AFROTC Pilot Slot Odds

The 3.4 is in Mechanical Engineering and top third is the only definitive ranking I have been told but I'm pretty sure its 1,2, or 3 in our class. I've also read raimius's blog a few times and it is incredibly helpful. Also if I don't end up getting ENJJPT or even a pilot slot, I will be okay with that. They are just two things that I would love to get but I know at the end of the day, our job is to be an officer first and flying is just an added benefit.
 
Stealth_81 said:
The Spring fighter VML has a lot of bills for AETC slots in UPT, IFF, and FTU. That may be a sign that they are ramping up production numbers in the training pipeline.
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Or maybe is it a way of addressing pilot complaints about too many deployments? All of those assignments basically means 3-4 yrs of being at home with the fam and only good deal TDYs.

Or otoh it may be that nobody wants to go to places like Del Rio as a grey beard and now they have to force them. Let's be honest what does that V stand for? Vulnerable. In Bullet's career he never wanted to be on the VML. He always worked his next assignment before he was close to being on the VML. Funny story...he was about to have orders dropped on him. He knew he was in that window, he had 7 months left on his assignment, and yes, we were worried he would be hit. What the AF didn't know was he intended to retire. 10/1 he went in at 8 a.m. and hit the button to retire. A day or 2 later he gets a call from a buddy at MPC fighters. The conversation went something like this:
Bullet is it true you are separating?
Yep, why?
Well, because you were the no. 1 on the fighter list for a 1 yr remote and I was about to drop orders on you today!

Talk about Bullet missing the bullet. 21 yrs ADAF and never did a remote in the fighter world is insanely rare. Out of our friends, only one other person did not do a remote. Which in turn goes back to why they maybe offering these bills because between multiple deployments and looking down the barrel of a remote they may feel that this will solve the exodus to the airlines.
~ We had multiple friends that did 7 day opt back in the late 90s because they were tired of doing OSW and ONW. The 1st time is cool, but after checking the box they are happy not to go. These were guys that were volunteering to go UPT and School houses over the airlines, but bc so many were volunteering that route they got stuck with another ops tour. Fingers aka Gen. Goldfein was probably an O5 or O6 at that time. (I know his brother Goldie was an O6 VWC at Elmendorf with us) he probably remembers that exodus as well as I do. Thus, he might be saying...stop the FAIPs and bring in experienced Operational pilots.
~~ FAIPS were around when Bullet was an O1, but than they became a rarity in the mid 90s after the RIF because the pipelines were flowing at the right speed. Let's be honest nobody wants to be a FAIP. They are okay with it because later on they are rewarded with the follow on. IE if you look on baseops.net, many of the T38 FAIPS are now getting orders dropped at the 30 mos marker for 16s. Yes, they will be behind DS, but still insanely young. Had they not done FAIP who knows if they would have ever got into a 16, instead they may have got a Buff. Harder to convert from a Buff to a 35 than a 16 to a 35.

Again, by also reducing FAIP impo and filling it with O3s with 1 op tour, it can help. Yes, I am naive.
1. Columbus is not a horrible place to be stationed at for 3 yrs as a UPT instructor. Nor is SJAFB as an FTU instructor
2. Instructors are not deployed. At O3 rank many are either married with little ones or getting married. They don't want to be deployed 4 mos out of every 12-16 mos.
~ I bet my DIL would be thrilled if DS got sent to Little Rock as an IP at the schoolhouse. It would mean that they are returning back to a city they lived in already and even if he has night flights or early goes, he would not be going TDY every other week like he does now. He returned from a 5 month deployment mid July (?) 2 weeks downtime and they sent him to an upgrade school for 3 weeks. Came back home and was told we need you to fly out next week for a week. She is 28 weeks pregnant and he has yet to go to one doc apptmt. Imagine if he keeps that pace for the next 4 yrs if they send him to Ramstein. That means 7 or 8 years at that type of pace. Schoolhouses, be it UPT, IFF or Airframe gives them down time to recharge their batteries.
3. TDYs are the fun ones. Cross country for UPT to Vegas is not a bad deal. Flyovers for the Carolina Panthers game as a schoolhouse instructor is not shabby either.
4. FAIPs want to go operational. Being a FAIP means delaying the start of your op career.
~ Have you ever heard of any UPT student saying my number 1 choice is FAIP? I haven't. I have heard many happy that they got FAIP because it meant later on they may have more options regarding their airframes, but none that ever said I want to be a T6 pilot out of UPT.

Just mpo.
 
Pima said:
OKAY, I have to ask current cadets if they have heard anything about the impact of OCS? Ac
cording to USAF they are increasing OCS rated slots to 250 per year from @125-150. UPT bases are operating at 110%. So if they up the OCS side how will that impact ROTC cadets going rated? They can't add more students bc they are maxxed currently, so how will they do it?

Secondly, when you place low on your list, don't you risk getting not picked up at all and your only option is to go to the supplemental board?

I think it is important to address both of these aspects.

Finally, the pilot world is short, but when we say that, it is short for experienced pilots not newbies. That whole 700 fighter pilots short is IMPO not impacting you bc you will not wing until 2020. Will not be operational until 2021. OTOH the RPA world is short and will be short for years to come.
~ Goes back to that list aspect when it comes to rating out Pilot CSO RPA and ABM

What is the CoC portion now? Is it still the majority? If so, for the OP, that CoC ranking and their SFT ranking they can take a ding. I think their cgpa and PFA are strong, PCSM is avg., but I am with Alpha those two portions hurt you.

Do you have any flight hours?

I strongly suggest you read Raimius's blog regarding UPT. It his signature tag line (blue link). Getting selected is one thing, surviving 54 weeks out of UPT is a whole different world.
~ ROTC and college is a party life compared to UPT. It is 6 days a week flying/studying/sims 18 hrs a day. Please please read his link, It is not BS, it is real life.
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According to the numbers that came out this year OCS didn't hurt the ROTC pilot slots. Although the RPA slots doubled.
 
Yea I don't understand how OTS this year would effect our ROTC year. The OTS grads commission this year, we won't be commissioning till May 2018.
 
I get that guys, but I am talking about FY17 for AFROTC slots, aka 300s meeting the board in Feb. like the OP. Not FY 16 300s. The change from 125 to 250 OTS would be for FY17 rated board. That board maybe an impact come Feb 2017, which is what the OP is looking at, not at how it had no impact from the new change on FY16 when they did not up the OTS numbers for rated boards.
~ IE a rising sr in college could apply for rated in May and meet the June board, results would be in Aug. expected to report in June 2017. That fills slots for the supplemental. They will also hold a Jan. board too....many could be enlisted.

Eventually for FY 18 commissioning if they continue with 100% growth from 125 to 250 and the pipeline is at 110%, than for the class of 18 something has to give somewhere? right? We are not talking about FY 17 commissions. The OP is FY 18
 
Pima said:
I get that guys, but I am talking about FY17 for AFROTC slots, aka 300s meeting the board in Feb. like the OP. Not FY 16 300s. The change from 125 to 250 OTS would be for FY17 rated board. That board maybe an impact come Feb 2017, which is what the OP is looking at, not at how it had no impact from the new change on FY16 when they did not up the OTS numbers for rated boards.
~ IE a rising sr in college could apply for rated in May and meet the June board, results would be in Aug. expected to report in June 2017. That fills slots for the supplemental. They will also hold a Jan. board too....many could be enlisted.

Eventually for FY 18 commissioning if they continue with 100% growth from 125 to 250 and the pipeline is at 110%, than for the class of 18 something has to give somewhere? right? We are not talking about FY 17 commissions. The OP is FY 18
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Ok that's why I would be confused. The 300s meeting the board this year are FY18 and not FY17.
 
I was tired, thus it was confusing. Sorry.

Basically, the bump in OTS rated is now in effect from a personnel planning for the class of 18, whereas it was not in effect for the class of 17 since the number only changed after the class of 17 AFROTC rated board dropped last Feb.
From an OTS aspect remember that they can apply as a rising senior and the board meets 2x a year. (Jan/Feb & July/Aug). The 1st true OTS rated board bump would have come out last month or so, or 6 mos. after the AFROTC 17s. Now they know that they are officially increasing by 125 rated slots for OTS than my point is that for 18ers that will be boarded this FY (17) MPC has to plan for more coming in from that commissioning source into the rated world for class of 18 AFROTC compared to 17 when their rated board dropped.

I get I make your head spin...it just is hard for me to explain it clearly because OTS boards impact this upcoming FY, and the OP is asking about FY18. I guess the best way to say it is this:
MPC for commissioning yr group 2017 in Sept. 2015 break down for pilot was (throwing numbers here):
650 USAFA
450 AFROTC
125 OTS
Total: 1225 Pilots in the pipeline FY 17 commissioned

Now if they can still only take @1225 for FY 18, and they are upping it to 250 for OTS, MPC must plan for 125 more coming into the pipeline. Like I said that OTS twist announcement came out after the 17s got their rated slot. It had little to no impact on them, but who knows for the 18s because they now have to plan for those 125 that they didn't plan for with the 18s.

My guess is the true sign will be the supplemental board. USAFA dropped yesterday for their C1Cs aka 400s. If the supplemental board drops a good number than my guess would be that they have figured a way to get more through the pipeline with the OTS increase, but if it is low, than my assumption would be that they are keeping the pipeline the same and now adding more in via OTS and that will impact the rate for FY 18.
~ MPC runs with a 5 yr pipeline plan at all times.
 
Pima,

Could you provide the link to the article you read which says the AF is increasing OTS pilot slots from 125 to 250? I tried searching and cannot find it.
 
Pima said:
I was tired, thus it was confusing. Sorry.

Basically, the bump in OTS rated is now in effect from a personnel planning for the class of 18, whereas it was not in effect for the class of 17 since the number only changed after the class of 17 AFROTC rated board dropped last Feb.
From an OTS aspect remember that they can apply as a rising senior and the board meets 2x a year. (Jan/Feb & July/Aug). The 1st true OTS rated board bump would have come out last month or so, or 6 mos. after the AFROTC 17s. Now they know that they are officially increasing by 125 rated slots for OTS than my point is that for 18ers that will be boarded this FY (17) MPC has to plan for more coming in from that commissioning source into the rated world for class of 18 AFROTC compared to 17 when their rated board dropped.

I get I make your head spin...it just is hard for me to explain it clearly because OTS boards impact this upcoming FY, and the OP is asking about FY18. I guess the best way to say it is this:
MPC for commissioning yr group 2017 in Sept. 2015 break down for pilot was (throwing numbers here):
650 USAFA
450 AFROTC
125 OTS
Total: 1225 Pilots in the pipeline FY 17 commissioned

Now if they can still only take @1225 for FY 18, and they are upping it to 250 for OTS, MPC must plan for 125 more coming into the pipeline. Like I said that OTS twist announcement came out after the 17s got their rated slot. It had little to no impact on them, but who knows for the 18s because they now have to plan for those 125 that they didn't plan for with the 18s.

My guess is the true sign will be the supplemental board. USAFA dropped yesterday for their C1Cs aka 400s. If the supplemental board drops a good number than my guess would be that they have figured a way to get more through the pipeline with the OTS increase, but if it is low, than my assumption would be that they are keeping the pipeline the same and now adding more in via OTS and that will impact the rate for FY 18.
~ MPC runs with a 5 yr pipeline plan at all times.
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That what I think also...we'll have to see what the supplemental board does because that should be a sign as to how many they are willing to squeeze in this FY. Crossing my fingers for a HUGE need and ability to put pilots or CSOs through considering I'm up for them!
 
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