So many variables... Does it really cost the taxpayer $400,000 for a USNA education, or is that estimated value? Should the monthly stipend be included? After all, it is compensation, not scholarship money. Medical costs---what's the estimated value vs the real dollar cost to taxpayers? What about taxpayer subsidies given to civilian colleges? Is that cost added to the value of an ROTC education in these reports? After all, that is still a real cost to the taxpayer. How many civilian colleges have a yard patrol?
Can't speak for USNA, but below is a quote from the USAFA website.
https://www.academyadmissions.com/commitment/
"An Academy education is valued at more than $416,000, yet we offer it at no cost to our cadets. All that is required in return is your commitment to serve as an officer in the Air Force."
It doesn't matter how many variables there are if it is blatantly clear that the academies are far more expensive than OCS. Sure, the true cost of sending a person to the academy might be $416,000 +/- $100,000. It still doesn't matter. OCS is 32x cheaper, barely costing over $10,000 to produce one graduate. Unless you are arguing that the cost of producing a service academy graduate is $416,000 +/- $406,000, then there is no overlap between the costs of these two commissioning sources. OCS is cheaper every single time, and because that is the case, it does not matter if I cannot give you an exact true cost of sending someone to a service academy.
Your valuation of OCS is totally an apples to Antifreeze comparison. Some time ago when something like this ended up in print, the onion was peeled back a bit and the ack of comparability was astonishing. The Service Academy cost was the TOTAL PAYROLL FACILITY cost associated with USNA and the Naval Station since (of course), they were all there to support the Naval Academy. On the other hand, the OCS cost was just the cost of the actual OCS payroll and costs that could be shown to be OCS like King Hall itself. This leaves out lots of expenses that are not directly attributable to OCS such as Ney Hall (dining), the gym, pool, medical facilities, etc which are shared with the other activities in Newport. Admissions for USNA are included in the USNA cost while Admissions for OCS are part of Navy Recruiting Command and not easily connected. Of course, OCS is cheaper, it is twelve weeks as opposed to four years.
By the way, your comment that retention is lower is based on one sentence in an article with zero backup. I've seen many other analysis in the past that conflict with this which makes it appear that there is some cherry picked data. A fairly substantial number of officers are commissioned via the LDO program and they have very high retention rates - largely because they are much closer to retirement. Go ahead and give side by side specifics for OCS, ROTC and USNA and you'll see a different result. Also, in the vein of cherrypicking, there is a big difference between looking at 7 or 8 yrs after commissioning versus how many stay to 20 and beyond between USNA, OCS and ROTC.
It's interesting that you critique me for using an article that has "zero backup", yet you provide "zero backup" behind any of these statements.
Can't find any recent studies, but here's a quote from a study that was done in 2004 titled "An Analysis of the Effect of Commissioning Sources on Retention and Promotion of US Army Officers"
"We conclude that Academy graduates have the lowest retention rates, whereas OCS graduates have the highest
retention rates. Among male officers, retention rates are higher for ROTC graduates than for those with Direct Appointments;
among female officers retention rates are higher for Direct Appointments than ROTC graduates. The Promotion to O-4 Model
indicates that the effect of commissioning source is different within gender, race and marital status groups. The results of the
promotion to O-5 model contrasts with those of the O-4 models. Academy graduates are more likely to be promoted to
Lieutenant Colonel than those from other sources, followed by ROTC graduates and then Direct Appointments."
I guess it could be argued that a higher O-5 promotion rate is an indication that service academy grads that do stay in are performing better. But this might be mainly due to the fact that a person who is capable of gaining admission into a service academy is on average going to be better than a person who is capable of getting into ROTC/OCS. Thus, it is unclear if the service academy experience is causing officers to perform better during their field grade time, or if it is simply due to the average person who can get into a service academy being more qualified to be an officer than those who can only get into ROTC/OCS.
Would be interesting to see a more in-depth study that accounts for all of these variables.