My kid had a good application too, but nothing off the chart. Just solid and pretty well rounded: 32+ ACT, top 15% class rank, NHS President, multiple varsity sports, and captain positions, good CFA, and held a job. We are from Michigan. He applied to USMA, USNA, and USAFA, and got appointments to USMA and USAFA in mid January, but was wait listed at USNA, where he remained untill receiving a call from USNA three days before leaving for WP R-DAY, asking if he wanted a spot. (West Point was his first choice so it was a moot point).
My son never got even a LOE from any academy, yet alone a LOA. He did get an email from his RC at WP authorizing an overnight visit though, and at that visit the RC told him he had an appointment. He also told my son that he was sure USAFA and USNA would offer him an appointment, but then told him what he thought the advantages of WP were.
I honestly don't thing there is anyway to predict these things. It depends so much on the competition at each MOC slot for each Academy, and I think also the admissions officer that you get at each academy, as well as other factors beyond your control. All you can do it put the best application in front of them all, and make sure they look at it all when you have positive updates. Then hope for the best.
Waiting sucks, but getting appointments is really cool.