There are way too many variables for anyone to know this. It also changes every year because the "stats" for other candidates changes every year. Someone with similar stats as you might of gotten a scholarship last year, but this year they might not. It all depends on the quality of the other candidates.
Worry about the things you can control, forget about the things you cannot. Put forth your best application, and then you get to wait and see what happens. It sucks I know, but trying to gauge what will happen or guess the future will only give you unneeded stress and frustration. The NROTC application process is your first taste of what it will be like in the Navy. Hurry up and wait and not knowing what will happen until right before it does (NSI, summer training, Service selection, Ship selection, post college training, etc) will be your new normal. Just do your best and then what to see what happens. It is tough, but it will be easier as time goes by.
Good luck!!