"When will I receive an appointment?" These stats show when:

HowBoutThemApples

HowBoutThemApples

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Joined
Nov 15, 2019
Messages
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DISCLAIMER: This is about a 10% sample size so take it worth a grain of salt. Last year was also different because of the pandemic, so take this very lightly. Hopefully this can help settle our minds as we wait. I took last years appointment list and calculated which months were most prominent in these self-reports. So many factors could affect this, so again, take it worth a grain of salt.

USMA:

November- 2/174
December- 7/174
January- 4/174
February- 120/174
March- 33/174
April- 9/174
May- 1/178

If you get an appointment to USMA, there is a ~68% chance you get it in February
USNA

November 3/146
December 24/146
January 35/146
February 38/146
March 21/146
April 9/146
May 16/146

If you get an appointment to USNA, there is a ~26% chance you get it in February, and a 23% chance you get it in January(get that application done quick!)

USAFA

November 3/192
December 18/192
January 36/192
February 34/192
March 87/192
April 13/192
May 1/192

If you get an appointment to USAFA, there is a ~45% chance you get it in March, and a 18% chance you get it in January and February


Takeaways:

USMA Favors the month of February, followed by March.
USNA splits it pretty evenly from December-March. FINISH YOUR APPLICATION NOW! It looks like there's going to an appointment wave next month so give yourself a chance to be a part of it.
USAFA favors the month of March, and January and February evenly follow.

Not finishing your application by January 1st could hurt you. Don't wait until the extended deadlines. Hoping everyone on this forum gets an appointment, I'm praying for every one of y'all and hopefully we will meet next summer!
 
Super helpful stats! My DD just had her application to USAFA marked as complete last week. The waiting game is hard but glad to know what to expect.
 
Except things for sure are wonky this year. Covid delays. Whole new system for BGO’s. Even MOC’s could have their own delays. All specifically/indirectly why the deadline to apply this cycle has been extended to February.

May not affect the general outcome of appointments, but certainly could. I would actually expect it to And this year is an anomaly for sure where, imo, ‘normal’ inferences cannot be made. At all.

Advice is always the same...get you best application in as soon as you can. But don’t send one in that isn’t your best, simply to be earlier.
 
Agree with @justdoit19 100%. With the app deadline pushed back a month, lots of SATs/ACTs being completed later normal, and the new app portal I wouldn’t be shocked to USNA a month slower than normal with mid March through Mid April having a flurry of activity. That has not been published by USNA in any way, just my opinion. USNA has always published that most applicants will know by 4/15 and for 99% of the class they do. They haven’t changed this stance as of date.
 
NavyHoops said:
Agree with @justdoit19 100%. With the app deadline pushed back a month, lots of SATs/ACTs being completed later normal, and the new app portal I wouldn’t be shocked to USNA a month slower than normal with mid March through Mid April having a flurry of activity. That has not been published by USNA in any way, just my opinion. USNA has always published that most applicants will know by 4/15 and for 99% of the class they do. They haven’t changed this stance as of date.
Click to expand...
I imagine they will continue see that has a hard deadline, as other colleges will have already extended offers, etc.

(hard as a guideline, of course)
 
NavyHoops said:
Agree with @justdoit19 100%. With the app deadline pushed back a month, lots of SATs/ACTs being completed later normal, and the new app portal I wouldn’t be shocked to USNA a month slower than normal with mid March through Mid April having a flurry of activity. That has not been published by USNA in any way, just my opinion. USNA has always published that most applicants will know by 4/15 and for 99% of the class they do. They haven’t changed this stance as of date.
Click to expand...
justme said:
I imagine they will continue see that has a hard deadline, as other colleges will have already extended offers, etc.
Click to expand...

I think I made the same comments on another thread the other day. Analysis of what happened in past years is meaningless. The only (near) certainty (I hope) is that a Class of approximately 1000 Plebes will get sworn in next summer. Beyond that, timing is pure speculation. Be patient (even more so than ever).
 
Old Navy BGO said:
... a Class of approximately 1000 Plebes will get sworn in next summer. Beyond that, timing is pure speculation. Be patient (even more so than ever).
Click to expand...
.
Wow Old Navy .... 1000 is a rough approximation for sure. I think it will be more like ~1175 plebes next summer.

I believe it was 1178 this past summer.
.
 
Sean17 said:
DISCLAIMER: This is about a 10% sample size so take it worth a grain of salt. Last year was also different because of the pandemic, so take this very lightly. Hopefully this can help settle our minds as we wait. I took last years appointment list and calculated which months were most prominent in these self-reports. So many factors could affect this, so again, take it worth a grain of salt.

USMA:

November- 2/174
December- 7/174
January- 4/174
February- 120/174
March- 33/174
April- 9/174
May- 1/178

If you get an appointment to USMA, there is a ~68% chance you get it in February
USNA

November 3/146
December 24/146
January 35/146
February 38/146
March 21/146
April 9/146
May 16/146

If you get an appointment to USNA, there is a ~26% chance you get it in February, and a 23% chance you get it in January(get that application done quick!)

USAFA

November 3/192
December 18/192
January 36/192
February 34/192
March 87/192
April 13/192
May 1/192

If you get an appointment to USAFA, there is a ~45% chance you get it in March, and a 18% chance you get it in January and February


Takeaways:

USMA Favors the month of February, followed by March.
USNA splits it pretty evenly from December-March. FINISH YOUR APPLICATION NOW! It looks like there's going to an appointment wave next month so give yourself a chance to be a part of it.
USAFA favors the month of March, and January and February evenly follow.

Not finishing your application by January 1st could hurt you. Don't wait until the extended deadlines. Hoping everyone on this forum gets an appointment, I'm praying for every one of y'all and hopefully we will meet next summer!
Click to expand...
Great stats. Thank you!
 
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