Why is the Class of 2022 so small?

M

mrfritz44

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I heard a rumor that the Class of 2022 is one of the smallest Academy classes in recent history, with class numbers around 1,160 appointees.

Question #1: I thought Trump approved a larger than average military budget in general this past year so if these rumors are true, do you have any thoughts on why the class is so small?

Question #2: With military pilot numbers dwindling due to the airline industry and other factors, will USAF make up the difference with ROTC pilots or some other means?
 
Answer #1: The amount of appointments offered is based on the Air Force projected need for officers in 5 years (when the class of 2022 will be graduated and moving to assignments). It has nothing to do with current budgets.

Answer #2: The pilot shortage is NOT a shortage of new pilots or those with a desire to be a pilot. The shortage is experienced pilots who will stay past their 10-year UPT commitment and fill staff and instructor slots. Currently the AF has about a 38% rate for pilots taking the bonus to stay in past 10 years. On paper they need about 65% to take it to maintain the required amount of officers. So, the shortage is of people who are 14-15 years ahead of the Class of 2022 in the pipeline and it is not something the AF can solve just by pumping out new pilots.

Stealth_81
 
A couple of years ago, one could have said that the class of 2020 was the smallest in years -- 1168 entered BCT.
To add to Stealth's comments, the Academy brings in the number of new cadets that will also meet and not exceed their 4400 cadet strength.
Just for reference for class numbers over the past five years:
- Class of 2017 = 1190
- Class of 2018 = 1206
- Class of 2019 = 1238
- Class of 2020 = 1168
- Class of 2021 = 1216
As you can see, 1160, which is the number someone mentioned is not that much smaller than most of the previous classes.
 
I talked to an admissions officer during my son’s appointee tour last week and they said this class was smaller because they had less attrition than usual from the previous classes. So they had to make this class smaller to keep total enrollment numbers within guidelines.
 
The issue of pilot shortage also has to do with through put in Undergraduate Pilot Trainging (UPT). There are several programs in the works to resolve this aspect of the "absorption" issue. That coupled with retintion rates along with "seats" available to expereince pilots is a long term fix. This issue will last until 2030 if the asumptions don't change....
 
skismuggs said:
USAFA class 2016 = 1,214 offered appointments, 1,035 in-processed and 812 graduated. This is a small class.
Click to expand...
I think the 812 graduating is a low number, but initial class sizes are smaller because attrition has declined. Some would argue that under the old school process - start 1500 and expect 1000 to graduate has changed and they do a much better job of screening the 1100 - 1200 they do admit. This means they are still producing the same number of O1's without starting with more in the funnel

Note how much the ALOs really stress - 'is this what you want and why' to weed out the 'this is really what my parents want'. Also, it is extremely difficult to leave any SA during basic training. Years ago, if you said you were leaving - you were separated from your classmates and out-processed quite rapidly. Now, they have much more counseling and discussion to make certain it's not just the 'having a bad day' decision.

Unfortunately, there is some type of scandal every few years which eliminates a larger group than normal from a class. As an example, '84 had the Physics cheating scandal which impacted quite a few.
 
Bravo52 said:
The issue of pilot shortage also has to do with through put in Undergraduate Pilot Trainging (UPT). There are several programs in the works to resolve this aspect of the "absorption" issue. That coupled with retintion rates along with "seats" available to expereince pilots is a long term fix. This issue will last until 2030 if the asumptions don't change....
Click to expand...
Retention of experience is the core issue in the pilot shortage. The AF decided to more or less ignore that and pump in a whole bunch of Lts to "grow its way out of the problem." They have trouble with that because the fleet is too small/old and they short staffed maintenance for the past decade, so there are not enough bases/planes to fly all those new students, nor a ton of flyable operational aircraft sitting around...
...and the pilots experienced enough to teach them are leaving for greener pastures (when the AF isn't paying them to leave, like it did about 5 years ago).
 
Good reply raimius. I was confused why everyone insisted that it was not a pilot recruiting problem, since I know that WAY more people are getting pilot slots thru AFROTC, and I've heard that USAFA basically asks cadets to sign up as pilots. So your explanation that the AF is sort of going the wrong way about it makes sense. They are picking more people for pilot slots (which is great news for me!) but that's not the best solution to the problem. Got it. Thanks!
 
It's a complicated problem. If you want the no holds barred version, BaseOps forums has about 150 pages on it.
 
It is a complicated problem for sure and all of those factors certainly play into the equation. It really is a math problem once you calculate in the 26 or so variables that have an impact on rated management. To the OPs question, assessing new pilots (historically) is an insignificant driver, so much so that it likely has little to do with the class size at the AFA. Being asked to "sign up as pilots" is a bit of a stretch since the biggest driver in the rated accessions game is getting through DODMERB. There are plenty of people who "want" to be fighter pilots...apparently not many want to "stay" fighter pilots. Besides, you gotta be tough to fly the heavies...just say'n.
 
Not postive, but I think Rotc commissions more officers than USAFA so smaller classes wouldnt be an issue. Beside Rotc, they ave OTS (whatever the Air Force version is called) to make up the difference. As mentioned before, there is no lack of people wanting to be pilot. There are only 3.5 UPT bases and you can increase the number of potential pilots tenfold and the same number of pilots will come out of UPT each year. AF Rotc cadets have to do Field Training during the summer before Junior year. During the last two years, pretty much 100% of each detachment got to go. This year, they are saying only 88% are going. Its not so much they are sending less cadets to field training, they have excess Rotc cadets
 
skismuggs said:
USAFA class 2016 = 1,214 offered appointments, 1,035 in-processed and 812 graduated. This is a small class.
Click to expand...
Just a tidbit of information, to provide perspective over the years...

The Class of 1983...admitted 1,516 on 25 June 1979 and graduated 956 on 1 June 1983.

That's an attrition rate of @ 37% which was not untypical of the time.

Steve
USAFA ALO
USAFA '83
 
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