AROTC Class of 2014 Branching

it appears that nurses took a major hit as well.
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The practical difference there of course as that we currently run a shortage of nurses in the US, and import them from many countries around the world (esp. Philippines) and therefore each and every Nurse graduate will have several job offers waiting. Not at all the case with the Biology, or History, or Business major who hasn't been job-networking over the past two years, and is scrambling to catch up now that they are referred RD. You can't go back in time and get that job internship after junior year that usually is the extended interview for a full time job.
 
It's interesting how the desire of going AD changes throughout the years. I was having a conversation with my father the other day about ROTC and we reflected on when I first joined in 2007ish. After talking to him about branching then he couldn't believe that infantry was one of the most popular branches (Vietnam Era for HS and college). He also said when he was in college the ROTC cadets all practically had to go AD and there was no option for reserves like I chose. Which in his mind he thought it was a steal of a deal for me to get my school paid for then have the option to go reserves. Obviously many people on here much prefer the prospects of AD with this down economy but it was just thought-provoking to see the cyclical trend ROTC goes through as the years pass.

For the guys who got RD, it's not the end of the world. Hopefully you worked hard for a degree that is marketable and don't forget your unit is a great place to network because many many of the enlisted guys and obviously officers also have degrees and can help you network to land a job. You can volunteer for mobilizations and if another way sparks up a few years down the road they may open the RD to AD transfer again if you so desire.
 
OK, then we have:

Cadets wanting AD who were referred/forced RD
FY10: 15%
FY11: 18%
FY12: 25%
FY13: unknown
FY14: 33%

That's actually less of a surprise, or change than I had thought, seeing the FY12 numbers for the first time. It's almost linear, with the biggest change occurring b/w FY11 and FY12. I completely missed that FY12 change at the time. That should have been the loud warning whistle.

I wonder what the numbers will be in a continued "Peace Time" force sustainment? Perhaps ROTC will reduce its overall Accessions Mission keeping a 67% AD 33% RD mix, or will keep the same Mission but increasingly supply the Reserve Component with cadets at the expense of AD, to something like 50% AD and 50% RD.

This ties in somewhat with a shift I have sensed in the overall purpose and use of the RD component from an emergency component to be used rarely, only in rapid buildup, to a force that will be routinely used with greater frequency to sustain forces in peacetime missions. What we now think of as "Reserves" might become actually something more like "substitute teacher", where the Reserves are used not as emergency but as routine and regular gap fillers. This means a Reservist might expect to be deployed a few times during the eight year commitment, even during peacetime.

What do you all think about the nature of the future utilization of the Army Reserves? If it is as I sense, I think a lot of those disappointed about not getting AD will get a significant amount of AD anyway, even in peacetime.

If you look at the numbers carefully, eliminating nursing and Educational Delay numbers, right now they are commissioning a 50/50 ratio RD/AD where as in FY2012 it was 44/56 RD/AD. We're already there.
 
The practical difference there of course as that we currently run a shortage of nurses in the US, and import them from many countries around the world (esp. Philippines) and therefore each and every Nurse graduate will have several job offers waiting. Not at all the case with the Biology, or History, or Business major who hasn't been job-networking over the past two years, and is scrambling to catch up now that they are referred RD. You can't go back in time and get that job internship after junior year that usually is the extended interview for a full time job.

Unfortunately we have an artificial shortage. Hospitals keep staffing low to maximize profit and since it takes an average of 50k-75k to train a brand new nurse it is NOT easy to land a job right out of school. Get a 1-2 years of acute care experience nowadays and you're golden for anywhere in the US. Its getting that initial training that is hard, but with enough networking you should find a job in 1-2 months.

Overall you are correct though, if I was forced RD as a nurse I wouldn't be shaking in my boots. Everything just won't be handed to you now.
 
The number for FY13 was 955/3880 eligible who were referred RD. That's about 25%. I have the slide deck. If someone is willing to upload it and wants to shoot me their email I'll send it off. I can't remember where I got it from and can't find it online.
 
Those numbers have included SMC cadets in the briefings from past years. There's something about SMC cadets directed to AD, but I'm not entirely sure who that encompasses. Without the by-name OML I don't think you could pin down the exact number. I will tell you that it pissed a lot of my peers off looking through last year's OML and seeing SMC Cadets like ten names from the bottom who got AD. We're talking scores in like the low 60's/high 50's. But hey, I paid to wear a silly costume for four years and my PMS and I root for the same football team, so why not?

Not that the number of SMC cadets requesting AD varies that much year to year, but it would be interesting to know the net effect on the SMC's guaranteed AD slots on the overall statistics.

If SMC cadets make up 500 of those AD slots, it certainly does change the ratio of Non-SMC cadets forced to RD over the slots available.

It definitely has upped the competition at the Non-SMCs for getting AD.

I'm probably going to get myself chewed out here, but if they are raising the standards on the Non-SMC cadets for AD, perhaps some of the commandants at the SMCs might consider raising their expectation of cadets (i.e. force some more of their lower ranked to RD) to keep the overall quality of the ROTC commissioning class constant. I know it is difficult for those in charge at SMCs to say that their cadets are not "AD material", but "AD material" is a shifting definition, given the increased selectivity in recent years...

Not trying to start a food fight, but I cannot imagine that ALL of the SMC graduates are somehow that much better officer material than some of the cadets now being referred to RD. I'd be curious to find out from the SMC crowd how many of their cadets actually are kept out of AD by their commandants (not for flunking LDAC or DoDMERB issues). Is that something they need to look at going forward, as having an increase of (caused by more selectivity by CC) below average officers has a long-term negative impact on the reputation of an institution.
 
Unfortunately we have an artificial shortage. Hospitals keep staffing low to maximize profit and since it takes an average of 50k-75k to train a brand new nurse it is NOT easy to land a job right out of school. Get a 1-2 years of acute care experience nowadays and you're golden for anywhere in the US. Its getting that initial training that is hard, but with enough networking you should find a job in 1-2 months.

I can tell you that I was looking all over SoCal for *entry level* nursing positions for my daughter just in case she was chosen for Reserves and I didn't find ONE opening. As Aglahad stated, they all want a minimum of 1 year and mostly 3 years of experience for the openings I saw.
 
Not trying to start a food fight, but I cannot imagine that ALL of the SMC graduates are somehow that much better officer material than some of the cadets now being referred to RD. I'd be curious to find out from the SMC crowd how many of their cadets actually are kept out of AD by their commandants (not for flunking LDAC or DoDMERB issues).

They aren't better at all, some really good and some completely abysmal in my experience. Just like any other school.

In past years I asked some SMC peers about PMSs keeping guys out of AD and they said it was rare unless the kid was a blatant problem, incompetent or a screw up. I imagine a lot of the PMSs don't want to be the guy/gal to decide a kid's career. Keep in mind this was 2 years ago and the recommendation trend could have changed.
 
I can tell you that I was looking all over SoCal for *entry level* nursing positions for my daughter just in case she was chosen for Reserves and I didn't find ONE opening. As Aglahad stated, they all want a minimum of 1 year and mostly 3 years of experience for the openings I saw.

The California market is one of the hardest to get into but pays very well even with the cost of living.

It's not impossible to get a job as a new grad but it isn't easy. The job for my first interview (new grad position) had 30 applications in one night. Only one slot was open.

The advantage of civilian nursing is you can start out in any specialty you want, the Army forces you to start at the med-surg/standard floor.
 
They aren't better at all, some really good and some completely abysmal in my experience. Just like any other school.

In past years I asked some SMC peers about PMSs keeping guys out of AD and they said it was rare unless the kid was a blatant problem, incompetent or a screw up. I imagine a lot of the PMSs don't want to be the guy/gal to decide a kid's career. Keep in mind this was 2 years ago and the recommendation trend could have changed.

Ultimately, once they commission, the slower speed officers decide their own career. Nothing the PMS can do after graduation about that (Ring knocking only goes so far). The problem here is that the PMS is deciding the SMC's reputation by letting the marginal cadet go AD.

And the AD Army is a less competitive place as a result. Perhaps this will have the unintended consequence of improving the RD component... Looking on the bright side here...
 
When a SMC Cadet and Green to Gold Cadet doesn't make the AD cut line and still receives AD it doesn't push other Cadets from active duty, there is additional active duty allocations given to allow those Cadets to go active. However, you have to be SMC or Green to Gold ADO the rest of the cadets have to make the cut.
 
Ultimately, once they commission, the slower speed officers decide their own career. Nothing the PMS can do after graduation about that (Ring knocking only goes so far). The problem here is that the PMS is deciding the SMC's reputation by letting the marginal cadet go AD.

And the AD Army is a less competitive place as a result. Perhaps this will have the unintended consequence of improving the RD component... Looking on the bright side here...

I think the ebb and flow goes both ways. When I was going AD, some of the cadets I most respected (and who I thought were very good leaders) who were older than me chose to go RD. In my experience so far I have only met 1 forced RD officer, the rest of them were already AD or chose RD for career purposes. Obviously this might change but I mention it to show I haven't met any bitter, perceived incompetent guys who wanted AD. On the flipside I know many cadets who looked decent on paper but were terrible people and leaders that ended up branching AD. Unfortunately OML can only determine so much.

In short both RD and AD have good and bad officers and I don't think the new OML cutoffs will drastically change that.
 
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OK, then we have:

Cadets wanting AD who were referred/forced RD
FY10: 15%
FY11: 18%
FY12: 25%
FY13: unknown
FY14: 33%

That's actually less of a surprise, or change than I had thought, seeing the FY12 numbers for the first time. It's almost linear, with the biggest change occurring b/w FY11 and FY12. I completely missed that FY12 change at the time. That should have been the loud warning whistle.

I wonder what the numbers will be in a continued "Peace Time" force sustainment? Perhaps ROTC will reduce its overall Accessions Mission keeping a 67% AD 33% RD mix, or will keep the same Mission but increasingly supply the Reserve Component with cadets at the expense of AD, to something like 50% AD and 50% RD.

This ties in somewhat with a shift I have sensed in the overall purpose and use of the RD component from an emergency component to be used rarely, only in rapid buildup, to a force that will be routinely used with greater frequency to sustain forces in peacetime missions. What we now think of as "Reserves" might become actually something more like "substitute teacher", where the Reserves are used not as emergency but as routine and regular gap fillers. This means a Reservist might expect to be deployed a few times during the eight year commitment, even during peacetime.

What do you all think about the nature of the future utilization of the Army Reserves? If it is as I sense, I think a lot of those disappointed about not getting AD will get a significant amount of AD anyway, even in peacetime.

I've read some article link to by RealClearDefense where the Chiefs discuss your perception as being one way they may have to go with the sequester as a way to reduce costs. Increase the Reserves and Deploy them more often. I didn't get a sense from the articles that they had made a final decision, but it does appear that they will at least need to increase the Reserve officer component as a way to "employ" "excess" ROTC grads during the drawdown.
 
When a SMC Cadet and Green to Gold Cadet doesn't make the AD cut line and still receives AD it doesn't push other Cadets from active duty, there is additional active duty allocations given to allow those Cadets to go active. However, you have to be SMC or Green to Gold ADO the rest of the cadets have to make the cut.

Not correct. There are not additional active duty allocations given for SMC cadets.

The commissioning class for any given FY is determined and from that first SA graduates are given their AD commissions, followed by G2G and SMC cadets requesting AD. They cannot change the budget or create jobs because of changes in SMC requests for AD.

Once all of these "guaranteed" AD commissions are carved out, they move onto ROTC cadets from Non-SMCs.

In years past, they just went down the OML for these Non-SMC cadets and got to the number they needed and that was that.

This year, they added the special BrADSO programs for certain degrees and branches.

It is my understanding that the top 10% still get their 1st choice of branch (subject to availability of course), so these cadets are assigned branches, subtracting from the total commission count and the specific branch counts those numbers for the top 10%.

From there, the next guarantee is for these special BrADSOs. For each Branch with these BrADSOs, they start from the top of the OML and fill those Branches until they either run out of Branch allocations or run out of ADSO candidates. This is done by OML. Many of these special BrADSOs would have been "above the line" (without this program). Others would not have made the AD cutoff line.

Once CC has processed all of these special BrADSOs, they continue with the remaining slots until the FY's allocation of AD commissions has been filled.

To the degree that these special BrADSOs would have otherwise fallen below the AD cutoff line, they displace on a 1-for-1 basis cadets not using special BrADSOs and thus raise the AD cutoff line by that many cadets.

How many of these "below the line" cadets using special BrADSOs there are as well as the number of G2G or SMC cadets who would have fallen below the line is clearly not being publicized.

There isn't much good fruit to fall from that tree of knowledge. Those benefiting from their G2G, SMC, or special BrADSO situation would only feel less than accomplished with this knowledge. Likewise those others who might have made it without these other commissioning priorities will only feel bad about how they may have been "cheated" by priority changes that are beyond their control by cadets who they "outscored" (if that is truly a measure of cadet quality - something that is widely debated).

Bottom line is that "It is what it is." The ROTC program came without any guarantees. Expectations are what you make of them. If you expected AD and received RD, your commission is beyond your control but your attitude towards that commission is entirely within your control.

I salute those who tried valiantly, but came up short of their goal. They are to be credited with working hard and accepting the decision of those above them. Many of their graduating peers (outside of ROTC) have not learned these difficult lessons and more than likely find it at some point in their career. To this end, they are ahead in life.

Congratulations to all. Make the best of the commission/branch bestowed upon you. Understand that this is just one of many boards you will face in your career, just like the Scholarship board many of you faced way back in time. Take a deep breath and start preparing for the next board. And enjoy your work. If you aren't, it is probably time you take the first available exit.
 
^ Great Post

I would add only one comment/observation.

I think it would have been a much better idea for Cadet Command to begin this new BRADSO Program with the new class entering ROTC instead of starting with this years graduating class.

Some have called it "Gaming the System" in regard to the "Old Process". Cadets taking what is perceived as easier majors to get a better GPA and increase their OML score. The issue is that these were the rules layed out and I agree that they were not the best rules, but the rules in any case. Now the rules change, retroactive.

While there won't be many cadets that will be changing majors for the class of 2015, many of these cadets may have selected a different major if they had known about this new system of branching, again they were playing by the rules they were told when they joined.

My fear is that new cadets joining ROTC now or in the future will see this program as a way to still get active duty while majoring in a STEM major, not a bad thing by any means. My fear is that CC may decide in the future to change things again, even back to the original model, now these cadets will be left out in the cold.

Making a change is fine, doing it retroactive not so much.

With the listed requirement being only that the cadet has to have a Min. 2.75, ADSO, and list the branch as their 1st choice does not seem to be enough, at least to some. A cadet we know had the required 2.75 and approved major, they barely passed the APFT, had the lowest LDAC score and still able to pass, had the minimum MS GPA and was last on the battalion OML. The cadet changed their mind from NG to AD and took advantage of the new BRADSO Program. I certainly hope they take more into consideration in the future.

Again Goaliedad, that was one of the best explaniations about the process I've seen posted.
 
^ Great Post

I would add only one comment/observation.

I think it would have been a much better idea for Cadet Command to begin this new BRADSO Program with the new class entering ROTC instead of starting with this years graduating class.

Some have called it "Gaming the System" in regard to the "Old Process". Cadets taking what is perceived as easier majors to get a better GPA and increase their OML score. The issue is that these were the rules layed out and I agree that they were not the best rules, but the rules in any case. Now the rules change, retroactive.

While there won't be many cadets that will be changing majors for the class of 2015, many of these cadets may have selected a different major if they had known about this new system of branching, again they were playing by the rules they were told when they joined.

My fear is that new cadets joining ROTC now or in the future will see this program as a way to still get active duty while majoring in a STEM major, not a bad thing by any means. My fear is that CC may decide in the future to change things again, even back to the original model, now these cadets will be left out in the cold.

Making a change is fine, doing it retroactive not so much.

With the listed requirement being only that the cadet has to have a Min. 2.75, ADSO, and list the branch as their 1st choice does not seem to be enough, at least to some. A cadet we know had the required 2.75 and approved major, they barely passed the APFT, had the lowest LDAC score and still able to pass, had the minimum MS GPA and was last on the battalion OML. The cadet changed their mind from NG to AD and took advantage of the new BRADSO Program. I certainly hope they take more into consideration in the future.

Again Goaliedad, that was one of the best explaniations about the process I've seen posted.

I agree there should be more consideration into other aspects of the cadet's resume besides an in-demand STEM major. A mech engineer cadet who got a 2.76 GPA with a 180 PT score, low low S at LDAC and bottom of the barrel PMS ranking is probably not a good investment for AD.

That being said the BRADSO program was really needed in some capacity to even the playing field.
 
I agree there should be more consideration into other aspects of the cadet's resume besides an in-demand STEM major. A mech engineer cadet who got a 2.76 GPA with a 180 PT score, low low S at LDAC and bottom of the barrel PMS ranking is probably not a good investment for AD.

That being said the BRADSO program was really needed in some capacity to even the playing field.

And it wasn't just STEM majors. IIRC a Business degree was eligible for one of the BrADSOs.

And while CC thinks it has successfully blocked some of the current class' gaming of the system, I suspect that there are MSII cadets who are signing up for Accounting 101 for the Spring term as we discuss this...
 
But Mabry, doesn't every freshman ore med get into med school? :wink:

Trust me, I hate being the negative nancy and the Debbie downer of the Ed delays. However I'm a realist. People (including over zealous parents) pump up their kids to be physicians, lawyers, etc and want to use the military to fund their pursuits via ROTC. 71 cadets received an Ed delay...71. Of those maybe 60 will finish.

With the exception of nurses and dieticians, ROTC isn't built to facilitate this training. I've seen too many pissed off premed chemical and quartermaster officers. It's just a big pet peeve of mine. 71 folks....71.
 
So with all this said, and as it appears it is a lot tougher for the general ed. degree to get AD (not impossible), do you think ROTC enrollment will decline or will cadets be satisfied with reserves? Will the enrollment at SMC's increase as a way to get AD?
 
I think there is a cap for the SMCs for contracts in AROTC. I posted up here this article last year. I guess not all the SMC cadets make the cut. I would think the same is going on at the other SMCs. Nothing is guaranteed.

http://www.norwichguidon.com/campus-news/for-some-military-dreams-face-an-end-1.2837210?pagereq=2


"We have a cap of 77 kids that we are allowed to contract within the Army (ROTC department at NU),” Smith said. “Right now, for example, we have more cadets who are qualified to contract than we are physically able to contract.” “(It is) really frustrating right now because we have a lot of great students who we would love to contract and might not be able to because of medical conditions or civil convictions,” Esquivel said."
 
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