March 8th, 2011 AROTC Board

Thank you all for your posts. Very helpful. Big decisions to make. I trust whatever path we go on, it will be the right one.
 
The air war in Libya began a few minutes ago.

I believe this conflict will impact the number of scholarships awarded in 2011. Until last week, there was pressure on the DoD budget in the looming negotiations over DoD v. Entitlements. Now, however, I think the argument that "Now is not the time to cut Defense" will have a greater following among lawmakers. Also, if the number of 4-year scholarships were curtailed this year due to budget fears, we may see some welcome "surprises" for walk-on cadets in the fall because of the actions we are taking now as a nation.

It's amazing how things can turn on a dime. Just my opinion.
 
Great Example

patentesq said:
The air war in Libya began a few minutes ago.

I believe this conflict will impact the number of scholarships awarded in 2011. Until last week, there was pressure on the DoD budget in the looming negotiations over DoD v. Entitlements. Now, however, I think the argument that "Now is not the time to cut Defense" will have a greater following among lawmakers. Also, if the number of 4-year scholarships were curtailed this year due to budget fears, we may see some welcome "surprises" for walk-on cadets in the fall because of the actions we are taking now as a nation.

It's amazing how things can turn on a dime. Just my opinion.
Click to expand...

What's bad for one brings blessing to another.
 
MPO, if it would help any scholarship candidate it would be AF and Navy not Army because the last thing Obama or Gates wants is a third ground war. That would mean if they did increase the budget they probably would give more to them over the Army especially since we will be withdrawing from Afganistan.

That being said I do not believe it will have any impact at all re:Libya. The reason I state this is because they don't expect these candidates to serve for 4 more yrs. However, they will need to keep the AD budget high. Two different pots of money. They may increase the DOD budget, but you cannot assume that means they will increase the scholarship budget...one is operational needs, another isn't.
 
Pima said:
MPO, if it would help any scholarship candidate it would be AF and Navy not Army because the last thing Obama or Gates wants is a third ground war. That would mean if they did increase the budget they probably would give more to them over the Army especially since we will be withdrawing from Afganistan.

That being said I do not believe it will have any impact at all re:Libya. The reason I state this is because they don't expect these candidates to serve for 4 more yrs. However, they will need to keep the AD budget high. Two different pots of money. They may increase the DOD budget, but you cannot assume that means they will increase the scholarship budget...one is operational needs, another isn't.
Click to expand...

You may be right, Pima. That said, however, here's what I think (I definitely don't have a crystal ball!):

When the President submitted his budget "request" to Congress last month, he did so in competition with numerous other interest groups, such as AARP, teachers unions, etc., that want more money allocated to non-defense programs. As you know, whenever there is a budget deficit (as opposed to a surplus), every dollar given to defense is a dollar not going to social programs (and vice versa). In terms of decisionmaking, each of the MOCs have the responsibility to listen to the arguments advanced by each group and ultimately cast their vote in the manner they believe is in the best interests of the country. In the budget fight, the President has an edge over the other interest groups in attempting to persuade Congress, because he can try to shape things by threatening a veto. But at the end of the day, Congress can override the veto and thus it is up to Congress to make the ultimate decision on the budget.

Less than one month ago, the real behind-the-scenes debate was defense versus entitlements. Our country was facing a winding down of the sandbox wars, and MOCs were going through a series of CR extensions to position themselves for the real fight ahead. In this fight, there were many GOPers who don't want to cut defense, and there were dems who don't want to cut social programs. Each has a valid point, because there are compelling arguments favoring all of the interests at stake.

But there were a bunch of middle-ground MOCs who were being lobbied hard by all sides (including DoD) in an effort to win them over to one side or another. The lobbying efforts not only came from DoD, AARP, teacher unions, etc., but also came from fellow MOCs looking to secure more votes in their "camp."

I believe that the Libyan conflict will fundamentally change the debate over the coming months. Those who had previously called for Congress cut defense are now more likely now to get a "not now" response. It will be interesting to see the Sunday talk shows tomorrow to see if there is a definite change in tone among lawmakers. I suspect strongly that the budget issue will take a back seat.

I further believe that the President will ask for even more money than before. The Libya action is estimated to cost us $100M to $300M per week (that's a lot of scholarships!). DoD simply does not have the resources to move that money from manpower, bullets, fuel, etc.

The one thing that the Libyan conflict reminds the MOCs is that we live in a very dangerous world. I think this fact ultimately weakens the arguments of those calling for defense cuts and strengthens the President's and DoD's arguments in favor of a larger defense budget. This is not Air Force or Navy specific, but also flows to the benefit of the Army as well.

In this regard, just because there are no ground troops currently slated to go into Libya, MOCs are now is less likely to hack away at our "ground troop" capabilities. The volatility of the Middle East is at the forefront of the minds of our MOCs.

Ultimately, the Libyan conflict may persuade MOCs to agree on a CR for the remainder of FY2011 and Congress may even decide to kick the can until the Presidential election in 2012 (where the budget debate will be front-and-center again).

I think this Libyan conflict will ultimately benefit our kids who are looking for scholarships (both from the March board and walk-ons in the fall) to realize their dream of serving our country but need some financial assistance from DoD to do so.

I also think that the Libyan conflict will remind some ROTC candidates that this whole scholarship business isn't a game -- accepting this commitment really means that they will be asked to put their life on the line some day.

In short, the Libyan conflict is a game-changer in many respects.
 
Very insightful, patentesq. You bring up a lot of good points, especially with Congress.

I'm not really sure how to look at the entire Libyan crisis. As Pima mentioned, this show belongs (For now) to the Air Force and Navy, maybe the Corps as well if they get any of thier fixed- and rotary-wing involved. So, MOCs may be influenced by this to stave off entitlement spending and divert more to defense spending. However, it would appear that the Obama administration wants the American role to be short-term only; I've read in the newspapers that command and control will shift to a European ally. If this is true, then our role in all this may last up to a few weeks to a couple of months.

In my opinion (Probably biased and limited), domestic political concerns will be the foremost concern on the minds of most MOCs. The recent battles in Congress have been over domestic issues, it seems (See healthcare and the muddle in Wisconsin), as well as getting the economy back together and attempting to create a 'New Deal' or 'New Society' solution to what the US is currently facing. I'm not saying that the MOCs don't support our men and women in uniform; I just think that they'll be more focused on playing up to the home crowd on the news than weighing the long-term effects of their actions.
 
CapeRunner said:
Very insightful, patentesq. You bring up a lot of good points, especially with Congress.

I'm not really sure how to look at the entire Libyan crisis. As Pima mentioned, this show belongs (For now) to the Air Force and Navy, maybe the Corps as well if they get any of thier fixed- and rotary-wing involved. So, MOCs may be influenced by this to stave off entitlement spending and divert more to defense spending. However, it would appear that the Obama administration wants the American role to be short-term only; I've read in the newspapers that command and control will shift to a European ally. If this is true, then our role in all this may last up to a few weeks to a couple of months.

In my opinion (Probably biased and limited), domestic political concerns will be the foremost concern on the minds of most MOCs. The recent battles in Congress have been over domestic issues, it seems (See healthcare and the muddle in Wisconsin), as well as getting the economy back together and attempting to create a 'New Deal' or 'New Society' solution to what the US is currently facing. I'm not saying that the MOCs don't support our men and women in uniform; I just think that they'll be more focused on playing up to the home crowd on the news than weighing the long-term effects of their actions.
Click to expand...

Very excellent points, CapeRunner!
 
Patentesq,

In the end of the day, the fact is these scholarships are 4 yrs out from AD life. They need to balance a budget, and right now they can give 0 out this yr, and next yr give 1000 out for 3 yr IS. They could give out in 2 yrs 2 yr IS, and bump up OTS.

This war is only going to save IMPO two groups...AF ROTC 11/12 and NROTC 11/12

Obama is going to do everything humanly possible not to put boots on the ground. He wants to be re-elected and there is no way in Hades, IMPO that he can get that with these factors:
1. Gitmo still open
2. Still in Iraq
3. Still in Afghanistan
4. Now in Libya

Independents don't want this and they are the swing voters. He also needs to bring out his base, and they don't want this either. Thus, he needs to get in and out with any US casualties. Boots on the ground is the last thing he would want.

The AFROTC 11/12 and maybe 13, who were all targets of the AF force shape re-structuring are a different issue. Our DS who is on spring break stated 13 is in the bulls eye for SFT. This development may save them, not so much for getting SFT this yr, but increasing the turnbacks of 13 for next yr.

People forget that the Army left the sandbox in 93, and returned a decade later. The AF on the other hand never left since 1989, nor did the Navy.

If funds are going to be pumped in for FY 11-12 it will be for those 2 branches to meet combat missions/needs in essence No Fly Zone which the Army is at best a small fraction compared to their sister branches.

JMPO.
 
any news?

Has anyone heard any news as to when the scholarships will be announced?! Me and my family are patiently waiting...for now!!! :eek:
 
Welcome to the military jb.

Hurry up and wait.

The reality is this thread will light up like a christmas tree when any announcement occurs. Until that time all you can do is discuss current events or bite your nails.

Trust me when the results come out people will post.
 
Pima said:
Welcome to the military jb.

Hurry up and wait.

The reality is this thread will light up like a christmas tree when any announcement occurs. Until that time all you can do is discuss current events or bite your nails.

Trust me when the results come out people will post.
Click to expand...

Thanks Pima, waiting...waiting....waiting...and wait, waiting some more!!! :wink:
 
You may not believe this, but this is the easiest of the waiting periods. Yes, it is a fiscal issue, however, you can still get loans if you don't get that scholarship. Later on, it is a career issue, and the wait is just as long, yet there are less back up plans available.

That's just the way the military works. Sorry.
 
Pima said:
You may not believe this, but this is the easiest of the waiting periods. Yes, it is a fiscal issue, however, you can still get loans if you don't get that scholarship. Later on, it is a career issue, and the wait is just as long, yet there are less back up plans available.

That's just the way the military works. Sorry.
Click to expand...

I'm used to it LOL. Grew up in an Army family!! :thumb:
 
I got some good news so I thought I would share it with those on here, I recieved an email from one of the schools I applied to stateing that they should have the AROTC scholarship website updated this Friday at 5 oclock.
 
stillhopeful said:
I got some good news so I thought I would share it with those on here, I recieved an email from one of the schools I applied to stateing that they should have the AROTC scholarship website updated this Friday at 5 oclock.
Click to expand...

Was the email from YOUR Roo?
 
I am greatly disapointed to say that I recieved a second email saying that it was a mistake, and instead it was meant that the school would be sending out admission results this friday. I am very sorry to get anyones hopes up, as i know i was very disapointed on getting this second email
 
stillhopeful said:
I am greatly disapointed to say that I recieved a second email saying that it was a mistake, and instead it was meant that the school would be sending out admission results this friday. I am very sorry to get anyones hopes up, as i know i was very disapointed on getting this second email
Click to expand...

One thing most of us have already learned....It hasn't happened until you have it in writing :) No biggy
 
stillhopeful said:
I am greatly disapointed to say that I recieved a second email saying that it was a mistake, and instead it was meant that the school would be sending out admission results this friday. I am very sorry to get anyones hopes up, as i know i was very disapointed on getting this second email
Click to expand...

Good to hear you will get an admissions decision on one of your schools soon. It doesn't take much to get a BIG reaction on the thread. Your heart was in the right place to share with us:thumb: The results will come, some day soon(remember the 1/4/11 board has until 3/31 to return their choices so its unlikely results will be released prior to that date)

Not a lot going on in Ohioland...waiting and more waiting, of course, but this board has been very different for us, not as intense. Heard a great Dr. Seuss quote I'd forgotten earliery today: Don't cry because it is over, smile because it happened. Each experience adds to who we are - good or bad - so the AROTC application process will be part of my family's history no matter the outcome. DS is working out, studying and getting ready to graduate(40 something days left/20 something until AP exams....)

Take care.:smile:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top