Drop in numbers

Discussion in 'Air Force Academy - USAFA' started by Shurstell, Feb 14, 2012.

  1. Shurstell

    Shurstell Member

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    I have a close friend that is currently a Doolie at USAFA. She mentioned in a message that the class of 2015 has been reduced to 930 cadets. Can anyone confirm this? If it's true, why are so many being dropped?
     
  2. LFry94

    LFry94 USAFA C1C '17

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    It wouldn't surprise me. 11.4% lower chance of receiving an offer of appointment if it's true though. :thumbdown:
     
  3. flieger83

    flieger83 Super Moderator Moderator

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    Attrition occurs. The wing is OVER strength right now by a LOT...numbers are being cut.

    FYI...my class entered USAFA with, if memory serves, 1,508 members. We graduated just over 952.

    That's an attrition rate over 36%.
    (and we were NOT unusual at that time)

    Steve
    USAFA ALO
    USAFA '83
     
  4. aglages

    aglages Parent

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    Last I heard (two weeks ago) the class of 2015 was at 1037. That is a loss of about 100 cadets since I-Day. About what is normal I think.
     
  5. Dad

    Dad Member

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    2015 Doolies leaving has no impact on 2016 Appointments. You are still in the hunt for one of the 1050 slots. Good luck. :thumb:
     
  6. kdc246

    kdc246 Member

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    CLASS STATISTICS (as of 30 November 2011)
    2012=1102
    2013=1082
    2014=1125
    2015=1056
    These numbers are posted in the Falcon Family newsletter from the Academy site. They have not yet posted January's newsletter, should be relatively soon, around the 20th I think.
    There was a discussion on the FB C/O 2014 site that said the number for 2014 had dropped to 1097 so 28 less in just a month or so. The Academy needs to be down to 4000 cadets by fall (I understand this is their goal). Cadets who in years past would have been several chances to correct errors/grades/what not, are no longer being given those chance to straighten up and get their act together. There will be some more attrition before classes start in the fall again, more from the class of 2014 for sure as they will have to commit in the fall. Times are hard all over, the military is no exception.
     
  7. 2bornot2b

    2bornot2b Member

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    Didn't the class start out at a little over 1200? I would be a little concerned about the rate of attrition. 36% fewer Cadets would result in fewer than 800 graduating. "Attrition happens." but this is crazy! Does anyone else think the rate is high? Flieger's 36% attrition rate is over a 4 year period. This works out to roughly 17% attrition in less than a year. I understand the attrition rate is not constant over the 4 year period. I would guess the highest number drop out in the beginning and the rate maybe tapers off toward graduation, but it still seems like a lot.
     
  8. ElSib

    ElSib Member

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    Statistics as of 12/31/11 (from January newsletter):

    2012 - 1100
    2013 - 1079
    2014 - 1121
    2015 - 1050
     
  9. USAF52

    USAF52 Member

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    2bornot2b, Class of 2015 didn't start out quite that high. There were about 1150 on I Day. A couple didn't even make it past that day, some were medically turned back during Basic after injuries etc, and others left by their choice at different points during Basic. On Acceptance Day, my son's squadron was the only one that was still at full strength--they since have lost a couple I think. I have heard that there are periods of higher attrition--during Basic, after the first semester when cadets don't return after Christmas break, and after the second (sophomore) year when cadets have to sign the commitment letter and will owe the Air Force time if they leave during junior or senior years. Whether that's historically accurate or just AFA folklore I'm not sure.
     
  10. Christcorp

    Christcorp Member

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    Getting down to 4000 cadets by fall is not quite accurate. That is not a possible goal, and the academy understands that.

    If you use the more recent numbers that EISib presented; get rid of all 2012 cadets because they won't be there in the fall. That still leave more than 250 too many; assuming the new class of 2016 only start with 1000. But they are starting with more than that. The average drop out during BCT has been around 7%. That means the class of 2016 should lose about 70 people during BCT. That will bring them down to just below 1000.

    It is very unlikely that approximately 80 "Soon to be Firsties" are going to simply quit. Once an individual starts their Junior year, the only way they leave is going to be if they do something wrong personally or academically and the academy throws them out. That means between the class of 2014 committing and the class of 2015 deciding whether to stay after the first year, that they need to drop approximately 12-13%.

    Is all this possible? Yes, but I doubt very much the academy will be at 4000 students when classes start August 2nd (or 9th - whatever it is this coming year). But I do believe that by this time next year, or by the end of the 2nd semester, they should be down to 4000. Thus, the reason the class of 2017 goes back up a little compared to 2016.
     
  11. bsa07eagle

    bsa07eagle Member

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    2014 is at 1097 as of today.
     
  12. Rage_14

    Rage_14 Member

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    What squad is your son in?
     
  13. kdc246

    kdc246 Member

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    Here is the article I read: http://www.usafa.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123240940

    About half way down in the article, this is the referenced paragraph. I am not disputing what you are saying, just validating what I read from an article on the USAFA site. "New Force Management Measures Announced" (article title) It was an all encompassing article regarding officer strength.

    The Air Force Academy Cadet Wing's end strength will decrease from approximately 4,500 cadets to 4,000 cadets by Oct. 1, 2012. The Academy will accomplish the reduction by reducing class size to 1,120 for the Class of 2015 and 1,050 for the Class of 2016. Beginning with the Class of 2017, the Academy will admit approximately 1,165 cadets in each class. In addition, normal attrition from the Academy will aid in bringing the cadet end strength to 4,000.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2012
  14. aggie83

    aggie83 Member

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    This is a more recent article dated Feb. 11, 2012.

    http://www.gazette.com/articles/wing-133333-cadet-academy.html


    If that article is accurate as to the cadet wing being down to 4000 by Oct. 1, I too questioned how the numbers added up. At the end of December, the total cadet wing totaled 4350. 1100 of those are seniors so if you substract that out and then add in the 1050 cadets expected for the class of 2016, that puts you at 4300 cadets (still 300 over the goal of 4000). Yes, you will lose some from BCT and attrition but history shows nothing even close to getting 300 from those two items.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2012
  15. BobBigBoy

    BobBigBoy Member

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    Here is the article I read: http://www.usafa.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123240940

    In reading the article, the AF is very serious about reducing head count. In reading the USNA forum, they too are cutting by raising the qualifying rate at flight school to 92% achievement despite adding more ships to the fleet. Is it possible that by the time the current classes and the incoming 2016 graduate, they will be offered separation prior to assignment? I know there are plenty of casual graduates at the USAFA now...what will it be like in the future with the glut of officers. Also, is officer training school and ROTC also cut?
     
  16. Mongo

    Mongo Banned

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    I think the 4000 cadet end-strength by October 1 might be slightly misleading. From the article, it appears that this is the targeted goal for the foreseeable future. Traditionally, end-strength is measure immediately prior to graduation, not October 1. This target date would support the other goals as mentioned in the articles.
     
  17. kdc246

    kdc246 Member

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    In my original post I did state that it was a "goal" that I had read. I wasn't trying to fan any flames. My last post was to add some validity to the statement I had previously posted. I am sure USAFA and the U.S. Air Force are working to get to their goals when ever they happen. I am not in the know like the ALO's and other moderators on this site. I try not to pass on things that I have not read or backed up. I am not perfect, far from it. It would please me greatly if these weren't the numbers, that if my incoming DS needed a second chance for some unknown reason it would be there. I can always hope that the good in all cadets is sought and that none are released for minor infractions. I am also a realist though.
     
  18. Christcorp

    Christcorp Member

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    Nothing wrong with what you posted KDC. Just need to realize that that article is more than a year old. In Military/Government/Dog years, that's an eternity.

    I'm sure they would love 125-150 C4C freshman (Class of 2015) to quit after the end of this semester. And for a similar number of C2C sophmore (Class of 2014) to NOT go through commitment and quit after this semester. But that is a much larger percentage than normal.

    The truth is, with the much smaller size of the 2016 class, and the 2015 class heading towards commitment in may 2013, with a certain number choosing to not commit, there will be more than enough to get the cadet wing down to the 4000 mark. Just won't happen by this september.
     
  19. aggie83

    aggie83 Member

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    I hope you are right but the article (if reported correctly) clearly states, "By Sept. 30, the academy must be down to 4,000 cadets, a 10-percent drop." That doesn't sound like next spring to me but I hope you are right because it won't be pretty if that is what has to happen. I have sent the article to my cadet with the heading of "read and heed".
     
  20. 2bornot2b

    2bornot2b Member

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    Yes, it is important to remember that getting in is just the first step. It gets harder after that........ "Read and Heed" indeed!! sending this to my DS as well.
     
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2012

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