Thanks again for the feedback... I think his resume is shaping up nicely, but reading on here about so many who are 3q'd with noms who do NOT get appointments makes you wonder what that magic combination is to get an appointment. I know there are thousands of other kids about there who are just as strong, and while I know he could get into any number of great schools with his credentials, he has his heart set on USNA or USCGA. We are just trying to help him focus on the things he CAN control and not worry about the things he can't...
There is no magic formula.
I'm sure your son is a strong contender, but in the end, admission to one of the SAs is a tough competition. There may be a formula for what weight is given to class rank/standardized tests, etc.; however, there are a hell of a lot of subjective factors that play into the mix. You've heard/read it all before, no doubt.
There is all sorts of debate on here as to what the "actual" acceptance rates are at these places (i.e. do you include all who opened a file, all who are 3Q with nom? etc.). Suffice it to say, no matter how you add up the numbers, there are more kids who do not get in than who do. It's cliched to say, but the only thing you can control is your own record. Looks like you are fully aware of that. Good grades, good test scores, leadership, and sports/ECs are the way to do that. From what I've read above, your son is in as strong a shape as any to compete.
We all had our hearts set on certain schools when going through the admissions process. It doesn't always work out the way we want it to. A good plan B is essential. Unfortunately, for kids who have been successful in high school, the college admissions process can be one of the first exposures to a real disappointment that they ever have. Being told "no" sucks, and there is no way around it.
I have done college fairs as an alumni representative for VMI. VMI was not my first choice school as a high school senior, although it grew to be the place I belonged. When I was applying in the mid '90s, I did not get into USMA despite having what I thought was a strong record. It absolutely pissed me off. I am upfront about this when I counsel kids about VMI, and I always tell them that if they want to be active duty officers, especially if they want a career in the services, the best bet to to consider an SA as a first choice. Do the best you can to make your record strong and
never self-eliminate from consideration. (the last bit is just general advice, as I'm sure it doesn't apply to the OP).
More than you asked for, I'm sure. Nothing you haven't heard already, I'm sure. Nonetheless, all that is important is that your son knows he did the best he could and that no magic bullet is going to swing him into the admit pile.
He sounds like a strong candidate, and I'm hopeful he gets an appointment.