- Joined
- Mar 5, 2012
- Messages
- 1,102
According to AFrpaso’s chart, historically it looks like only about 15% of appointees actually report their appointment on this forum. So, about 50 out of over 300 so far have reported.
The rough historic 15% reflects the number out of a class at the end of the cycle - not right this minute. We can’t know who else has an appointment in hand. Only Admissions does.
There is no way of knowing if what we are seeing today correlates to 15%, with a predictable unreported number of posts out there, as if this minute.
It’s a tiny data sliver, with a trend factor built of jello. We have also speculated here many times about the bias in the poster pool, as the people here tend to go out researching and lean forward in the process, which may or may not correlate to a higher appointment rate.
I should be including a canned statement every time I post that chart. @Capt MJ is correct that we really cannot make any reliable estimate of the total number of appointments offered at a specific point in the admissions cycle. Really any possible statistical conclusions go out the window once we start dealing with self-reported data. There are two primary sources of uncertainty, the uncertainty in the admissions process and the uncertainty in the self-reporting and we have no real way to disentangle them.