Russia/Ukraine

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There is a lot of fearmongering in the media over whether or not a full-scale invasion of Ukraine will happen rather than being localized to Donetsk and Luhansk. In reality, at least in my opinion, there are three possible scenarios for further action by Putin:

1: Putin holds Luhansk and Donetsk (as in the territory that they control now) and either lets the DPR and the LPR exist as self-governing states or absorbs them as two separate oblasts or as one autonomous republic (a possibility that could result from a renewal of the Novorossiya confederation of Luhansk and Donetsk)

2: Putin further enters Ukraine and occupies the claimed territories of Luhansk and Donetsk (shown as light green in the map below). This would make sense considering that it would link with the Crimean Republic and Russia would fully control the Sea of Azov. I see this as a likely outcome of what would happen should Putin choose to further invade Ukraine.

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3: Putin reclaims the territory that the RSFSR gave to the Ukrainian SSR in 1922. I see this as highly unlikely as happening. If it were to happen, I could see it happening in conjunction with what I described in #2.

In any case, I don't see Putin proceeding with a full scale invasion and occupation of all the Ukrainian territories. Such an event would be reminiscent of the German occupation of Czechoslovakia and would warrant an immediate military reaction by NATO. If not the US, then Germany, Poland, and possibly France would respond with a military intervention. This isn't something that Putin is willing to go to a full-scale war over. Just my take.
 
wtayroy said:
2: Putin further enters Ukraine and occupies the claimed territories of Luhansk and Donetsk (shown as light green in the map below). This would make sense considering that it would link with the Crimean Republic and Russia would fully control the Sea of Azov. I see this as a likely outcome of what would happen should Putin choose to further invade Ukraine.

1645657147043.png
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Donbas is in dark Green

wtayroy said:
3: Putin reclaims the territory that the RSFSR gave to the Ukrainian SSR in 1922. I see this as highly unlikely as happening. If it were to happen, I could see it happening in conjunction with what I described in #2.
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Where would that leave Western Ukraine, annexed at the end of WW2, that never ever was part of Russia or the Ukrainian SSR? Would that go back to Poland?
 
cb7893 said:
Donbas is in dark Green


Where would that leave Western Ukraine, annexed at the end of WW2, that never ever was part of Russia or the Ukrainian SSR? Would that go back to Poland?
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Donbas is in dark green. The extension of Novorossiya as a region is in light green, sorry if I was unclear. I was pointing out that Putin could use the claim of the former Novorossiya confederation (unified Donetsk/Luhansk) that existed in 2014-2015 as justification for the invasion of those regions.

As to the former Polish region of Ukraine, I'm not sure that it would matter to Putin if he limits expanding Russia to only Eastern Ukraine. If he does choose to invade the entirety of Ukraine, I'd be surprised if he did give that region back to Poland, especially with its proximity to the strategic region of Zakarpattia/Carpathian Ruthenia
 
Swimmerwannabeplebe2029 said:
I know that we have troops in Ukraine. If any of them get hurt I hope Biden gets taken out of office. This is not our war to fight, but we can help without being there. Prayers to Ukraine 🇺🇦
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This is such a problematic take, what does "our war" even mean. We have commitments, promises made and trusted, alliances that our partners rely on. Was Afghanistan Denmark's war? Probably not but they took seriously their commitment to NATO and went and fought by our side for years, their casualties were proportionately the highest in the coalition but they didn't hesitate. Are we now going to throw up our hands and say Ukraine is not our war. I hope we don't go to war, more than I can say, but I hope we don't abandon our friends even more.
 
Swimmerwannabeplebe2029 said:
I know that we have troops in Ukraine. If any of them get hurt I hope Biden gets taken out of office. This is not our war to fight, but we can help without being there. Prayers to Ukraine 🇺🇦
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Not true. The few U.S. troops in Ukraine were pulled out. We are doing all we can working along with the international community to sanction Russia.
 
NATO has no choice but to increase its budget and preparedness. (The Baltic States must be gripping.) This will mean deploying even more U.S. troops to Europe permanently. The US defense budget needs to be increased. We broke the Soviet economy once by out-producing them during the cold war. We can do if again. I don’t see how Russia can afford this invasion. It will be a drain on their economy with little or no benefit. But, let’s not take our eye off China, an even bigger threat. Remember, the EU can be our biggest partner in using our economic clout for leverage against China. So we need to be a good partner in helping to defend Europe. It is in our interest.
 
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chrisb1113 said:
It appears that he is going for it all, cannot believe all this stuff he has managed to do so far. Russian military should not be doubted that is for sure, dark days ahead.
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If I'm bent on expanding my country's influence, all I need to hear from the USA is:

"..it depends on what it <Russia> does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and then we end up fighting about what to do and not do, etcetera, but if they actually do what they're capable of doing with the force amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia...if they further engrage [sic] me..."

But hey, Putin says he's going in to save the Ukraians from a genocide perpetrated by their government and "denazify" them.
Apparently, they're Nazis. Who knew?
 
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THParent said:
If I'm bent on expanding my country's influence, all I need to hear from the USA is:

"..it depends on what it <Russia> does. It's one thing if it's a minor incursion and then we end up fighting about what to do and not do, etcetera, but if they actually do what they're capable of doing with the force amassed on the border, it is going to be a disaster for Russia...if they further engrage [sic] me..."
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Way to show unity. You should feel a real sense of personal pride. Do you even know who the good guys are?
 
Supersix00 said:
Way to show unity. You should feel a real sense of personal pride. Do you even know who the good guys are?
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Yes, it is definitely important now, more than ever, that we stay united as a country. Unfortunately, our political polarization is a major obstacle, but I still hope we can continue to unite on issues such as this.
 
I am against the invasion by Russia.

But I don’t know who the good guys are. I know who the innocent guys are - citizens of countries.

I am reading 49 sensitive emails from US Intelligence contractor that Wikileaks released. Insane stuff.
 
Wow! My post become wrong hours after it was posted. It'll be interesting to see how far Russia goes into Ukraine, though, and what the U.S/NATO response will be
 
A1Janitor said:
I am against the invasion by Russia.

But I don’t know who the good guys are. I know who the innocent guys are - citizens of countries.

I am reading 49 sensitive emails from US Intelligence contractor that Wikileaks released. Insane stuff.
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If someone only wants to support the good guys and only wants to help the innocent civilians I suggest the Peace Corps not the Marine Corps or any other of the US military.

We have supported and will in the future support some of the worst (Stalin) the world has to offer, some of the most anti democratic individuals and groups (SVN for example or nationalist China or those running Cuba at the time) because it suits our national interest to do so at that point in time.

This is the way of the world
 
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