I have stated this ad nauseum, it is great to go in with a plan, but just like applying for the AFA it is important to have a back up. The AFA will give you the best shot for becoming a pilot, but many things can happen between now and 5 yrs from now when you would pin on your wings.
Many kids go in and say they want to fly fighters and the reality is only a very select few will get them, probably about 10-15% from the starting class. If you only want fighters and get them, you have truly beaten the odds. You need to ask yourself if you will be okay wearing a flight suit and flying a computer screen...or a heavy. Getting into the SA is only the 1st step of a very long path, for example, g forbid you get injured, you may get medically dq from flying, what will you do then?
As far as ROTC you compete on a national level and your Commander has a hand in the decision, he/she will rack and stack the cadets which will be seen through their comments that go to the board. Along with the commanders rec your ROTC career, gpa, medical clearance and AFOQT will be included. Your packet will go up against a board similar to ROTC scholarship, a national level. Speak to your det commander and cadets that are there, by Feb/Mar both Jrs and Srs know their future career path. At DS's college only 1 cadet in the past 5 yrs did not get a pilot slot, but the rule of thumb at his det is: as long as you have a 3.2+ and are active in the det you will get it. DS is at a det that is considered large (cadets from smaller colleges are sent there for Lab) They typically have 5-6 cadets every yr that get UPT.
I would say that from an outsiders view point, it would be more beneficial to attend a university that has ROTC on campus. The reason why is based on face time. Your ROTC career is similar to AFA, you will want a "job". If they can't connect the face or they feel that you can't be there for meetings and the ROTC det., they will most likely skip your name and give it to someone else that can be there by just walking from their dorm. Getting a job in the ROTC det is very competitive, you don't just get one because it is your time. You actually apply for jobs and move up the ranks. Additionally ROTC dets typically do community service, some of it is volunteer, some is mandatory...FACE TIME! Then there is the additional fact that the cadets have leadership, you want them to know you too. The det commander is removed and rely upon the cadet commander for input to a point..."they are a nice enough guy, but I really don't know them" will not help in getting a leadership position. ROTC you get to be the "avg college" kid, however, those that place college above ROTC in the amount of dedication to the AF may pay the price in the end when it comes to UPT. DS has placed ROTC very high on his list, he has joined AAS, he is known by the AF personnel, not only by name, but his AAS nickname. This is due to the fact that he has been active within the det. If he went in only for PT, Lab and the mandatory service, I highly doubt in the size of their det that the det commander would say hi "Pete" (nickname...nowhere near his real name...play on words of our last name)
The interesting thing at his det and his friends at other dets in other states, the majority of ROTC cadets do not want to fly. He has stated for his yr, there are only @15% who have UPT as their first pick. I think this occurs because many cadets that go engineering want to pursue that path after graduation...they are looking more to going to NORAD than to Columbus, his best friend at Ohio State is an example of this, he actually wants to go into the civil engineering. side of the AF and build the runways in IRAQ, he is a jr, when he entered as a freshman it was UPT all the way.
Conversely, the difficulty of getting a pilot slot from the AFA is really based on making it through the AFA. Be realistic, the AFA loses @25% from I-Day to graduation. I am sure every cadet entering believes they will graduate, but statistically the facts prove that this is not true. Anyone can see that many candidates, even on this board, have a mathematical weakness. The AFA it is known as the little engineering school in the Rockies. Check out the curriculum and be honest with yourself...you are mandated to take many mathematical/science courses all 4 yrs. If you feel math is a weakness, then be ready to buckle down for 4 yrs. The SA's are Ivies that also require you to have a 2nd job besides just learning. IMHO, they are harder than HYSPM, because it is not just going to class whenever you schedule your classes, it is full time, you eat when they say eat, you march when they say march, you go to class when they say go. I believe that is why you lose 25%, because school isn't 20 hours a week and the rest is free time to study or play Xbox. It takes a truly dedicated cadet to live this life. The cadet that does well does not only desire to fly, but more importantly desires to have a diploma conferred upon them from the AFA. The day they open that packet is the day they envision standing at graduation with the President speaking and a fly by some fighters, they may also envision flying the 22, but their first thought is graduation.
Done with my 0.0189467 cents, but I hope that it has given you something to mull over.