Hopeful USMA Class of 2028 : a place to play the waiting game together.

JDBx3 said:
Is it just me or has the USMA appointment activity/interest on the Forums almost vanished? Anyone still here waiting to hear? So few appointments reported here in the last 3 weeks.
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Still waiting…
 
DrMom said:
Are you still here?
KEEP FAITH!
It gets a little sickening to wait these next two weeks...but hang in there. You will know by 1 May.
Best wishes to all.
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Waiting here...and hopefully to hear something soon. But DD is on NWL and we feel like we won't really know until July 1 based on the letter she received...and doesn't nearly everyone from USMA have a story about someone who got a call 2 days before R day? Keeping hope alive here! We trust that the Lord knows the outcome and has gone ahead to prepare the direction He wants her to go!
 
Canmum said:
Waiting here...and hopefully to hear something soon. But DD is on NWL and we feel like we won't really know until July 1 based on the letter she received...and doesn't nearly everyone from USMA have a story about someone who got a call 2 days before R day? Keeping hope alive here! We trust that the Lord knows the outcome and has gone ahead to prepare the direction He wants her to go!
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The late June people either had a rejection or AOG. It is not that they heard nothing until June. Your kid will receive some notification by 1 May.
 
Still waiting here, but not very hopeful. Does USMA have a regular waitlist that extends into June as well? Or is their class completely set 5/1?
 
Just Bee-cause said:
Still waiting here, but not very hopeful. Does USMA have a regular waitlist that extends into June as well? Or is their class completely set 5/1?
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No they do not. Sometimes they will make an offer to someone who received a TWE or an AOG scholarship. But there is no ‘regular’ waiting list.
 
DrMom said:
The late June people either had a rejection or AOG. It is not that they heard nothing until June. Your kid will receive some notification by 1 May.
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Just looking at the self-reporting list for the Class of 2028, about 41% are undecided (or have declined). Assuming that percentile extends further, and some number of these decline by May 1, won't they need to backfill after May 1 to build out the class?
 
fidelisservus said:
Just looking at the self-reporting list for the Class of 2028, about 41% are undecided (or have declined). Assuming that percentile extends further, and some number of these decline by May 1, won't they need to backfill after May 1 to build out the class?
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I imagine that depends on the anticipated declination rate USMA Admissions was working with in extending the offers of appointment.
 
fidelisservus said:
Just looking at the self-reporting list for the Class of 2028, about 41% are undecided (or have declined). Assuming that percentile extends further, and some number of these decline by May 1, won't they need to backfill after May 1 to build out the class?
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Not necessarily. The self-reporting list is a tiny data slice and likely skewed by a population that is forward-leaning in its pursuit of a SA opportunity and finds SAF while looking for anything to give an edge to their application process - the candidates or their parents who post here are go-getters potentially more likely to have many irons in many fires. I would not use the data there to extrapolate. Posters may also not return to update their decision.

Additionally, the SAs have years of data to estimate declinations and attritions, and adjust their offer rate to get the yield they want to reach the target class size range. If they want X in the class, they don’t make X offers of appointment, they make X plus some Y number of offers. As the cycle winds down, they use the waitlist to draw from to more precisely close in on the X.
 
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JDBx3 said:
Is it just me or has the USMA appointment activity/interest on the Forums almost vanished? Anyone still here waiting to hear? So few appointments reported here in the last 3 weeks.
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There isn't a big wave of acceptance coming; we are the SA's plan B. This last week will be spent cleaning up and backfilling any rejections.
 
Capt MJ said:
Not necessarily. The self-reporting list is a tiny data slice and likely skewed by a population that is forward-leaning in its pursuit of a SA opportunity and finds SAF while looking for anything to give an edge to their application process - the candidates or their parents who post here are go-getters potentially more likely to have many irons in many fires. I would not use the data there to extrapolate. Posters may also not return to update their decision.

Additionally, the SAs have years of data to estimate declinations and attritions, and adjust their offer rate to get the yield they want to reach the target class size range. If they want X in the class, they don’t make X offers of appointment, they make X plus some Y number of offers. As the cycle winds down, they use the waitlist to draw from to more precisely close in on the X.
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Thanks. All of that makes sense. Looking at previous years of self reporting, it appears that about 10% of the class shows up annually on the forum. It seems they are aiming for a class of 1220+/- based on the internal email posted here. So, the sense is that Admissions sent out say 1500 (wild guess) appointments based on annual stats, anticipating a capture of around 1220 cadets. I assume what you are saying is that if declines are trending higher than expected, and they sense a shortfall, they will send out a few more appointments in the next two weeks to shore up the Class? I assume that also means if their projections are correct at this point, those still on the NWL should probably be prepared for a TWE?
 
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Just Bee-cause said:
Still waiting here, but not very hopeful. Does USMA have a regular waitlist that extends into June as well? Or is their class completely set 5/1?
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I don't know for the US citizens but last year I was waitlisted (Embassy told me on 4/23 and the Academy confirmed on 5/10) and got my rejection letter on 6/14.

Yes. I am an international reapplicant in Africa.
 
fidelisservus said:
Just looking at the self-reporting list for the Class of 2028, about 41% are undecided (or have declined). Assuming that percentile extends further, and some number of these decline by May 1, won't they need to backfill after May 1 to build out the class?
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Yes but people do not come back here to update their status...there is requirement--so all along assume that people have been accepting or declining and USMA is making the back fills. The reality is that you will know by 1 May...it might change after that but you won't know and it is highly unlikely. USMA Admissions is scrambling right now to ensure that 1220 new cadets take the oath on R-Day. (International cadets are an entirely different category of admissions than a US citizen applying.)
 
Texark147 said:
A VP nom showed up in my DS's portal. He is still currently QNS (Qualified Not Selected). We are waiting to see if his status changes. Doing the limbo dance! Lol
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Where in the portal do they see that type of status, because mine just has my checklist of things on the right, and then a "100% Packet Complete" or something like that, on the left hand side, but it doesn't say my status (under review, qualified, not qualified), nothing.
 
sherheath said:
nope, nothing. Also can updates still show up after the "red banner" update times? I feel like when the update is over at the end of the week that we have to wait until the next week for changes, but I can't seem to get confirmation of this.
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If you don't mind explaining, but what does the "red banner update times" mean? and what are the times?
 
bp08 said:
Where in the portal do they see that type of status, because mine just has my checklist of things on the right, and then a "100% Packet Complete" or something like that, on the left hand side, but it doesn't say my status (under review, qualified, not qualified), nothing.
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He got a 3Q letter in his portal, so we knew he was fully qualified. Then in his turn down letter they called him fully qualified but not selected. His FFR told him his status in the system says QNS. Qualified Not Selected.
 
bp08 said:
If you don't mind explaining, but what does the "red banner update times" mean? and what are the times?
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on Thursday afternoon a red box "banner" will appear stating that they portal is going into scheduled maintenance until the following day or until complete. That is typically when updates/decisions are posted in the portal.
 
bp08 said:
Where in the portal do they see that type of status, because mine just has my checklist of things on the right, and then a "100% Packet Complete" or something like that, on the left hand side, but it doesn't say my status (under review, qualified, not qualified), nothing.
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The QNS is a correspondence letter - just like the Qualified Candidate letter (Aka NWL). USMA doesn't really have a status field. You should have letter telling you where you are in the process. The red banner is a big box that shows on Thursdays indicating system maintenance - all day. Some people have found that this is usually the time that QNS or appointments post.
 
bp08 said:
Where in the portal do they see that type of status, because mine just has my checklist of things on the right, and then a "100% Packet Complete" or something like that, on the left hand side, but it doesn't say my status (under review, qualified, not qualified), nothing.
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If you have an appointment, on the lefthand side there will be a box underneath where they write describing the status colors. It will say "Offered USMA Appointment" and will ask you to accept or decline. It is hard to miss.
 
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