Are you asking about SFT selection? My assumption is since you are asking for non-rated competition overall, it is for SFT and not for career selection.
If I am correct, than here is the deal, or what it has been for a couple of yrs.
For SFT they break it down into 4 groups:
TECH/rated, TECH/non-rated, NON-TECH/rated, NON-TECH/non-rated.
I ranked it out by highest to lowest selection. TECH/non-rated and NON-TECH/rated impo have historically had the same rate or close to it.
What will come down to it is your "package". that includes:
CoC ranking
AFOQT
GPA
PFT
If your gpa is 2.5 than your chances will diminish greatly, because the avg cgpa is 3.0/3.1 for non-tech.
If your PFT is 85 than again, your chances will drop.
If your AFOQT is in the tank, than it is the same as what I just said about the other 2.
If your CoC, biggest portion of the package is the bottom of the barrel, than see above.
You will compete nationally.
Now, for the last part of your post...needs for a nuclear chemist. That too plays into part of the selection. There have been years where the "needs" of Big Blue played into selection. Many moons ago, I recall the fact that although they had an overall selection rate of 63%, 100% of cadets majoring in Nursing were selected, regardless of their gpa, PFT, AFOQT scores (as long as they passed). Several moons later they needed CEs and they too had a 100% selection rate. Followed several moons later that the non-tech/rated had a higher selection rate than tech/non-rated because they were short on pilots.
Point being, nobody on this forum knows for sure what the needs of the AF will be in 2023. If they did, they are on the "inside" and would not risk their career by stating so openly on a social media forum.
Move forward and max the PFT. Study for the AFOQT and hit it out of the ball park. Get your gpa over a 3.0, if there keep it.
Most importantly, since this only the beginning of your yr., ask to meet with your PMS advisor or the CoC. Discuss where your weaknesses are currently and how "THEY" would advise you to improve them. They will see it as being proactive. Their job is to create terrific officers. That is their goal. That is something they are reviewed on for their own career.
~~ They are ADAF, and many are up for promotion. Part of their OPR/OER will be the success of that det. IE let's say the national SFT selection rate is 90%, but yours is 100%. That is a feather in their cap. The cadre will have that as a bullet point in their OPR/OERs.
It is to their advantage to make you the most competitive, for you, for them and for the AF. They can only do that if you ask for guidance.
Good luck and thank you for wanting to defend this great nation.
