So the Army has had its hands tied by congress but the Navy and AF haven't?
Yes. First off, let me just say that the only scenario where the hands of the various services will truly be "tied" is in the event of a government shutdown. Everyone gets sent home if that happens (except for "essential services"). Given the devastation that will result from a shut-down, I continue to believe that this will not happen and that we will see another temporary stop-gap CR in the end that will carry us forward for a little while longer. I can also see Congress carving out the military budget from this CR, because I don't think that MOCs are trying to hold the military budget hostage to get the cuts they want in other programs, like Medicare (at least I hope they aren't doing that, because we have troops whose lives depend on this budget).
Our members of Congress pulled an all-nighter last night and passed a bill that the President has sworn to veto.
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/1...n-spending-cuts-after-marathon-funding-debate (I suspect that BHO wants the pain from the belt-tightening to be felt AFTER the 2012 election, and the Republicans want the pain to be felt BEFORE the 2012 election). The dem-controlled Senate will pick the matter up on February 28 after they return from their little "recess" -- less than a week before the scheduled March 4 shut-down. As reflected in the article published this morning, the House dems are seeking to extend the CR until March 31 "to prevent any interruption in vital government services", when the threat of a government shutdown will loom again.
At this point, there is no one -- not even the President -- who knows for sure what will happen. But here's what I think (which is a total SWAG).
Each of the services right now are faced with uncertainty. The budget planners in each of the services receive input from a variety of sources, including JAG lawyers and Finance Corps officers. And each service measures risk differently than the others. Ultimately, it is the commander who makes the decision (not sure which commander makes that call, but it is likely much higher than Cadet Command). The question that each service has to decide right now is whether it is "safe" to award some scholarships now when they don't really know how much money will be in the bank. Again, some planners and some services will be less risk tolerant than others. Some advisors will say that it is not advisable to make financial commitments because we don't really know how that will impact other desired funding objectives. Others will be more cavalier about this decision. The longer this goes on, the higher the risk becomes.
To the Air Force, they may view the pipeline for new pilots as a "must have" while the Army can view the pipeline for new platoon leaders as a "nice to have". I certainly can see the services saying, "Well, it's a pretty safe bet -- even in the worst-case scenario -- that we will need to award a certain percentage of scholarships, so let's dribble out a few offers now to the top folks on the OML before the AF does, so we can grab these folks for the Army." It is for that reason that I can see AROTC releasing a few scholarship awards irrespective of what happens in Congress. The bulk, though, will come once the picture for the financial planners becomes clearer, which I suspect will be in March and April. This means rolling over the bulk of the AROTC Scholarship applications over to the March 8 board.
Certainly, to those who have already been offered an AROTC scholarship last fall from the October board, when CC was less concerned about budget-related issues, those binding offers have been made and it would be EXTREMELY unlikely that AROTC will go back on its word now for those folks. Those AROTC awards are binding contracts already formed at this point, in my view. And if it comes down to a decision about whether the Army can purchase more ammo for troops deployed overseas, I think the Army would rather have the CONUS troops practice with squirt guns before rescinding any scholarship offers that have already been extended.
Again, this is a total SWAG. Your view on this delay is just as valid as mine. I actually hope your view is the correct one.
Once again, the silver lining in this delay (regardless of its origin) is that the admissions decisions from the bulk of colleges (i.e., non-rolling admission colleges that had application deadlines of Jan. 1) will start rolling in and the AROTC scholarship winners won't have to guess about which college they want their AROTC scholarship to apply when offered scholarships to more than one ROTC unit.