuming the estimate of 3Q Nominated Candidates is a % basis of the overall?

I would suggest that is a bit low... The total number of Nominations given to 2021 Applicants were 6,609, with some of these Noms being duplicates.

My experience with regards to the MOC Screening process is that this number has a very high chance of being qualified both Academically and Physically - with the only question being Medical. While they don't have the CFA results - most MOCs have a process that rewards those who are physically fit (via sports typically) and academically successful - but do not consider the DODMERB process. So even if there is a 25% fall-out rate for DODMERB, that would still result in a total population of 3Q with Nominations of around 5,000 - not the 3,000 you propose.

Which makes the likelihood of an Appointment of around 30% for candidates who are 3Q with Noms.
 
time2 said:
That 10+ yr old Rand study was done for WP and is often quoted out of context here.
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https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9905.html

Document Details
  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Web-Only
  • Pages: 4
  • DOI: 10.7249/RB9905
  • Document Number: RB-9905-OSD
  • Year: 2016
I am seeing a 2016 publishing date with 2011 data used for the USAFA assessment (page 1). My context was to show where I got the WCS % breakdown in a response to the OP's question. I also thought it might be a good read for insight into the Admissions process. I should've been clearer. I like the point you made about looking at the dates of the data used in order to gauge it's relevance. Also agree with you that some get appnt to one SA but TWE to another.
 
THParent said:
  • Of those 10,000 3Q’d candidates, approximately 3,000 received nominations.
  • Of those 3,000 candidates, only 1,426 were extended Offers of Appointment.
  • Of those 1,426 appointments, 1,229 were enrolled on Induction Day
Click to expand...

Number and statistics are easily manipulated to make them say what you want, but alot of variables and other factors. First , how many candidates never complete their application ? I see a lot on BGIS that complete the intial application and don't follow through. I believe USNA is pretty liberal in counting a "candidate", but until the application is complete, its a meaningless number. (100% of those that don't complete the application don't get in). Second, there is no relationship between number of 3Q candidates and nominations -that is two separate and distinct issues. In addition, keep in mind once 3Q and nominated, you are competing within your nomination p0ol, not the entire universe of 3Q candidates.

Bottom line - don't worry about statistics.. Get your application in, put your best foot forward, have a Plan B, and maybe you will get in, or maybe not. Not worth thinking about "odds:"
 
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