Couple of random thoughts on the waitlist:
-USCG is short members overall and in a bit of a recruiting crisis like the other armed services, they need folks.
-Retention numbers have fallen slightly mainly due to the good economy and plenty of civilian opportunities, again they need folks. Not sure what the retention rate of USCGA grads is at the 5 year mark, but they do have many options in the current economy.
-First year of a new Superintendent so he could see things differently with regard to waitlist and yield, unknown variable.
-There are always some DORs (Drop on Request) during swab summer and some injuries that cannot be rehabbed in time so they expect loses to the class - how they compensate for that is a balancing act. Some still pending DOBMER medical waivers will be denied and that will create a few slots if they want to fill them.
-I hear they don't rank the waitlist, but look for certain missing parts so to speak. For example, if they are low Electrical Engineering majors, they may go to those kids first. Or it they have no one yet from the Dakotas, and there is one on the waitlist, that may be the ticket. No one really knows.
-I don't think athletics will be much of a differentiator, they have had their pick of athletes from EA and RA, plus they already have current rising 3/c, 2/c, and 1/c to fill the teams. My guess is if they had to have you for their team, you would have been admitted in EA or RA.
-When you talk to some Ensigns, they say some of the large cutters WMSL are almost over-staffed. While others on medium and small boats are under-staffed. There were very few land jobs this year, and flight stayed about the same at billet night meaning the fleet needs afloat still drive the staffing and recruiting.
-Kids change their mind, and do so quickly and often. What seemed like the perfect college in October may be different in April. Someone may fall in love at Senior Prom. Just on probability alone, some of the current admitted kids will drop USCGA and choose other schools.
Finally, from USCGAs side of this, they have a target number in total admits, majors admitted, etc., the waitlist gives them a small group of qualified applicants to pick from at will to fill a need. As time runs short, it is reasonable to assume if they pull from the wait list they will look for kids on the waitlist who are 100% ready to go as they don't have time for extended medical opinions or back and forth with doctors on waivers or for kids to get in shape for Swab summer that submitted a low PFE score, etc. If you have a better PFE score or recently got a medical waiver approved, I would email that to your AO and make 100% sure they know about it, and they know you are fully qualified and ready to go on short notice.
Good luck!