As far as I know Randolph now is only for UAVs. The system was re-jigged recently for UPT. UAVs no longer are part of the UPT airframe drop at UPT bases, they enter on day 1 knowing this is their path. In other words you only go there for a UAV, you won't get a KC135 or a 15 out of Randolph, unlike Vance, Sheppard, Columbus and Laughlin. where you know on day 1 you will wing with anything, but UAV.
That being said, it might come back to Whiting being shut down for AF pilots. They may decide to open another squadron for UPT to pick up the amount that Whiting would have winged, or they may just leave it to the other bases to pick up the difference.
JMPO 0.019754 cents, but I would be shocked if they brought UPT back to Randolph over Laughlin. San Antonio would survive with or without Randolph. Del Rio, TX is a po-dunk town that doesn't even have a Target, they would benefit with more students. The cost of housing there is much cheaper than San Antonio. Dollars and cents from a fiscal budget Randolph costs more per yr to train and house students than Del Rio. In that scenario it is a win-win.
Additionally from a training perspective, and jet noise, it is easier for the AF at Laughlin over Randolph.
A. Del Rio residents want them there so they are less likely to beaachh about the noise from jet engines over their homes. Laughlin closes their gates, Del Rio is gone.
B. It is not as congested. Remember they are training fliers in planes, and San Antonio has also commercial airlines in the "pattern". That is on top of residential, commercial, city life. Better to train students without worrying about a 787 in the pattern and acres upon acres of nothing than somewhere a 787 is coming in for approach and all you can see is commercial RE like malls, Wal-Mart, Target, etc or suburban housing developments built on top of each other. Take a look at where FTUs are...they aren't in areas that are over populated like San Antonio. That is FTU, where they have already winged, with hours of flying time under their belt.
There might not seem to be rhyme nor reason for their actions when selecting bases for expansion or closure, but in reality there is a well thought out method to their madness. If you take a moment at look at all of the BRAC closures over the past 20 yrs. for AF bases, it always came down to 3 things...community, cost, and training.