I have a close friend that is currently a Doolie at USAFA. She mentioned in a message that the class of 2015 has been reduced to 930 cadets. Can anyone confirm this? If it's true, why are so many being dropped?
It wouldn't surprise me. 11.4% lower chance of receiving an offer of appointment if it's true though.
Didn't the class start out at a little over 1200? I would be a little concerned about the rate of attrition. 36% fewer Cadets would result in fewer than 800 graduating. "Attrition happens." but this is crazy! Does anyone else think the rate is high? Flieger's 36% attrition rate is over a 4 year period. This works out to roughly 17% attrition in less than a year. I understand the attrition rate is not constant over the 4 year period. I would guess the highest number drop out in the beginning and the rate maybe tapers off toward graduation, but it still seems like a lot.I have a close friend that is currently a Doolie at USAFA. She mentioned in a message that the class of 2015 has been reduced to 930 cadets. Can anyone confirm this? If it's true, why are so many being dropped?
.....The Academy needs to be down to 4000 cadets by fall (I understand this is their goal). Cadets who in years past would have been several chances to correct errors/grades/what not, are no longer being given those chance to straighten up and get their act together. There will be some more attrition before classes start in the fall again, more from the class of 2014 for sure as they will have to commit in the fall. Times are hard all over, the military is no exception.
2bornot2b, Class of 2015 didn't start out quite that high. There were about 1150 on I Day. A couple didn't even make it past that day, some were medically turned back during Basic after injuries etc, and others left by their choice at different points during Basic. On Acceptance Day, my son's squadron was the only one that was still at full strength--they since have lost a couple I think. I have heard that there are periods of higher attrition--during Basic, after the first semester when cadets don't return after Christmas break, and after the second (sophomore) year when cadets have to sign the commitment letter and will owe the Air Force time if they leave during junior or senior years. Whether that's historically accurate or just AFA folklore I'm not sure.
Getting down to 4000 cadets by fall is not quite accurate. That is not a possible goal, and the academy understands that.
If you use the more recent numbers that EISib presented; get rid of all 2012 cadets because they won't be there in the fall. That still leave more than 250 too many; assuming the new class of 2016 only start with 1000. But they are starting with more than that. The average drop out during BCT has been around 7%. That means the class of 2016 should lose about 70 people during BCT. That will bring them down to just below 1000.
It is very unlikely that approximately 80 "Soon to be Firsties" are going to simply quit. Once an individual starts their Junior year, the only way they leave is going to be if they do something wrong personally or academically and the academy throws them out. That means between the class of 2014 committing and the class of 2015 deciding whether to stay after the first year, that they need to drop approximately 12-13%.
Is all this possible? Yes, but I doubt very much the academy will be at 4000 students when classes start August 2nd (or 9th - whatever it is this coming year). But I do believe that by this time next year, or by the end of the 2nd semester, they should be down to 4000. Thus, the reason the class of 2017 goes back up a little compared to 2016.
Yes, it is important to remember that getting in is just the first step. It gets harder after that........ "Read and Heed" indeed!! sending this to my DS as well.I hope you are right but the article (if reported correctly) clearly states, "By Sept. 30, the academy must be down to 4,000 cadets, a 10-percent drop." That doesn't sound like next spring to me but I hope you are right because it won't be pretty if that is what has to happen. I have sent the article to my cadet with the heading of "read and heed".