Any ROO that tells you to expect a 4-year is selling something that is never a guarantee and quite outside of his purview. When I was a PMS, if my ROO stated something like that to an applicant (and I found out), we'd have a one-way discussion about his role and responsibility to the Army and applicants. That sets a false expectation and will be a letdown when it is not a 4-year. Now that has potentially alienated an entire family from the Army and the university I'm sitting at. With those kinds of experiences in your kit box, you're highly competitive. Odds are a 3-year AD.
I'll be quite honest here...I'm not a fan of 4-year scholarships. It's an investment in an 18-year-old kid that has not had any real leadership assessment. The Army has more 4-year scholarship recipients flake out than any other population (per capita). I much prefer the 3-year Advanced Designee Scholarship. I normally had the ability on campus to turn that into a 3.5-year scholarship. 4-year is a very high-risk investment for the Army, that's why there are not many awarded.
I would tell the kids I interviewed if I believed they were competitive. I'd qualify it as either competitive or highly competitive. The PMS interview carries more weight than your GPA, extracurricular, or standardized test scores. I was often called or texted by RMID or guys sitting on the scholarship board asking me about my comments. If I did not believe the kid would be a successful Cadet, I would put in the comments words to the effect of: "Do not award this applicant a scholarship" or "I do not believe they will be a successful Cadet, do not select." - if I wrote that in the comments, your application was dead. I would also just give your interview 0 discretionary points. That's also a killer.
Believe it or not, I also had kids come into my office and say they didn't want a scholarship, their dad/mom was making them be there. I'd make sure those kids got 0 points from me and we'd chat for about 20 minutes about whatever while dad/mom waited in the lobby area. I'd make sure to say "good luck" on their way out the door so dad/mom could hear positivity come from me. Trapping someone who doesn't want to be there is incredibly unfair to everyone. (I never had a problem making my commissioning mission).
Beyond all that, you don't know what is going to come out on the backside without knowing the attrition model related to requirements that were run by the analysts. There are several personnel levers behind the scenes that PMSes and ROTC Brigade Commanders do not see (I saw it when I was at HRC because these guys who ran the models for force management and manning worked in the cubicles next to me). They're running the models based on decades of data that inform how many students are needed to enroll in class, how many need to be on 4-year, and 3-year scholarships, how many Minuteman Scholarships, number of ARNG SMP, USAR SMP, etc. If I remember correctly, less than 50% of the total Cadet Command commissioning mission should be on any type of Cadet Command scholarship! (for some reason 40% sounds correct).
