Because trend analysis gives some measure of hope no matter how unreliable, hope seems a Good Friday thing for today. In March 2017, the 2021 USNA appointment thread contained 28 reported appointments and this thread in March (to date, the morning of the 30th) there have only been 15 reported appointments/1 over half the number, the very unreliable conclusion is that there are a significant number of appointments coming over the next two weeks. So too in the 2021 appointment thread, there were six appointments reported between April 1 and 14 with 3 reported between April 15 and 30. Based on this historical trend of data that is wholly unreliable to predict this year's appointment flow, and assuming that 10% of all appointments are reported on a consistent basis year-over-year, the difference between March plus April appointments 2021 totaling 38 reported appointments as compared to March (to date) plus yet to be decided April 2018 totaling 15 reported appointments, there remains 380-150 = 230 appointments to be made in the next two weeks, 23 of which would be reported on the 2022 Appointment Thread. Given the trend analysis is based on one year, the data assumes consistent year to year reporting, the estimated 230 appointments over the next two weeks should be considered wholly based on conjecture and unreliable data. Yet, perhaps on this Good Friday (and I sincerely hope for all remaining CPRs it turns into a Great Friday!) hope is something to hold onto. Best wishes to all.
