+1 Stealth.
The RPA students no longer to UPT, they are not giving them out for drop nights. They now go to San Antonio for training.
When Bullet went through FTU, he had FAIPs in his class. For a few years FAIPs really weren't being dropped because they had enough grey beards to fill the IP roles at UPT. (Grey bears are guys that go to UPT as their last assignment). This was really popular in the late 90s because they were taking that assignment knowing they were going to retire after that assignment and did not want to be deployed. After 9/11 and airlines no longer hiring they were no longer requesting UPT, plus the AF wanted to keep them OP, they rejig it again to giving out FAIP assignments.
JMPO, and looking back from history, it would not shock me with the predicted pilot shortage that grey beards will be volunteering again and the need for FAIPs will be reduced.
~~~ Better to have a 16 yr pilot than someone straight out of UPT training new students (no flaming...mpo). Plus better to have the newly winged get more years operational when you know they owe 9 instead of getting maybe 5 since they will have to be students at FTU.
As far as some of the things being posted here about the chances, etc. I have a couple of things to throw into the equation.
1. The AF knows that commercial airlines are going to be hiring at an insane rate for the next 5 yrs because since 2001 they have not been hiring.
~~~ Commercial airlines mandate retirement at 62 (?). If the bulk were last hired in 01, and the majority joined at 42 (20 ys ADAF) that means right now many are 55. The exodus is going to be huge before even the 15 grads have finished their 1st op tour.
~~~ Hence why you may see fewer FAIPS in the future,, PLUS more pilot slots being given
2. The AF is bringing on line in the next 5 years a lot of 35s, even with the conversion of 16s to 35s you still need to add in point 1, airlines, into the equation.
3. You are also going to loose those that will leave as soon as their pilot commitment is over. See point 1
Again, jmpo, but I don't see the numbers for pilot dropping by a lot. I can see longer casual status occurring prior to UPT.
As far as AFROTC, I have to say as an AFROTC grad parent, DS was told carry at least a 3.2, medically qualified, strong PFT, AFOQT and TBAS you will get a pilot slot.
~ DS's class had 100%
~ if you read through the AFROTC threads from last year too, nationally it was @95%.
~~~~ I don't know about this year.
To me the real reason to go to the AFA is for the following reasons:
1. You want to live the AFA lifestyle
2. You have investigated the mandated AFA curriculum
3. Probably the most important. Commissioning. AFROTC will go ADAF, but they are still part of the Reserves
Going because you believe it is your best chance for UPT means nothing except you get to go to UPT. Making it through UPT is different. It is not just academics it is also about handling the stick, thus why PCSM2.0 was created.
That all being said, I think AFA grads at UPT have an edge over ROTC and OCS. The academic pressure, the ability to fly in college is an edge compared to those without the opportunity. Flip side, in two short weeks my DS will wing, he will be going heavies, and after 6 years I will meet fencer at the winging. Her DS, AF grad, is also going heavies.
~Point being the slate is wiped clean when you arrive at UPT, and it all comes down to the number dropped for track night. 1 more and you go fighters, one less and you go heavies.
~~~~Ask flieger or Bullet about the mid 90s when no fighters dropped at all.
Just saying, and now toss it in the circular filing cabinet.