Unless the NROTC nom is a candidate's ONLY nomination, there's no way to tell if that's what the academy charged their appointment to. So you can't really know when or if you'll get an appointment based on nomination source.
Ditto here, DS has three noms (Congressional, Senatorial and NROTC) and is still CPR...I'm assuming at this point the NROTC nom, and competing for the 20 slots allowed to that nom source, is his best (last shot) this year to win an appointment.