You point out the variables that make it difficult to predict what it takes to get the commissioning path of preference (the choice ultimately is Uncle Sam's as earlier mentioned).
Yes, it is quite clear that the OML scores necessary to have the choice (when there are more cadets wanting AD than AD slots available) have been steadily rising.
The number of cadets commissioning for AD hasn't shrunk significantly if at all during this time either.
Which brings me to ask is it that we are getting higher scores because our cadets are truly more qualified OR because cadets are figuring out ways to raise their scores because they are gaming the system?
There are certain parts of the OML score that for better or worse are fixed - Battalion rank comes to mind here - there is only 1 #1 cadet (unlike valdictorians in HS).
Other parts are clearly through the effort of the cadet - PT scores (at least theoretically - I hope cadre don't count push ups generously to enhance their cadets' AD chances).
Other parts, though I wonder if with the word out the AD is harder to get, are being engineered to make cadets look better. GPA and ECs come to mind here. Downgrade to the easier major. Move tougher classes to the Senior year. Take a 5 hour/wk job to check a box. Play an intramural sport to check another.
I don't mean to disrespect the hard-working cadets here who have put in the hard work to be top quality candidates, but one has to wonder whether the scoring system is steering the effort that enhances the score.
Heck, we spend a lot of time here advising cadets on how to enhance their chances of AD... Maybe my recollection is bad, but when I came here 4 years ago, there wasn't as much information being passed around about the OML scoring system to the incoming classes.
That being said, as a cadet, you cannot ignore that the rules are out there and the competition is based upon those rules. Everyone plays the game. Some just watch the scoreboard more carefully.
I know you asked this question of Aglahad but forgive me my .02 cents.
Here is my unsubstantiated take on this.
Back in 2007 and prior the economy was purring along like a well tuned Mustang (Yep I like Mustangs). Our two wars were still going strong and deployments were a given. Recruitment, even ROTC was tough, even a scholarship was not enough to convince some. ROTC Battalions were giving out scholarships to qualified applicants with a pulse.
I am in no way saying the graduates from these classes are sub par officers today.
Starting in 2008 the economy started sounding more like an old rusty Studebaker, the stock market tanked taking a lot of college savings with it. The prospects for jobs in the civilian market started looking bleak. All of a sudden that Army ROTC Scholarship and a chance at employment right out of college started to look very attractive to a wider section of the population.
If you were to comb this forum back 5 or 6 years and look at the stats of those that received scholarships, you would probably see that they were lower then the stats of those being awarded today.
I believe the pool of applicants has grown a lot over the past 4 or 5 years, bringing along with it more applicants with higher stats.
These new cadets over the past few years having those higher stats have, in my opinion raised the bar in ROTC, resulting in higher GPA's. These same students are probably a bit more driven as a whole, they get involved in their school. My son was a Student Body Senator last year, he did it because it was interesting to him and he wanted to be involved (Political Science Major). The fact that it helps on his OMS was just an added benefit, but not the reason he ran for the position.
These higher stats for applicants were not just in their academics, with more applicants to choose from CC could now look harder at athletics, this I'm sure resulted in higher APFT scores. The Average APFT for my older sons MS1 class in 2008 was around a 240. The average APFT for my younger son's MS1 class was a 304.
When CC has a larger pool to select from they can be pickier, choose applicants with better academics and better athletic ability.
All of this I feel is one of the reasons that bottom number on the AD OML has been rising while the number of cadets selected for AD have stayed close to the same.
Add to all this that the max number used to be 101.5, it is now 102.5 since they are giving up to 1 point for engineerning and some STEM majors. I am sure this has raised the numbers a bit as well.
For this past years graduates, they were not doomed by the subjective APFT grading at LDAC since the tests are now done by the NCO's. APFT scores at LDAC saw a jump last year, adding points to the OMS across the board.
Well there is my nickles worth of opinion. I don't think there is any more gaming the system now then there has been, I just think there is a higher overall caliber of cadet. Now, if the economy keeps getting stronger and job opportunities rise for new college graduates, then we could very well see those numbers start to fall again.
EDIT: Just an added note, younger son did not pick Political Science for an easy major, I advised him to at least do a BS. This kid really loves Politics. Only High School Freshman I know that picked Nixon's Autobiography as his reading selection for his term paper, read every president's after Nixon as well. His favorite to date were the books on Jefferson and Adams. His goal, a Masters in Economics and Law School, we'll see.