OK, there are a lot of "nuansces" in the question of "what are my chances of becoming a fighter pilot out of the Academies?", so let me provide some perspective. Hopefully, this isn't too confusing.
First off, the folks NOT IN THE AF that have been telling you that 80% of the pilot slots in the AF are now goig to drones are giving you bad information. Your response to this the next time you hear it from non-AF folks should simply be to smile and say "thanks for the information". No need to get into a debate with them on this, as it will only tick them off.
Now, let's talk some "statistics". As others here have said, there are enough pilot slots that come out of the USAFA (about 500 / class, or 50% of the entire class is offered a pilot slot) that if you QUALIFY and want one, you're almost guaranteed to get one. But don't forget, this is the AIR FORCE, and we fly a LOT of more things than just fighters. We have to fill all those bomber, tanker, airlift, spec ops, and a host of other cockpits each year.
But as others have said,the AF has nearly double the amount of fighters as the Navy and Marine Corps COMBINED. Sounds like yor chances are better out of the gate, right? But hold on there, let's not forget that about 40% of the AF's fighters are in the Guard and Reserve, and you will NOT be going Guard or Reserve directly out of the AFA. (The Guard and Reserve have their own "hiring" process, and will send their own folks to UPT with a garaunteed fighter follow-on. Chances of getting those Guard / Reserve UPT slots are VERY slim and extremely competitive, with a lot of it based on who you know and having tons more qualifications than your competition.) So, only about 60% of the fighter slots the AF plans for each year goes to the Active force.
This brings me to my next point. For each AF UPT class of typically 28-30 Active force students (with a few Guard / Reserve folks mixed in), only about 6 of those Active folks (and usually 1 or 2 Guard/ Reserve folks) will get T-38s out of T-6 training (for fighters, bombers, and a few other special aircraft), with the rest getting T-1s (for heavies). That's about 15-20% per a typical class.
So, some conclusions:
- Your chances of getting a
Pilot slot out of one of the Academies is greater at the AFA (for obvious reasons). It is
MUCH more difficult to get an aviation slot out of the Naval Academy (for either Navy or Marines) as there aren't as many for each class.
- The majority of the Navy planes are fighters, with some helos and other platforms for other missions like sub-hunting, airlift, and a few other things. So,
IF you decide to go the Navy route, and are high enough in your Academy graduating class to get a aviation slot, you will have a better chance of getting a fighter than out of the AF's UPT pipeline. Marines? Well they have a LOT more non-fighter assets than the Navy, such as helos and CV-22s, so you still have to do pretty well in your pilot training class to get one (but the odds are still better than in the AF's UPT pipeline).
Bottom Line: Actually in the end, statistically the chances of becoming a fighter pilot out of either the AFA or the Naval Academy are pretty close. The issue
YOU should consider is "well, if I can't fly fighters, would I accept flying something else over a non-flying job (such as surface fleet or grunt)?" Ifthe answer is "Yes", then go AF. If the answer is "I don't really know", then do a little research on those "other" jobs, and see if you would be OK with them (becuase your odds of getting those other jobs are much more higher comnig out of the Naval Academy).
Clear as mud?
Bullet