Flieger,
I agree that the Falcon Foundation is not for everyone. I fully understand what you are saying in that the individual needs to research all the options, weigh the pros and cons, and then chose the path they want to walk.
You are right in that an appointment may be "lost" due to a fatal error. A freak accident may disqualify someone medically.
There are other benefits though. This is where "just a mom" is correct. A Falcon can receive his/her appointment and turn it down. They incur the cost of the scholarship ($5k) but they have 30+ credit hours that they can transfer to another university. This means they can look at a 2 and 3-year scholarships also.
I know you said you went to NWP. That is a very good program with great results. However, the other four Falcon schools are MILITARY junior colleges. The Falcon at one of these gets to "test drive" a military school before they go off to the USAFA. I had a Falcon who came to NMMI last August, experienced our military environment, packed his stuff and went home. He used an AFROTC scholarship to continue his education (at least that's what he told me). I consider that a "sucess story" and I wish him the best. He found out early (and at no cost to the taxpayer) that the AFA wasn't for him.
My last point is that all Falcons are PPQ. If a person wants to fly - the Falcon program a great way to get a cockpit. Unlike you I am not an ALO (it would be a conflict of interest to represent both the USAF and the candidate I'm paid to support). I don't have all the current data or "big picture" info. But, if you truly believe a person has a better chance for a flight slot out of ROCT vs. AFA please PM me or call. I never consider myself too old to learn.
V/R - Don