Either way you play this numbers are about the same from a chance perspective.
@2200 are offered slots. 300 would be 14%, and they are saying 20%. A very far cry from 2 years ago.
I happen to agree with dunninla. If your college has both A/AFROTC take the next few months contacting each unit, and ask to meet with them.
~~~ Our DS did not interview at any college, his AFA ALO submitted his rec for both. After he was accepted to his top choice college, with AFROTC scholarship in hand, he met with not only the COC, but also spent an hr or so with some 300/400's.
He used this time to get the answers regarding his chances as a non-tech for SFT and rated. They were brutally honest regarding what would be needed from him as far as PFT, AFOQT and cgpa to be competitive.
The time he hung with the cadets they hung in the lounge playing Xbox and talinkg about how to juggle everything, what it is like, different types of military fraternities, such as AArnie Air, Silver Wings, Honor Guard, etc.
College is not only academics, but socializing too. ROTC is like that too. There is no algorithm to decide. There is just an emotional gut check on which branch you feel at home with.
The fact is if you go non-rated, and don't want to drive tanks, the career fields are close. The mission is different, but the job...not so much. Intel, maintenance, PA, security forces, finance, comm., etc. No flaming. Just my opinion.
Finally, remember the biggest differences between the two. AROTC allows cadets to go Reserve or Guard. AFROTC you can only go AD.
Clarification regarding changing majors for AFROTC. You can easily change your non-tech major to another non-tech or any tech majors. The problem is when you want to switch from a tech major to a non-tech major. Typically, the answer will be no!
Hope this helps, but remember as kinnem states, my opinion and 2 bucks will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks.