Thanks to everyone who responded to my query so thoughtfully and generously! It does seem like a long shot to not only get a nomination, but then get chosen for that one (or possibly two) open MOC spot to attend the academy. @Alchemist thank you for sharing your daughter's experience. So happy she got in after waiting patiently! We will be prepared for all of the above. If DS doesn't get in to USNA, he would attend a state school with NROTC (with or without scholarship) and reapply to USNA next year. I'm not sure if it's worth it to apply to a bunch of top tier schools (Ivy/privates) if his goal is to try to transfer out to UNSA. Thanks again for the good guidance!