They only go through the effort of a waiver process for those candidates whom they feel are competitive and more than likely will be offered appointments. A very positive indicator but not a guarantee though.
Relative to how I understand the question, I think this needs more clarification.
It only goes w/o saying, USNA would not invest resources in pursuing a waiver IF it has been determined the candidate is for various other reason(s) been deemed non-competitive. And unquestionably, when USNA does pursue a waiver, that is a positive indicator, i.e. evidence that the candidate remains in contention for an appointment.
On those we are in total agreement. However, the implication that those waivers are pursued for some potentially 3Qed candidates and not others, depending upon their WP score w/in that group of 3Qed is not accurate.
In other words, would USNA NOT pursue a waiver for a lower scoring but clearly qualified candidate, while pursuing for one who might have a higher score? Not.
And the reason for my point is because I believe that seems to be what is being asked, seeking some indication of what is or is not forthcoming re: appointment.
Remember ...
Here was HMX's specific question:
"How competitive are you if admissions asks for a waiver for you? It doesn't necessarily mean you're at or near the top of your congressional slate, does it?"
In other words ...no. It should not be interpreted that the candidate is "at or near the top of your congressional slate." You may be, but assuming such on the basis of this would be in error, I believe.