A couple of things.
1. Although the AF is downsizing the fact is they expect to have a pilot shortage due to airlines finally hiring again compared to the last 12-13 years. This works in your favor.
2. When you apply for rated you have to be willing to also take CSO, RPA and ABM. You can't now back out because you got ABM and decide yo would rather be non-rated and try later on once ADAF.
There was a cadet that went to the supplemental board the yr DS commissioned in 12. He got RPAs. As much as UPT is undermanned, RPA is too, maybe even more.
This works in the AF's favor because as I said you have to accept any rated. Gone are the days you can say pilot only.
The AF is giving or was at least gave out ABM/CSO scholarships in the past few years. That should tell you at least a yr or two agom AFPC decided they were short there too. I don't know how the cuts are impacting them, but if they are not on the RIF list you need to place this career field option into the equation. Remember, CSO school is about a yr., add in IFS, SERE, water survival, FTU, it can take two yrs before you are MQ. Do 2 yrs operational, and you are at the same 4 yr marker as the non-rated before you meet the UPT board. So take the time and research all of the rated positions they canon assigned you to before you apply for the supplemental, because it is likely either way if you don't get UPT it will be about 4 years before you have the ability to go to UPT.
~ our friends's DS applied OCS, commissioned in Sept. He was given a CSO slot and was told for his board (JULY 2012) that no pilot slots were given because they filled the numbers needed. You will be going with supplemental, which goes after the 300s and after OCS summer.
~~~Just putting it out there that there will be two rated boards, AFROTC and OCS.
Lastly there is a pipeline problem occurring right now at UPT and CSO. Class dates are being backed up by months. There is a thread on the AFA forum discussing this. Laughlin and Vance are definetly backing up. Dec start class is beginning next week. Our friend at p'cola was to start in Dec., than Jan., than Feb., now the start is March.
I agree with Nick talk to the det., but don't be shocked if they can't give you guidance since right now they don't know what this yr rate will be. Nick and our DSs yr it was close to 100%. They probably will have a better insight when the 300's are released next 6-9 weeks.
~~~If I recall correctly this is the first yr PCSM 2.0 will be used. The amount of flight hours matter a lot more now. Do you have any flight hours at all?
Again, a reason why not they may not be able to give you any insight until the board results are released to see the differentiate from the old PCSM to the new.
Nick is also correct the physical opens up slots. This exam is an FAA Flight Class 1 physical. AFROTC will fly you out to Wright Pat for a 3 day physical. Everything from eyes, ears, dental to EKGs will be performed. Waivers for the DoDMERB exam will feel like a cake walk compared to this exam. If you have any qualms get your medical records in order now.
Hope this helps by giving you even more insight than Nick has given you.