500 USMA Appointments Mailed Out Today

For those above, here are some "answers" (really guesstimates) that are just based on my experience as a Dad and things I otherwise learned here.

1) 500 apointments went out. The acceptance rate will be high, but some of those appointees will likely have offers from other SA's that they prefer.
2) Essentially 700 appointment offers are now off the table, as 200 appointments or so are reserved for the USMAPS kids. They get their offers late, April or so, but the 200 number is fairly constant.
3) The class size will be what, 1200 or so, have they announced it? Say it's 1,250. If the acceptance rate is expected to be 85%, they will send out 1,470 or so appointments.
4) That means there will be another 740 appointment offers to go out, again assuming 85% acceptance in recent years, could be lower if recent acceptance percentage has been higher. e.g. 690 or so if 90% acceptance rate.
5) Of those 700 or so remaining appointment offers, there will be another sizeable wave in the next few weeks, then it will get spotty as waivers are cleared up, close slates are decided, and they select "composition goals" round-outs, etc.
6) The rest of the calculus of how and when they select the first 150 (the ones ranked by WCS) off the NWL, and fill out the class composition goals from the remainder of the NWL, is deliberately inscrutable.

Boy, I said "or so" a lot.
 
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Sledge said:
For those above, here are some "answers" (really guesstimates) that are just based on my experience as a Dad and things I otherwise learned here.

1) 500 apointments went out. The acceptance rate will be high, but some of those appointees will likely have offers from other SA's that they prefer.
2) Essentially 700 appointment offers are now off the table, as 200 appointments or so are reserved for the USMAPS kids. They get their offers late, April or so, but the 200 number is fairly constant.
3) The class size will be what, 1200 or so, have they announced it? Say it's 1,250. If the acceptance rate is expected to be 85%, they will send out 1,470 or so appointments.
4) That means there will be another 740 appointment offers to go out, again assuming 85% acceptance in recent years, could be lower if recent acceptance percentage has been higher. e.g. 690 or so if 90% acceptance rate.
5) Of those 700 or so remaining appointment offers, there will be another sizeable wave in the next few weeks, then it will get spotty as waivers are cleared up, close slates are decided, and they select "composition goals" round-outs, etc.
6) The rest of the calculus of how and when they select the first 150 (the ones ranked by WCS) off the NWL, and fill out the class composition goals from the remainder of the NWL, is deliberately inscrutable.

Boy, I said "or so" a lot.
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Good stuff!

Regarding 2). I think there are more than 700. Anecdotal evidence (SLE friends and other threads) indicates that some appointments were given out already perhaps less than a hundred. So 800 or so appointments may be off the table.
 
Sledge said:
For those above, here are some "answers" (really guesstimates) that are just based on my experience as a Dad and things I otherwise learned here.

1) 500 apointments went out. The acceptance rate will be high, but some of those appointees will likely have offers from other SA's that they prefer............


Boy, I said "or so" a lot.
Click to expand...

This was my understanding & I saw it somewhere;

1. about 16,000 students apply for USMA, every year in average
2. about 7,000 or so completes the application. (The others drop or not complete the app.)
3. out of # 2, about 4,800 gets nominations.
4. out of #3, 2,200 gets nominations and are 3Qed. (maybe the current size of NWL can be estimated from this?)
5. out of # 4, 1,600 or so gets appointed.
6. only 1,250 or so accepts the appointments.

Please correct me if you have more accurate numbers or comments.
Thanks,
 
Yes, Padre. you are correct.

For anyone else reading, the phrase "offers off the table" should not be overly discouraging. To paint it with a broad stroke, you have, if past trends hold true, a 50% chance of an appointment if you have a nomination and are 3Q. But that percentage is for the whole population, not your specific gender, race, etc.
 
lionking1964 said:
This was my understanding & I saw it somewhere;

1. about 16,000 students apply for USMA, every year in average
2. about 7,000 or so completes the application. (The others drop or not complete the app.)
3. out of # 2, about 4,800 gets nominations.
4. out of #3, 2,200 gets nominations and are 3Qed. (maybe the current size of NWL can be estimated from this?)
5. out of # 4, 1,600 or so gets appointed.
6. only 1,250 or so accepts the appointments.

Please correct me if you have more accurate numbers or comments.
Thanks,
Click to expand...

You never know how "popular" the academies are from year to year so that affects applications. After 9/11, IIRC, applications surged, as did slots available.
I don't know exact numbers , but 1.600 seems high for appointments. I think acceptance rates have been very high in recent years.
 
Randomcitizen16 said:
Is it correct that a candidate cannot receive an appointment in this wave if they did not receive a 3Q letter (even though I think I am), but got a nom?
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Yes! My DS never got a 3Q letter, but received his appointment during the first big wave 2 years ago.
 
If I received and passed a waiver for surgery (november), is that an indicator that I am qualified academically and physically?
 
hellofriend123 said:
If I received and passed a waiver for surgery (november), is that an indicator that I am qualified academically and physically?
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Congratulations on the medical waiver for the surgery. That is great from the medical qualification perspective. The academic side is a different piece but "reading into it" from my understanding -from the DODmerb site that explains the process- waiver requests are automatically submitted to the academy if the candidate is considered competitive candidates. So that would be a good sign. Your candidate portal should tell you for sure though where you stand on the academic qualification. See if you have the green check mark there. Good luck!
 
Ok, this might be a totally off the wall question, and it's certainly a curiosity question only, but DS's BFE came today and the top corner was torn open a bit. Right under the open part is written #17. Any idea what that means? I didn't/wouldn't open it but I'm just curious :) Anybody else notice any numbers?
 
Sam2018 said:
Ok, this might be a totally off the wall question, and it's certainly a curiosity question only, but DS's BFE came today and the top corner was torn open a bit. Right under the open part is written #17. Any idea what that means? I didn't/wouldn't open it but I'm just curious :) Anybody else notice any numbers?
Click to expand...

Congrats on your appointment!! I'm just wondering but did your DS receive a phone call from his MOC??
 
Sam2018 said:
Ok, this might be a totally off the wall question, and it's certainly a curiosity question only, but DS's BFE came today and the top corner was torn open a bit. Right under the open part is written #17. Any idea what that means? I didn't/wouldn't open it but I'm just curious :) Anybody else notice any numbers?
Click to expand...
What state are you in if you dont mind me asking? About to have me running to the mail box!
 
Congratulations! This is getting very nerve wracking. No MOC phone calls or portal update for me... :(
 
Sam2018 said:
Ok, this might be a totally off the wall question, and it's certainly a curiosity question only, but DS's BFE came today and the top corner was torn open a bit. Right under the open part is written #17. Any idea what that means? I didn't/wouldn't open it but I'm just curious :) Anybody else notice any numbers?
Click to expand...
Did it come regular USPS mail or priority USPS?
 
Some don't call. Especially if they are busy, which I imagine they are considering tomorrow is a big day in DC. DS was not called about USAFA, it just showed up. He was busy.
 
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