Your son's situation is what prompted my question. Wouldn't the Academy, in some instances, consider refraining from offering appointments to some of those holding presidential nominations until after MOC slates were announced?
I guess it depends on how many of the 100 Presidential nominations it needs to use for those in the pool.
Lets play a little math game. It's a multi-part scenario. Realize before I start, that the academy has 50 years of data, statistics, averages, etc... to work with. SORRY FOR BEING LONG WINDED!!! LOL
1) 15 September; the academy has determined about 6000 of the 10,000 (Prospects) who initially put in any paperwork, to be legitimate applicants. Of those 6000, we'll assume that as of this date, there are approximately 1500 completed applications. (Minus the possibility of a nomination). And we'll even assume for the sake of argument, that the academy considers them all competitive and therefor (Candidates)
2) Of these 1500, the academy realizes; based on historical data; that about 200 of them fall under the category of the "No Brainer Club". In other words, these are students that exceed all requirements. They are 4.0 gpa type students. Class rank in the top 1%. Most difficult classes; AP/IB. Kick Butt ACT/SAT scores. Volunteer, Sports, EC, bla bla bla... In other words, there may be others that will be their equals; but probably no way anyone could be scored HIGHER.
3) The academy, just like early selections from a traditional college, wants to lock in future students. That's why USC, Stanford, and most other colleges have an "Early Application Selection" period. They play off of your emotions to get you excited to attend their school; but mainly, because they know that you WILL BE COURTED by many other schools. That's what happens when you are a 4.0, ranked #1-#5, bla bla bla. All the schools want you. The academy is no different.
4) The academy then decides to "Hook" you. If you are part of the "No Brainer Club"; they will offer you an LOA. Unless you already have a presidential, ROTC, or other non-congressional nomination; then they may very well offer you an appointment. Remember; they WANT YOU. They want to get you pumped up where you will turn down all other schools.
5) Now; just because you had a presidential nomination, and even received the appointment, doesn't mean that you can't still be interviewed and given a nomination by a congressional/senator member. If your congresswo/man doesn't have many other applicants, they will definitely want to give you a nomination. It helps them look good. The academy loves this, because even if you accepted the appointment the 1st of November; and don't receive a nomination from the MOC until December; the academy can still SWITCH the nominations and free back up the presidential and use it for someone else.
But what's important to remember is that the academy is competing with all the other colleges in the country. 10,000 might apply to the academy and they only accept say 1400; but that is similar to most high end schools. The academy wants the best they can get. So, they will go after those 1st 200 (Rough estimate) in the "No Brainer Club" to try and excite them and lock them in. That's a pretty guaranteed 200 compared to the rest. They will obviously have no problem getting 1400 appointees. But just like any other school, they want the best. Giving LOA/Appointments to the "No Brainer Club" is a way of getting these. Remember, they have 50 years of data. These LOA/Early Appointments aren't questionable candidates. These are the ones who have the type of total scores that are in the top percentages of those who will eventually accept the appointments.
Remember however that because of the academies standards, all appointees have great scores and could get into most other colleges in the country. So this "No brainer club" isn't some special group. They just have total scores that probably will remain in the highest percentage of GREAT SCORES from ALL applicants. And, because they had the initiative and motivation to apply early; just like early apps to a traditional college; the academy wants to try and lock in these applicants. Those in the "Wait til march" crowd, can definitely have some with just as high scores as those in the "No Brainer Club". But the academy wasn't aware of them during the early selection period.
And my son's situation is a little unique because of our state. Only 19 individuals IN THE ENTIRE STATE applied to the air force academy. Of those, only about 9 were considered deserving of a MOC nomination. Of those, I believe 5 were eventually offered appointments. So, while the academy would have liked a MOC in our state to give my son a nomination so the academy could free up the presidential; the MOC said, screw that. I have more than enough qualified applicants. (We only have 1 rep for the entire state). But for MOST MOC's, they can come up with a list of 10, but finding an uber qualified that they want as one of their automatics could be difficult. So they may WANT to put a nomination in for the one already with a presidential. It's normally a fight between the academy and the MOCs. Usually, each wants the other to use THEIR nomination to free up their nomination. In my son's case, the MOC didn't care because they didn't have that many people. The academy on the other hand isn't going to take a chance at losing locking in an EARLY ADMISSIONS. Hope this explains some of the logic. Again, sorry for writing a book. later... mike...